Written by Richard Hanes

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The other day on twitter someone asked if the Cavs were going to be too mediocre for their own good.  You know, win too many games this season.  So instead of responding in 140 characters on Twitter here are 1822 words and 9,768 characters (70 consecutive tweets) on the topic.  Enjoy the ride down the rabbit hole that is my mind on sports.

All of us want the Cavs to be successful and return to the playoffs, however doing so this season can really crush chances for long-term success.  The reality is that we live in a day and age where attracting top free agent talent to Cleveland is a difficult task to put it lightly.  Owner, Dan Gilbert is willing to spend the money, but we are not a sexy market.  In order for the Cavaliers to build a long-term championship organization they must acquire young intriguing talent through the NBA Draft.  The best way to do this is to have consecutive seasons of high lottery draft choices.  Many call this the Oklahoma City plan or the Seattle Supersonics plan for you old schoolers.  Let’s take a look at what this has done for the Thunder.

The OKC Thunder (Sonics) selected Kevin Durant out of Texas with the #2 choice in 2007.  They got lucky in 2007 on a two fronts.  The first is that they were only the 5^th worst team in the NBA in 07, which meant they only had a 9.7% chance to have the #2 pick.  The second front was that the Portland Trailblazers decided to draft Greg Oden #1 overall thus allowing OKC (Seattle) to select Kevin Durant #2.  In 2008 the Thunder (Sonics) selected Russell Westbrook out of UCLA 4^th overall.  The Thunder (Sonics) were actually the 2^nd worst team in 2008, but ended up with the 4^th selection.  I would argue this did not hurt them as Westbrook is a great fit with Durant.  OKC (Seattle) may have chosen Westbrook over Beasley (2^nd in 08) and O.J. Mayo (3^rd in 08) anyway at #2.  The Thunder (Sonics) were also able to add Serge Ibaka with the 24^th overall pick in 2008 and he is currently starting at PF.  In 2009 they continued on the Lottery plan and took James Harden #3 overall out of Arizona State.  OKC was the 4^th worst team in 2009, but again got a little lucky and was able to select 3^rd.  Some could argue they may have actually picked the wrong SG as they had a shot at Tyreke Evans out of Memphis, but went with Harden.  While Harden isn’t currently a starter for OKC he provides a very nice offensive punch off the bench as he is currently averaging 16.5 ppg in 2011-12.  OKC is a legit championship contender right now because they were able to put together a core of young players in Durant, Westbrook, and Harden via the NBA Draft lottery.  When an NBA team to compiles that type of talent in three consecutive years it is much easier to add complimentary players via free agency or trade (Kendrick Perkins and Thabo Sefolosha).  While the Thunder definitely got lucky in 2007 when they landed Durant they put themselves in the right position to build a championship contender in a mid market by playing the draft lottery in consecutive seasons.

Let’s switch our focus back to the Cavs.  We are in a very similar position to OKC.  We are mid-market town that doesn’t have consistently warm temperatures, beaches, multiple skyscrapers, Hollywood, etc.  While Cleveland can be a great TV market for sports when our teams are good because of our rabid fan base, that alone won’t entice Dwight Howard to add us to his list of teams he is willing to be dealt to.  We MUST follow the OKC plan and land a core of young players through the NBA Draft Lottery. 

The good news is that it appears that we are on our way.  Kyrie Irving looks like the real deal.  He has already surpassed my early scoring expectations.  I really didn’t think he could finish at the rim nearly as well as he is showing so far in the NBA, and that is a welcome surprise for me.  As he further develops his assist numbers should increase, as well as his ability to generate steals as he learns how to play better defense.  If we compare Kyrie to the OKC plan I think in the long run he will be better than Russell Westbrook.  We also had the luxury of having a bonus lottery pick in the 2011 NBA Draft.  While many said this draft was void of talent, Tristan Thompson has looked like a very solid choice at #4 overall.  TT has flashed a fantastic motor, awesome wingspan, good leaping ability, and most importantly the desire to finish strong at the rim.  I don’t expect TT to ever blossom into an all-star, but I certainly think he has the potential to be a starting PF or C in the NBA.  I don’t think he will ever be the #1 or #2 scoring option on a contending team, but again I think he has shown the promise of just enough offensive game to be a solid contributor once the minutes come.  I would take his potential right now over Serge Ibaka when again comparing to OKC, but probably behind Harden from an overall impact perspective.  TT may even eventually surpass Harden because of his impact on the defensive end of the floor, but I am not quite ready to say that.  Tallying up the scorecard I think we have found our Westbrook in Irving and another solid player in TT that is probably just shy of the impact of Harden.  So that leaves us with finding our Kevin Durant which won’t be easy, but could be possible with the potential depth of this upcoming NBA Draft.  This my friends is why it is so important that the Cavs lose just enough games to grab a high lottery pick in the 2012 NBA Draft. 

That gets us back to the original question that started all of this.  Will the Cavs be too mediocre this season slip into the playoffs (gasp!) or finish just on the fringe, thus eliminating much hope for a top 8-10 pick?  Well let’s take a look.  As of January 18^th, we are 6-7 even after playing nine of our first thirteen contests away from the Q.  Yep we are actually a pretty respectable 4-5 on the road so far.  The good news is that our opponent’s combined winning percentage has not been stellar so the 6-7 start still could be a mirage.  Outside of the Pacers, Blazers, Jazz, and Lakers the rest have been “cupcakes.”  The problem is we are actually 6-3 against those said cupcakes, which doesn’t bode particularly well if your hoping for a top 5 pick.  We have 53 games to go including a massive NINE game home stand in February.  I estimate that you don’t want to be too far north of 20 wins this year to have a real shot a top 5 pick.  With that being said that means the Cavs would have to go 14-39 the rest of the way to finish at 20-46.  If you take a look at their schedule I count 18 more “cupcake” games.  (NJ, Mil, Sac, Det, NO, Wash, Tor, Mil, Phx, Det, Mil, Mil, Tor, NJ, Char, Was, Det, Was).  We are currently winning 66% of these.  If that continues you are looking at 12 more wins against these other lottery teams.  So we are good right?!  18-48 here we come!  Top 5 pick here we come!  Probably not.  We aren’t going to go 0-35 against the playoff caliber teams in the NBA.  We will grab at least a handful of those games.  Say maybe 5-7.  That means we could finish at 25-41.  Do you see Milwaukee, Toronto, Detroit, New Jersey, Charlotte, Washington, Minnesota, Phoenix, Golden State, Sacramento, and New Orleans winning more than 25 games?  Maybe a couple of those teams will, but not many.  Oh-oh. 

So we are doomed!  12^th pick in the 2012 NBA Draft here we come!  We were too mediocre for our own good!  Not so fast.  Kyrie Irving and Tristan Thompson have never played a 66 game schedule.  Hell Kyrie hasn’t played a 20 games schedule (burn).  At some point I see these two young kids fading a bit under the stress of their first NBA season.  Maybe it is a small injury that derails them for a few games.  Maybe it’s just being worn down that leads to a rough last month of play.  I’m not exactly sure what it will be, but I think that will happen at some point.  Also there is a chance that the Cavaliers front office finds a dance partner and trades Anderson Varejao, Ramon Sessions, or Antawn Jamison (wishful thinking, I know) for future draft choices.  A trade of this nature would also most likely have a negative impact on wins during the second half of this season.

So what is the conclusion here?  There isn’t one quite yet, but we are getting dangerously close to being too mediocre.  These next eleven games are going go a long way towards making the answer more clear.  The Cavs only have one “cupcake” over the next twelve games.  They should rightly go 1-10 and be 7-17 come mid-February.  Maybe 9-15 at best if they steal a few they shouldn’t win.  If that is the case then I think we can breathe a little easier in the quest to remain on the OKC plan.  If the Cavs somehow go 5-6 though and are 11-13 in mid February then your answer could easily be we are too mediocre for our own good.

Bonus Blog:  Draft Watch – College Kids that could help the Cavs in the 2012 Draft

Note:  This assumes any underclassmen on this list declare for the draft.

1)      Anthony Davis PF Kentucky

2)      Perry Jones III PF Baylor

3)      Harrison Barnes SF UNC

4)      Thomas Robinson PF Kansas

5)      Michael Kidd-Gilchrist SF Kentucky

6)      Jeremy Lamb SG UConn

7)      Bradley Beal SG Florida

8)      Jared Sullinger PF Ohio State

9)      Andre Drummond C UConn

10)   Austin Rivers SG Duke

The above list is no particular order.  I feel that any of these kids could come in and fill a need on the Cavs next season.  I personally would prefer a wing player at either SG or SF, but adding a dynamic PF wouldn’t hurt either.  I also feel that to really improve the Cavs must get a Top 8 pick or better in the 2012 NBA Draft when taking a look at this list.  Check back in the coming weeks as I break this list down further and continue to give updates on how the Cavs are progressing on my quest for them to follow the OKC plan.