The Browns of Cleveland so impressed Vegas last week that the oddsmakers made them the highest point spread of the week. Yes, even with all Green Bay's WR's either dead or dying, the Browns are still 10 point dogs, bigger underdogs than even the mercurial Jaguars.
I'm not sure if it was the consistent QB play, the stellar run game, or the impeccable Defense that most impressed bettors last week. That second Half... man, I've not seen such an un-dominating performance in a long time. It was more fun than watching my cat vomit.
So the standard thought I've seen bandied about this week is that the Browns D - which was absolutely shredded and exposed up the middle - will be able to slow down the WR-deficient Packers. As if guarding the WR's was their problem.
No, their problem would be guarding the TE's and RB's out of the backfield. Craig Robertson looked more like Craig Robinson last week, and TJ Ward/D'Qwell Jackson/Tashaun Gipson weren't much better, basically allowing a pedestrian QB such as Matt Stafford (who, I will admit, is playing better this year) to pick them apart with seeming ease on 5-10 yard routes up the gut. S-L-long-O you ain't got no get up and go, you Slow, hey hey, you Slow.
And if you then have to go up against maybe the best QB in the league... well, start Jermichael Finley in your fantasy league this week. And take the over on this game - Weeden's gonna make some mistakes trying to keep up with the Discount Double Check guy.
As for the picks, well, last week was kind of a blood bath. DJC went an incredible 0-6, which is probably as hard to do as going 6-0. I led the way with 3-3, but one of my wins was due to going against my better nature, so my "what-I-think-will-happen" was only 2-4, and with everyone suffering a rash of pain on picks that I generally thought were solid, I'm going to employ a new tactic this week - make my picks, then take the opposite.
Which, in theory, also means take the Browns to cover.
Last Week:
| Me: 3-3 |
| MO: 2-4 |
| BT: 1-5 |
| DJC: 0-6 |
YTD:
| BT: 19-17 |
| Me: 17.5-18.5 |
| MO: 16.5-19.5 |
| DJC: 12-24 |
This week's games (lines provided by VegasInsider.com):
| Akron -7.5 at Miami(OH) |
| UCLA +6 at Stanford |
| FSU -3 at Clemson |
| NE -4 at NYJ |
| SD -7.5 at JAX |
| HOU +6.5 at KC |
| CIN +3 at DET |
| BUF +8 at MIA |
| CHI pick at WAS |
| DAL +3 at PHI |
| STL +6 at CAR |
| TB +7 at ATL |
| SF -4 at TEN |
| CLE +10 at GB |
| BAL +1.5 at PIT |
| DEN -6.5 at IND |
Bonus - Over/Under on the Browns giving up 39.5 points to Green Bay.
BT:
CLEM +3 (FSU): Florida St. giving 3 to Clemson in Death Valley. I’ll take the Tigers. Really looking forward to this game.
CHI pick (at WAS): Da Bears. RG3 isn’t right and the Skins D couldn’t stop a replacement offense. How is this a pickem game?
SF -4 (at TEN): I’ll take the Niners and my boy Vernon Davis. Although the Titans are improved.
PIT -1.5 (BAL): Pittsburgh isn’t dead yet. Where has Hey Diddle Diddle gone? Plus if I pick the Steelers, they are more likely to lose. Give the points, take the Squeelers.
MIA -8 (BUF): I’m struggling with the 5th game. I don’t like any of them. Giving 8 points to the Bills seems like a lot. But Miami is coming off a bye and I’d much rather have Tannehill than Weeden.
Bonus: UNDER. Reason – the Browns can cover the Packers depleted receiving corps. But if Weeden throws 2 picks or more, it could get ugly.
DJC:
UCLA +6 (at Stanford): Todd Hundley is awesome.
FSU -3 (at Clemson): FSU is going to destroy Clemson.
CHI pick (at WAS): Bear down!
CLE +10 (at GB): Who will catch the ball for GB?
PIT -1.5 (BAL): Don't you feel bad for Ben?
Bonus: UNDER.
MO:
BAL +1.5 (at PIT): This has to be a sucker bet right?
KC -6.5 (HOU): The Chiefs are tough at home, and Houston is a train about to derail, sounds like 7 points to me.
NE -4 (at NYJ): The Patriots are like tequila, no matter how awful I feel the next day, I keep going back for more.
DAL +3 (at PHI): These games make me wish my dentist was open on Sundays…
CHI pick ()at WAS): These games make me wish my dentist was open on Sundays…
Bonus: UNDER. GB is beat to hell offensively, so unless the Browns go three and out every series, I don’t see the Packers scoring tons.
Yours Truly:
CLEM +3 (FSU): The reason the #3 team in the country is a home dog is that FSU just looks damn good. I don't see how the Noles don't hop OSU if they win this one. Which I think they will. Opposite day, remember?
HOU +6.5 (at KC): First time starter on the road against that Defense? And the line is at the perfect level for the Chiefs to cover.
JAX +7.5 (SD): I had promised to take whomever played the Jags until it failed me, but I laid off last week since a 27.5 point spread is nothing to be messing with. Back on the wagon with this game... sort of.
IND +6.5 (DEN): Peyton Manning is out to extract his pound of flesh from Jim Irsay's flesh-abundant ass, back in the dome where he grew up with the fans that probably can't find it in their hearts to cheer against him (at least not whole-heartedly). And while Andrew Luck still looks good, the offensive weapons around him are mediocre at best, it seems. Trent Richardson? Guffaw.
PIT -1.5 (BAL): Because they finally won a game, against the ucking-fay Jets, no less, suddenly everyone has forgotten how bad the Steelers are? This bet is golden, hell, the Ravens don't even have to cover any points. Some nutty bettors out there. Naturally, this one hurts the most taking the opposite - feels like I'm throwing this pick away.
Bonus: OVER. Cuz I'm pissed at the Defense and making misguided decisions based on emotion.
In addition, the outcry over the lack of the Rankings article this week (I was very busy) was hearty and hale, the responses were literally uncountable, so, to close this out, here are the NFL rankings through Week 6:
| Team | Wins | Losses | Ties | WP | Avg_PF | Avg_PA | Diff | Rank_PF | Rank_PA | Rank_Final |
| Kansas City | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 | 25.33 | 10.83 | 87 | 9 | 1 | 1 |
| Seattle | 5 | 1 | 0 | .833 | 26.17 | 15.67 | 63 | 8 | 3 | 2 |
| New Orleans | 5 | 1 | 0 | .833 | 26.83 | 17.17 | 58 | 7 | 6 | 3 |
| Indianapolis | 4 | 2 | 0 | .667 | 24.67 | 16.33 | 50 | 11 | 5 | 4 |
| Denver | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 | 44.17 | 26.33 | 107 | 1 | 24 | 5 |
| New England | 5 | 1 | 0 | .833 | 20.83 | 16.17 | 28 | 22 | 4 | 6 |
| San Francisco | 4 | 2 | 0 | .667 | 24.17 | 19.67 | 27 | 13 | 9 | 7 |
| Green Bay | 3 | 2 | 0 | .600 | 27.40 | 22.80 | 23 | 5 | 16 | 8 |
| Detroit | 4 | 2 | 0 | .667 | 27.00 | 23.33 | 22 | 6 | 19 | 9 |
| Dallas | 3 | 3 | 0 | .500 | 30.50 | 25.33 | 31 | 2 | 21 | 10 |
| Chicago | 4 | 2 | 0 | .667 | 28.67 | 26.83 | 11 | 3 | 26 | 11 |
| Carolina | 2 | 3 | 0 | .400 | 21.80 | 13.60 | 41 | 19 | 2 | 12 |
| Cincinnati | 4 | 2 | 0 | .667 | 20.17 | 18.50 | 10 | 23 | 7 | 13 |
| Tennessee | 3 | 3 | 0 | .500 | 21.33 | 19.17 | 13 | 21 | 8 | 14 |
| San Diego | 3 | 3 | 0 | .500 | 24.00 | 23.00 | 6 | 14 | 17 | 15 |
| Baltimore | 3 | 3 | 0 | .500 | 22.33 | 21.50 | 5 | 18 | 13 | 16 |
| Miami | 3 | 2 | 0 | .600 | 22.80 | 23.40 | -3 | 16 | 20 | 17 |
| Philadelphia | 3 | 3 | 0 | .500 | 27.67 | 29.83 | -13 | 4 | 29 | 18 |
| Cleveland | 3 | 3 | 0 | .500 | 19.67 | 20.83 | -7 | 24 | 11 | 19 |
| St. Louis | 3 | 3 | 0 | .500 | 23.50 | 25.67 | -13 | 15 | 22 | 20 |
| Arizona | 3 | 3 | 0 | .500 | 18.50 | 21.17 | -16 | 25 | 12 | 21 |
| N.Y. Jets | 3 | 3 | 0 | .500 | 17.33 | 22.50 | -31 | 29 | 15 | 22 |
| Atlanta | 1 | 4 | 0 | .200 | 24.40 | 26.80 | -12 | 12 | 25 | 23 |
| Buffalo | 2 | 4 | 0 | .333 | 22.67 | 26.17 | -21 | 17 | 23 | 24 |
| Oakland | 2 | 4 | 0 | .333 | 17.50 | 22.00 | -27 | 28 | 14 | 25 |
| Minnesota | 1 | 4 | 0 | .200 | 25.00 | 31.60 | -33 | 10 | 30 | 26 |
| Pittsburgh | 1 | 4 | 0 | .200 | 17.60 | 23.20 | -28 | 27 | 18 | 27 |
| Tampa Bay | 0 | 5 | 0 | .000 | 12.80 | 20.20 | -37 | 31 | 10 | 28 |
| Washington | 1 | 4 | 0 | .200 | 21.40 | 28.60 | -36 | 20 | 27 | 29 |
| Houston | 2 | 4 | 0 | .333 | 17.67 | 29.50 | -71 | 26 | 28 | 30 |
| N.Y. Giants | 0 | 6 | 0 | .000 | 17.17 | 34.83 | -106 | 30 | 32 | 31 |
| Jacksonville | 0 | 6 | 0 | .000 | 11.67 | 33.00 | -128 | 32 | 31 | 32 |