2008 Recap:
The Rays scrapped the Devil from their names and heaven apparently shined down upon them. Despite having the major's second-lowest payroll in '08 (fellow Floridians the Marlins won the cheap-skate contest), the Rays went from only 66 wins in 2007 to 97 in 2008, winning the A.L. East over the vaunted Yankees and Red Sox. The made it to the World Series and were beaten by the Philadelphia Phillies 4 games to 1, but it was an overall successful and surprising season nonetheless.
2009 Outlook:
The Rays look much improved in 2009, adding three veteran arms to an already great bullpen and some power to an already powerful lineup. But the Yankees spent close to half a billion dollars and the Red Sox did some bargain shopping and brought in some seasoned vets of their own, so the Rays will be hard pressed to prove that they really can keep up with the big spenders of the A.L. East.
Hello: DH/ OF Pat Burrell, RHP Jason Isringhausen, OF Matt Joyce, 2B Adam Kennedy, RHP Joe Nelson, LHP Brian Shouse
Goodbye: OF Rocco Baldelli, OF Cliff Floyd, OF Jonny Gomes, UTIL Eric Hinske, RHP Edwin Jackson
If the Rays Were an 80's Movie They'd Be:
Staying Alive. As far as sequels go, this may be one of the worst ones ever. While I don't necessary think that the Rays will be this awful in 2009, I think their playoff hopes will be like the title of the movie states, just staying alive. Also, something to remember: besides being directed and written by Sylvester Stallone, the movie made some cash, earning $65 million placing it in the top ten of 1983. I feel comfortable putting the Rays in there, too, as long as they strut their stuff, a la Tony Manero.
The 2009 Projected Lineup:
LF Carl Crawford
CF B.J. Upton
3B Evan Longoria
1B Carlos Pena
DH Pat Burrell
RF Matt Joyce / Gabe Gross
C Dioner Navarro
2B Akinori Iwamura
SS Jason Bartlett
It really is amazing and even more a testament to the cliché that "every dog has its day" because the Rays day was certainly last year. The team only hit .260, ranking them 21st in the majors, and switch-hitting catcher Dioner Navarro was the only Ray to sniff the .300 mark (.295). They did showcase some power however, ranking 9th in the bigs with 210 homers, paced by their corner infielders Carlos Pena (31) and Evan Longoria (27). Where they really excelled was moving the runners along, leading the majors with 142 steals, led by second baseman B.J. Upton (44), left fielder Carl Crawford (25), and shortstop and team MVP (really!) Jason Bartlett (20).
Pat Burrell and Matt Joyce were brought in to hopefully fill in the DH and RF holes and provide some more pop. Burrell is coming off a World Series championship in Philly and a 33 homerun output in production. "Pat the Bat" averaged 28 homers a season in his 9 year Philly career, so he should do quite well in comfy Tropicana Field. Joyce hit 12 homers in 242 at bats in Detroit last year, and will fight Gabe Gross, a career .242 hitter, for time in the outfield.
Upton is the key to an offensive resurgence. He saw his batting average drop 27 points to .273 last year, and his homers drop from 24 in '07 to only 9 in '08. The silver lining: his steals doubled from 22 in '07.
The 2009 Projected Rotation and Closer:
RHP Jamie Shields
LHP Scott Kazmir
RHP Matt Garza
RHP Andy Sonnanstine
LHP David Price
RHP Troy Percival
The heart of the Rays wild run is found almost in its entirety with their young and impressive pitching staff. The 2009 rotation will be led by the ultra consistent righty Jamie Shields, who is the quintet's oldest player at 27, with its youngest being the former Vandy star David Price at a ripe young 23 years of age. Shields has pitched exactly 215 innings in each of the last two years, and while he saw his strikeouts drop by 24 to only 160 last year, his ERA dropped from 3.85 to 3.56 and his wins increased to 14 from 12. Price though may be the key to the Rays pitching staff improving on last year's gaudy numbers (MLB's 3rd best ERA at 3.82). The hope is that he can back up his dazzling '08 (12 Ks and a 1.93 ERA in 14 innings) because he'll be replacing Edwin Jackson, traded to the Tigers for Matt Joyce, who himself won a respectable 14 games for the Rays last year.
The rest of the staff is made up of lefty ace (when healthy) Scott Kazmir, former Twin Matt Garza, and ex-Kent State standout Andy Sonnanstine. Kazmir definitely has more upside than Shields because of his ridiculous strike out numbers (783 in 723 career innings) and low career ERA (3.49) but the torque on his shoulder and elbow always seem to reduce his innings and land him on the DL (only 27 starts last year). Garza is a fun to watch guy with his bulldog demeanor (he got into a dugout fist fight with his catcher last year), and Sonnanstine is if nothing else consistent, pitching only one shutout yet ending the year with a fairly decent 4.38 ERA. Both finished the year with 11 wins.
The Rays bullpen has a series of power arms leading to closer Troy Percival, led by Australian Grant Balfour, J.P. Howell, and Dan Wheeler. Wheeler saved 13 games last year for the Rays and ended the year with a 3.12 ERA, and may be counted on to save some more games this year when greybeard Percival can't seal the deal. Howell and Balfour are the intriguing arms though, both averaging above a strikeout per inning. As a failed lefty starter, Howell entered the year sporting a 7.59 ERA from '07, but he took to his new bullpen job like Paris Hilton to paparazzi photographers. In 89 innings he struck out 92 and posted a 2.22 ERA. Balfour may be the unquestioned future closer of the Rays despite his age at 31. In 58 innings the righty struck out 82 batters while earning a ridiculous 1.54 ERA.
The future may be soon for Balfour with Troy Percival manning the 9th inning currently. Last year Percival had 28 saves, with 27 coming before a late August knee injury. He missed the entire Rays World Series run, and this spring he's struggling to return from back surgery. When he was healthy last year, he put up a 4.53 ERA in 45 innings. Former closer Jason Isringhausen was signed during free agency, but he's 36 and coming off a miserable year in St. Louis (5.70 ERA). Don't count on him contributing much.
So Magic Eight Ball, will the Rays prove they're no fluke and emerge as a constant force to be reckoned with in ‘09? "Cannot predict now."