Written by Jesse Lamovsky

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If you sense a familiar feel to the NBA’s conference semifinal roster, you’ve got reason to. All five Finals contestants since 2007- San Antonio, Cleveland, Boston, Los Angeles and Orlando- are still in the field. Three of the four conference semifinals are re-matches once, twice or three times-over of postseason series since ’07. Spurs-Suns, Lakers-Jazz, Cavaliers-Celtics: we’ve been here before.  

On to the preview:

Eastern Conference

Like WUAB Channel 43, the East played favorites in the first round. Kingpins Cleveland and Orlando won in authoritative fashion, as did fourth-seeded Boston. Third-seeded Atlanta had to fight from behind but the Hawks eventually subdued Milwaukee  as the top four in the conference all survived and advanced. The East was more predictable than the West outside of Los Angeles during the regular season and that pattern held as the postseason opened.

#2 Orlando Magic (59-23)

#3 Atlanta Hawks (53-29)

Season Series: Orlando leads, 3-1

Memorable Past Series: First meeting in the Playoffs

Capsule: Dewey Howard struggled with fines and fouls but his teammates- notably Jameer Nelson- more than picked up the slack as the Magicians swept away Charlotte in round one. Orlando is now 37-8 in its last 45 games and has to be considered the best team in the league at the moment- a meaningless distinction, to be sure.

What isn’t so meaningless is Orlando’s domination of the Hawks during the regular season. The Magic won the first three meetings by 17, 32 and 18 points and although Atlanta took the finale on a last-second put-back dunk by Josh Smith, the squeaker scarcely balanced the scales between the Southeast Division rivals. The undersized Hawks have no answer for Dewey Howard, who averaged 21.0 points and 16.8 rebounds on 61.2 percent shooting against them during the regular season. Atlanta’s seven-game struggle against undermanned Milwaukee in the first round doesn’t inspire confidence in their chances either.  

About the only thing that might hinder Orlando early in this series is ennui. The Magicians had a full week of R&R after finishing off the Bobcats. Actually, Orlando’s postseason thus far strongly resembles Cleveland’s from last year. Like the 2009 Cavaliers the Magicians swept their first-round opponent and then waited as the Hawks battled through a full seven-game series. The rest didn’t hinder Cleveland, which wiped out Atlanta in four; it probably won’t hinder Orlando here.

Prediction: Orlando in five.

Western Conference

Not too long ago the Dallas Mavericks and Denver Nuggets were considered the teams most capable of challenging the Lakers, with San Antonio an aging afterthought. Now Dallas and Denver are out of the running following first-round flops- and the Spurs, even with their modest seventh seed, are now the team of choice to legitimately challenge L.A.’s run to a third consecutive Finals appearance. Such is the West, where the first round was just as wild and unpredictable as anticipated. Two of the top four seeds are gone, eighth-seeded Oklahoma City took the Lakers to within one last-second shot of a seventh game and even the crippled Blazers stole Game One in Phoenix before succumbing in six.

#1 Los Angeles Lakers (57-25)

#5 Utah Jazz (53-29)

Season Series: Los Angeles leads, 3-1.

Memorable Past Series- 1998 Western Conference Finals: The young Lakers had lost to Utah in five games in the 1997 West Semifinals, but they were thought to be more composed and more capable of competing with the veteran Jazz in the conference-finals rematch. They were not. Utah blew out Los Angeles by 35 points in Game One and the stunned Lakers never recovered. After routing the Lakers in five in ’97, the Jazz did it one better and got the sweep in ’98.  

Capsule: Utah wasn’t good enough to beat L.A. in the 2008 Playoffs, wasn’t good enough to beat them in the ’09 Playoffs- and there’s no reason to believe they’re good enough to beat them in the ’10 Playoffs (especially since they’re already down 1-0). As in the previous two meetings, the issue for the Jazz is size: their undersized frontcourt of Carlos Boozer and Paul Milsap struggles to match up against the tall, talented Lakers big men. Andrew Bynum’s injury woes won’t cost L.A. here- Odom and Gasol are more than capable of getting the job done against the smaller Jazz.

Actually, L.A. could not have hoped for a more ideal second-round opponent than Utah. Certainly the Lakers didn’t want to play Denver, which dominated them during the regular season and even in their present sad state posed some match-up problems for the defending champions. The Jazz never make it easy- they’re too physical, Deron Williams is too good, and the Building Formerly Known as the Delta Center is too rough of a road venue for Utah to go too quietly into that good night. But Stockton and Malone aren’t walking through that door. L.A. has this team’s number.

Prediction: Lakers in five.   

#3 Phoenix Suns (54-28)

#7 San Antonio Spurs (50-32)

Season Series: Phoenix leads, 2-1.

Memorable Past Series- 2007 Western Conference Semifinals: With top-seeded Dallas out of the fray early thanks to the Golden State upset the Suns, at 61-21, had home-court for the rest of the postseason- including the Finals. But with the title theirs to lose, Phoenix was felled in snake-bit fashion by San Antonio. A cut on Steve Nash’s forehead that wouldn’t stop bleeding doomed the Suns in Game One and the suspensions of Amare Stoudamire and Boris Diaw helped cost them the pivotal Game Five, which the Spurs won to take a 3-2 series lead. San Antonio closed out the Suns in Game Six behind 87 points from Duncan, Parker and Ginobili and went on to win the title.  

Capsule: The joy in the Valley of the Sun after Phoenix’s first series victory since 2007 must be tempered by the reality of the next opponent. San Antonio has been the bugaboo of the Suns, knocking them out of the Playoffs three times in the last five years- twice when Phoenix had home-court advantage in the series. They have it again this time around but they’ll be dealing with a Spurs team that looks as good as at any time since the title run of ’07. San Antonio got contributions from all quarters in its opening-round conquest of Dallas- even Richard Jefferson deigned to show up.

Like the Spurs, Phoenix played outstanding basketball down the stretch and looked formidable in its first-round series. But like Utah with Los Angeles, the Suns still have the same old problems- in this case, shaky defense and small big men against the methodical, defense-oriented Spurs. Phoenix’s best hope is an NHL-style re-seeding of the bracket, which would pit them against Utah in the second round. But they’re not going to get it. The Suns won’t be able to prevent a seemingly predestined Western Conference Finals meeting between Los Angeles and San Antonio.

Prediction: Spurs in six.