2012/2013 Cleveland Cavaliers & NBA Preview

Another NBA season is upon us and the staff of theclevelandfan.com is ready to share their thoughts regarding the fortunes of the Cavaliers, whether or not the Wine & Gold can reach the playoffs as well as which teams out there have the best chance of knocking off Miami for the NBA title. And when it comes to the NBA MVP award, well, it's likely LeBron's to lose. But if he does the staff has some thoughts on who might take it from King James.

Let's tip it off!

Demetri Inemboidis

Cavs Record and Playoff Potential:

With the Cavs having their third opening night since the franchise experienced nuclear winter in 2010, many fans are eager to assume that a playoff berth is in the short future.  After all, LeBron James didn’t make the playoffs until his third season completed.  The Cavs will most likely trot out a starting lineup on Tuesday that features three top four draft picks since 2011.  Kyrie Irving is better than anybody could have expected, Dion Waiters adds a new offensive dimension to the Cavalier back court and Tristan Thompson can play off of both of them and utilize his energy playing defense and rebounding.  Anderson Varejao is healthy again and had a very good showing with the Brazilian national team this past summer.  Veterans who meant well but simply were not that good are off of the team.  Despite all of these changes, Cavaliers fans would be smart to not get their hopes up for a playoff run.  The Cavs are an incredibly young team.  Their average age is 24.2 years, which makes them the third youngest squad in the league.  If there’s one universal truth in the NBA, it is that young teams generally do not excel.  The Oklahoma City Thunder had a 2-24 record after 26 games into the 2008-2009 season.  Even if Irving, Waiters, Thompson and Zeller exceed expectation, they will need time to learn how to play winning basketball and form chemistry.  The Cavs may never have the most amount of talent on the floor, but they can eventually become a team that is bigger than the sum of its parts if they can develop chemistry. 

In addition, the Cavs were really bad last year.  They were ranked 27th in offensive efficiency, 26th in defensive efficiency, 29th in field goal percentage, 27th in opponent field goal percentage and 22nd in opponent offensive rebound rate.  The only areas where the Cavs excelled were in free throws and offensive rebounding.  Having said that, grabbing a lot of offensive rebounds is a moot point when they give them up on the other end.   One year of development for Irving and Thompson with the addition of Waiters and Zeller will not be enough to overcome all of the issues that the team had last year. 

I predict a 30-52 season for the Cavs.  If everything goes right, they can win as many as 35 games.  Kyrie Irving is a phenomenal closer and the Cavs are a much better team with Anderson Varejao healthy.  There are many factors that will play into their final record that are impossible to predict at the moment.  What I do know is that I wouldn’t start printing off those playoff tickets yet. 

Team Most Likely to Knock Off Miami:

Sadly, this championship is Miami’s to lose.  They won it last year and improved their team improved in the off season.  LeBron James is playing at an unheard of level (even by his standards).  If I had to pick one team, I would probably go with the Los Angeles Lakers.  Their starting lineup is ridiculously good.  The only thing standing in their way between a finals appearance is their lackluster bench, health and coaching.  I’ve always been a supporter of Mike Brown, but this team is “too good to fail” and there is a lot of pressure for him to win.  The situation that he finds himself in is not an ideal one for Brown and it could backfire. 

Player Most Likely to Usurp LeBron James as MVP:

The key to winning an MVP award is to be on an elite team, but one that is not too top-heavy.  The award typically goes to the best player on a great team who did more with less.  Because of this, I think that Kevin Durant is most likely to win the MVP award after LeBron James.  Voters will likely have a difficult time deciding if Dwight Howard is the best player on the Lakers (let alone in the whole league) and Kevin Durant is going to be expected to do more for the Thunder with the departure of James Harden.

Keys to the Cavs Season:

The Cavs aren’t going to make the playoffs.  The front office has made it perfectly clear that they are willing to be patient and will not rush into becoming too good too fast.  The last thing Dan Gilbert wants to hear in July of 2018 is that Kyrie Irving had to leave Cleveland because he didn’t have enough help.  What the Cavs need to take away from the season is for the team to stay healthy and for the young guys to develop personal skills and team chemistry.  The best possible ending to this season is another high lottery draft pick and for the Cavs to maintain their flexibility moving forward. In addition, I hope that they can amass some more assets and continue on their trajectory.  This season will probably not be a fun one with overall team success, but things are going to change for the better sooner than later and we are incredibly fortunate to watch Kyrie Irving play for the Wine and Gold.  

So here we are in 2012. The Heat have actually added players and the Cavs have blown yet another #4 draft pick on someone who is a huge reach loaded with questions. Oh, wait, you like the picks of Tristan Thompson and Dion Waiters? Well sir or ma'am, I hate to tell you this: you may find your baby "breathtaking" (ala Seinfeld), but everyone else thinks he's the most hideously grotesque thing she's ever seen, and we love babies. Thompson's upside is perhaps closer to Jon Koncak than a Karl Malone or even a Dennis Rodman. He can't shoot, has no moves so he can't really score, and doesn't have the size or instincts to be a great rebounder. This was all known coming out of college, yet somehow the mushrooms that Chris Grant consumed on draft night indicated he was the 4th best player in that draft. Waiters, meanwhile, seems more set to become Mel Turpin than the Dwayne Wade he was advertised to be, with McDonalds and Budweiser being the obvious staples of his offseason conditioning program he undertook to prove all the doubters wrong. 

I fully expect the 2012-2013 to be a trainwreck for people in Cleveland.

Cavs Record and Playoff Potential:

Here's the problem with the Cavs. You could literally triple team Kyrie Irving every possession and they won't make you pay. Best case scenario Waiters develops an outside presence, Ty Zeller gets consistent with his midrange jumper and Alonzo Gee... yeah, I can't even type that. This is going to be ugly on the offensive end. We may see multiple offensive performances (you can pronounce "offensive" either way) where the Cavs score in the low 60s. Who is definitely worse than Cleveland this year? Charlotte certainly is - they are analogously Haiti to the downtown Detroit that is the Cavs' current state. The Wizards and Magic are too. That's it. The Suns, Pistons, Warriors, Raptors, Rockets, Kings, and Hornets will all suck at about the same level as us. We have a better superstar than any of them, but Irving is more alone on his island than Tom Hanks in Cast Away(Varejao is Wilson, by the way). Being honest, the Cavs are breathtakingly bad. Playoff potential: zero. Projected record 28-54.

Overview and Keys to Cavs Season:

Unfortunately, we’re back to an 82 game schedule in 2012/13, which means more time for the cream to rise to the top and the muck to sink to the sea floor. The only advantage the current Cavs possess—youth and conditioning (Dion Waiters not withstanding)—won’t really open the doors for any flukiness the way it might have for a scrappy young club a year ago. So, to get a real sense of what you’re going to see at the Q this year, you really needn’t look any further than the spectacle we’ve all been enjoying over at Browns Stadium. The script essentially reads the same: the more players you have who aren’t old enough to legally drink, the more your fanbase will need to drink in order to watch them. Like the Browns, the Cavs have roughly one and a half marquee play makers, zero free agent acquisitions of real consequence, and remarkably low expectations. We have grown accustomed to feeling satisfied with raw athleticism, solid effort, and “competitive” games—rather than actual wins. And if those sad ambitions are still sufficient, 2012/13 won’t disappoint.

In Byron Scott, the Cavaliers at least have a field general that commands respect, and if Kyrie Irving can stay healthy, there will always be hope in crunch time. No one will miss Antawn Jamison, in theory, but there is the issue of replacing his 17 points a game. Will Waiters be up to the task? Does a healthy Varejao, combined with Tristan Thompson and Tyler Zeller, give Cleveland a halfway decent rotation of wingspans? Does Omri Casspi decide to abandon his 2011/12 approach of closing his eyes before every jump shot? Who knows? In the NBA, health is always paramount. And if Kyrie and Varejao play 70+ a piece, Cleveland has an outside chance of winning 40. They won’t, though, so I give ‘em 33.

Cavs Projected Record & Playoff Potential: 33-49 (no playoffs, and another one of those middle-of-the-road lottery picks that narrowly prevents us from adding some new, hotshot Kentucky guy you really want).

Can Anyone Usurp LeBron as NBA MVP?

I’m gonna go out on a limb here and say that Omri Casspi, with his aforementioned new strategy of looking at the basket during his shot attempts, might just knock my fellow Akron native off the pedestal. Otherwise, it’s hard to see it happening, since virtually every other superstar in the NBA is now part of a hive of other superstars, making his individual exploits less remarkable. The obvious exception would be Kevin Durant, who just lost a key member of his posse in James Harden, and thus might get additional credit for leading OKC back to the Finals with a new, makeshift lineup around him.

NBA Finals Matchup: Is Miami a Given?

When will it happen? When will LeBron—the boy who perpetually cries wolf—finally collapse into one of his famous post-collision fetal positions without actually hopping to his feet a minute later? Since it hasn’t happened in his first nine seasons, I say he is due. No Jesus Shuttlesworth addition will make up for LBJ sitting out 40 games with an ACL, so I say, forget Miami. Forget Boston, too—bunch of old geezers. Instead, I envision a violently depressed ESPN crew forced to promote a Pacers vs. 76ers showdown, with a victorious Indiana squad eventually taking on and losing to the equally unsexy Denver Nuggets in the NBA Finals. You can put that it writing! But use pencil, cuz it’s going to be Miami vs. OKC again. 

Cavs Record and Playoff Potential: 28-54. Do I trust the Eastern Conference to keep a sub-30 win team out of the postseason?  I probably do, but not by much.

Overview and Keys to Cavs Season:

I have no desire to see the Cavs struggle with a legitimate contender for one short-lived playoff series, but I am strongly against tanking.  Based on my prediction for what a naturally played 2012-2013 season is going to look like, I see the Cavs in the lottery for the third straight year, but the season shouldn’t be approached that way.  Win as many games as possible, but do it with pieces that will matter when the team is relevant.  This should be easier with the addition by subtraction equation having been executed; good riddance to the players named Parker and Jamison.

Is should surprise no one that this team’s success starts and ends with the play, and health of one Kyrie Andrew Irving.  Part of the math that I used to get the team to 28 wins was the estimate of 15 games that the Cavs will play without Irving’s services; they might win two of those with Jeremy Pargo and a D-League grab bag spelling the depth at the point guard position.  They remain “serviceable” at the 3, adding CJ Miles to eat up minutes behind Alonzo Gee, who most teams would love to have coming off the bench, but bench players are starters for a team 15 months removed from rock bottom status.  Dion Waiters is a giant question mark, and has to come with low expectations, even as the fourth overall pick in the draft.  If he lives up to his draft position, and compliments Kyrie well, the Wine and Gold might just catch a whiff of .500 basketball, but that isn’t the expectation.

Who knows what to expect of the front court, other than to appreciate that Antawn Jamsion isn’t there to kill possessions or be a larger liability on the defensive end.  The window might be closing on Anderson Varejao as a player, and I fear his status as a trade chip may have declined so much that I’ve dismissed the notion.  Tyler Zeller sounds like a nice surprise as a late first-rounder, and Tristan Thompson would surprise us all in a pleasant way if he could translate his athleticism into consistent and efficient minutes.

This is the year that we can start to evaluate the front office and coaching staff by more than just what the eyeball test would suggest, but by wins and losses.  Margin of defeat is going to matter.  Closing out games is going to matter.  Getting better in the win column as the season goes on, not moral victories, is going to matter.  Dan Gilbert isn’t going to “cut the check” for simply riding out the process for much longer.

Can Anyone Usurp LeBron as NBA MVP? 

I don’t feel that you can look at the Eastern Conference, and realistically believe that removing any one player from the roster in Miami make one bit of a difference, speaking in the context of the regular season.  There’s no doubt who the best player in the league is, but “Most Valuable”?  You have to go west to find that guy.  It might be Dirk or Durant, or it might be a big man in Southern California; I’m going to go with the latter.  You have a guy that so desperately wants to be liked with undeniable skills and a lot to prove, but he isn’t even going to be the alpha-dog on his own team this season.  I’m thinking of that other L.A. team, and the finisher on the lob, a player that Lob City cannot exist without.

It’s true, Chris Paul might be the quarterback, and a fine one at that, but we’ve seen how he functions on an island, as he did down in the delta, or even at Wake Forest.   He does have other options, but we don’t honestly see the Clips as anything legitimate without Blake Griffin.  If the Clippers are in the discussion, it’s because Griffin gives an MVP effort of both ends of the floor. 

NBA Finals Matchup: Is Miami a Given?

There’s no way to answer this question any other way.  If I’m trying to create a dialogue, I am presenting scenarios where Chicago has a full arsenal, and the genius of Tom Thibodeau, accompanied by the requisite amount of luck to stop Superteam Southeast.  However, if I have a gun to my head, I stay with the status quo here.  On the other side of the floor, I don’t want to be that part of the status quo.  So, with apologies to Lakers fans and those in love with the Oklahoma City model, one that finds itself without it’s Ginobili-like figure in James Harden, I am going with Ginobili, Pop, Frenchie, and Timmy having one last hurrah next June.  Everything just seems to work there, and this year should be no exception, with Kawhi Leonard transitioning into a bona fide type, it’s time for the Spurs to bring just one more home.

Tom Moore

Cavs Record and Playoff Potential: 26-56 and, dear God, no playoffs

Overview and Keys to Cavs Season:

It’s quite amazing, really, that Anderson Varejao and Boobie Gibson are the only players left on the roster from the 2009-10 season. That is a lot of turnover in a short amount of time.

It’s pretty much a given that how Kyrie Irving goes the Cavs go, and if we can figure that out so can opposing defenses. Last season’s Rookie of the Year will get his points, but can he make it through an entire 82-game season in one piece? And who is going to help him score?

Ideally, that someone (or someones) will be Dion Waiters and Tyler Zeller. But putting that much pressure may be too much to ask, even for the Big East Sixth Man of the Year (Waiters) and the ACC Player of the Year (Zeller). And, no, Cavs general manager Chris Grant most certainly did not approve the last part of this message. There could be a lot of nights, especially on the road, where things could be very ugly.

We’re not as sold as some on coach Byron Scott for some reason. Scott wants the team to play defense, which is nice (although Mike was criticized for wanting the same thing when he was Cavs coach, oddly enough), but we have to wonder if Scott has the “it” (whatever it is) to take the Cavs to a championship level, rather than just to a competitive one.

The one thing we always remember about when Lenny Wilkens took over as Cavs coach in the 1980s was his emphasis on winning at home. He built the Cavs into a powerhouse team at the old Coliseum and a decent enough team on the road to be a serious playoff contender.

That’s what we’d like to see Scott do with the Cavs this year. The first step for the Cavs to return to a contending team will be to make the Q a tough place to play again.

Can Anyone Usurp LeBron as NBA MVP?

James has won the MVP award three of the last four years, something not seen in the NBA since Larry Bird pulled off three in a row in the mid-1980s. So we could see voter fatigue set in no matter what LeBron does this year.

We’ll hitch our wagon to Kevin Durant. Now that the Thunder have traded away James Harden, things will be a little tougher for Durant, but he will still put up his usual numbers and the MVP voters will feel like they need to reward Durant for overcoming those “obstacles.”

Don’t count out Dwight Howard either, who could put up some big numbers with Steve Nash running the offense (if Kobe Bryant lets him, of course). Voters are going to love that he is with the Lakers now and will ignore that he stuck it to Orlando almost as bad as LeBron did to Cleveland.

NBA Finals Matchup: Is Miami a Given?

Barring a season-ending injury to James, the Heat is probably as close to a sure thing in the East as you can get. Who’s going to beat them?

Boston is another year older and will hit the playoffs after an 82-game season, rather than last year’s strike-shortened one; the Knicks are only good in a universe where people automatically think New York teams are good; Brooklyn are still the Nets, just in different uniforms; stop Derrick Rose and you stop the Bulls; and that’s pretty much it.

In the West, it will come down to Oklahoma City and the Lakers. And it will be very ... difficult ... for the NBA and ABC to not have a Lakers-Heat finals.

Jesse Lamovsky

Cavs Record and Playoff Potential: 25-57/Nil. I think there’s a pretty good chance the Cavaliers will fall off from their .318 winning percentage of a year ago. Obviously Antawn Jamison isn’t a great player but he can score, and his defection leaves Kyrie Irving as the one man on this team with the proven ability to put the ball in the basket on a somewhat regular basis. Even with the exception of last year’s Thunder, young teams don’t win in the NBA- particularly young teams with one good player. Actually, I don’t want the Cavaliers to make the playoffs. They need to get back in the Lottery at least once more.   

Overview and Keys to Cavs Season: The keys to this season- the keys to the future of this organization, indeed- are the progress of Tristan Thompson and Dion Waiters. We know Kyrie Irving is going to be a great player, that’s a given. But Thompson and Waiters must show themselves worthy of their lofty draft statuses, or this club is going to be in serious trouble. I can’t say I’m optimistic- Thompson showed very little discernible basketball skill as a rookie, and the early returns on Waiters aren’t good.    

Can Anyone Usurp LeBron as NBA MVP? I think Kevin Durant will have every opportunity to overtake LeBron as the league’s Most Valuable Player- if nothing else. If Oklahoma City wins 60-plus games and Durant plays up to his usual form I think there’s a better than 50/50 chance he does win it. We know he’ll win an MVP at some point; it could very well be this year. Of course LeBron James will still be the best player in the NBA, but “best player” and “Most Valuable Player” isn’t always the same thing. 

NBA Finals Matchup- Is Miami a Given? Yes, or as close to being a given as one can get. It’s a combination of a.) lack of competition in the East and b.) LeBron finally understanding what it takes to get it done in the big games. Once a player of that caliber learns how to win, you can forget it. And who else is in the East is up to the challenge of taking down the Heat? Chicago still has too much Derrick Rose and not enough of everything else, and Rose is coming off a severe injury. Indiana is good but not great. New York is, well, New York. Boston no longer has Ray Allen (who is in Miami) and doesn’t have the young legs to stand up to the Heat in a best-of-seven. And I don’t think anyone in the West, including the Thunder and the Lakers, can beat Miami, either.