The Browns are 2.5 point home dogs this week against a team that will have - at best - a limited Calvin Johnson. And without Calvin, that team is not good.
You take away Calvin, and Matthew Stafford becomes Brandon Weeden. The No-Josh-Gordon Weeden. He holds the ball too long, he makes inaccurate throws, he makes poor decisions.
Now, he does have a second weapon, which would be short passes to Reggie Bush, and that is why you see a somewhat improved Detroit offense this year. Controlling him will be the key to the game. If the Defense is able to get pressure on Stafford and neutralize Bush, Cleveland should be able to pull the game out. Green Bay was able to do it last week, and the Browns have a better overall D than the Pack.
I really wish it were 3.5 instead of 2.5, but if there's a decent chance that Clevetown wins it outright, then the points won't matter anyway. Take the Browns and the 2.5.
And if the Browns do win this game and move to 4-2... whoa, this city gonna forget every sperm is sacred.
| Let the heathen spill theirs |
| On the dusty ground. |
| God shall make them pay for |
| Each sperm that can't be found. |
Now to the picks... this BT fellow has quietly amassed an impressive record against the spread after going 9.5-2.5 the last two weeks. He's got a solid lead now, and stockbrokers have been calling him for investment advice.
Last week:
| BT: 5-1 |
| DJC: 3-3 |
| MO: 3-3 |
| Me: 2-4 |
YTD:
| BT: 18-12 |
| Me: 14.5-15.5 |
| MO: 14.5-15.5 |
| DJC: 12-18 |
This week's games (lines provided by VegasInsider.com):
| OKL -14 at TEX |
| NW +10.5 at WISC |
| ORE -14 at WASH |
| MICH -2.5 at PSU |
| OAK +9 at KC |
| PHI -1 at TB |
| GB -3 at BAL |
| DET -2.5 at CLE |
| CAR +2.5 at MIN |
| STL +7.5 at HOU |
| PIT +2.5 at NYJ |
| CIN -7 at BUF |
| TEN +13.5 at SEA |
| JAX +27.5 at DEN |
| ARI +10.5 at SF |
| NO +2.5 at NE |
| WAS +5.5 at DAL |
Bonus - No bonus this week, we pick a 6th game.
BT:
OKL -14 (at TEX): You should hear the UT folks calling for Mack Brown’s head. I think Case McCoy is starting too. Take the Sooners, give the points.
NW +10.5 (at WISC): I love the ‘Cats… RAAOOOOOWWWWW, and hate the Badgers. Take the points and men in purple.
MIN -2.5 (CAR): I still love Adrian Peterson. Vikings over the Panthers.
NYJ -2.5 (PIT): Two bad teams, one bad game. I can’t believe this, but I think the Jets can beat the Steelers. I mean how in the hell did they beat Atlanta? And I watched the game. 0-6 does have a nice ring to it…. If you hate the Steelers as much as me.
JAX +27.5 (at DEN): 27.5 point spread???? Wow. Jags rise up and…. cover (barely).
NO +2.5 (at NE): Brady blows.
DJC:
NW +10.5 (at WISC): They looked decent against the Buckeyes. Not sure about Wisconsin yet.
MICH -2.5 (at PSU): PSU just looks bad.
DEN -27.5 (JAX): Curious if they will win by 50 to get more votes in the AP Poll.
NO +2.5 (at NE): No Gronk again? Ouch.
GB -3 (at BAL): I think Lacy is going to be a great back.
OAK +9 (at KC): TP, are you with me?!
MO:
OKL -14 (at TEX): I picked Bevo once this season, they burned me. Now I’m going to see if Bevo is on the menu tonight, preferably NOT burnt.
ORE -14 (at WASH): Oregon vs. Florida State is what I want to see. I know it won’t happen, but I’m picking for what I am wanting, since Maui and Natalie Portman weren’t options… this time…
CIN -7 (at BUF): I would love to see Thad Lewis light up the Bengals. As much as I want to pick against the on again, off again Bengals, it’s hard with all the injuries the Bills have… Side note, props to Mr. Lewis and the fist bump he gave my son (we are both pulling for you).
SEA -13.5 (TEN): Had to take a home favorite, why not Hawks.
JAX +27.5 (at DEN): Henne to the rescue (this selection is pretty much solely for the guy who told me that Chad would win 6 Super Bowls with the Dolphins), plus someone had to be silly enough to take the points.
NO +2.5 (at NE): This will be the time the Patriots play well, after I picked them last week and they played awful.
Yours Truly:
ORE -14 (at WASH): Washington did give Stanford a pretty good run last week, but this is a different level of team in Oregon. Marcus Mariota might be my favorite QB coming out this year, and, yes, that includes the immortal Mr. Bridgewater.
OAK +9 (at KC): I just can't bring myself to believe in the Chiefs. They've beaten - what? - one team with a winning record (the Titans), and that was against their backup QB. I'm not saying that the Oaklands will win this game, but I think they can cover.
NE -2.5 (NO): The Pats have been playing like crap and the Saints have been playing great. So naturally I'll take NE to cover.
PIT +2.5 (at NYJ): The Jets (and Geno Smith) are up and down and all over the place. Since he/they played well last week, I probably should assume they will blow aardvarks this week. And the Steelers gotta win sometime. But, really, this is more one of those picks that I want to lose - there isn't enough pain in human history that would be too much for that franchise and their fans.
HOU -7.5 (STL): I'm guessing a lot of peeps be layin' off this one cuz of the half-point-over-TD line, but I think a very angry Texas Residents team takes out their frustrations on the surprisingly bad Lambs. I even benched Sam Bradford in my league for... ugh... Geno Smith. Be afraid, Geno. The last guy I picked up and plugged in lasted about 5 snaps against Buffalo before being done for the year.
ARI +10.5 (at SF): This is probably a stupid pick, but Zona's D isn't half bad, and Colin Kaepernick has been struggling with his passing game the last few weeks. As with Oaktown, I don't see the Red Birds winning this game, but I think they can keep it within 10 in a lower-scoring contest.