Written by Richard Hanes

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About three weeks ago I wrote a piece titled "Sink Below Medicore - This Year."  For many of the more casual Cavs fans out there it might not be a popular piece.  It basically says that we need to lose games in 2012 and for those that cannot see the big picture it can be a tough pill to swallow.  Hopefully those losses are competitive, we see growth out of our young core, but in the end lose games.  In that article the Cavs were about to embark on a pretty tough stretch of scheduling.  I had stated that they rightfully should have went 1-10 over an eleven game span from Jan 20th to Feb 8th.  I had hoped they would have been 7-17 and in the hunt for a top 5 lottery pick.  Well where are they now?  Can they still get a lottery pick of value?  Lets take a look at my first Cavs OKC Plan Progress Report.

For those of you on board with the OKC plan I have some good news and some bad news.  The good news first you say?  Well the Cavs just lost Anderson Varejao for an "indefinite" period of time with a broken wrist.  As we found out last season losing Andy is bad bad news for the Cavs.  The win column did not see much love after Varejao went down in the 2011 - 12 campaign.  This injury could have just saved the OKC plan for Cleveland.  Before Varejao went down this Cavs team was fighting hard every night.  They were 10-14 and squarely in the thick of the playoff race in the East for the 8th seed.  The Knicks were a mess (pre-Linsanity), the Bucks weren't scary, and the Celtics even playing well still looked old.  The Cavs were that scrappy team on your schedule that most teams really didn't want to see.  But then down went Andy and so did the Cavs to the Bucks and then 76ers on back to back nights.  The Cavs now sit at 10-16, have lost probably their most valuable player right now for a significant amount of time, and have to figure out a big man rotation that is suddenly extremely thin.  The 8th seed seems very unobtainable now which is exactly what needs to happen.

The bad news?  Losing Andy potentially takes a very valuable trade chip away from Chris Grant.  I know the reports lately have said Andy was basically untouchable, but I think a contending team or two would have made a significant offer for Varejao at the deadline.  This is also going to be somewhat unpopular, but I really do not think Andy's value will ever be higher than it was last week.  Moving Andy for a young "core" player and a #1 pick this year could have been extremely helpful.  Varejao will be 30 years old later this year.  He thrives off of energy and hustle.  That energy is going to start to decline sooner rather than later.  I am a big Varejao supporter, but if the deal was right I would have moved him this season.  Unless the wrist injury ends up only being a 4-6 week type thing I'm not sure if we will be able to move him before this season's trade deadline.

So are the Cavs on schedule in my quest for them to obtain another valuable lottery pick?  After the Varejao injury I think they are back in track.  The Cavs currently sit at 10th in the East and only two games out of the 8th seed, but that is good enough for 8th worst in the NBA.  If the lottery goes as planned we would receive the 8th overall pick, which I think is key.  In my previous post I was hoping for a Top 5 pick and that too may now be still possible.  The Cavs are only three and half games better than the Detroit Pistons and New Jersey Nets who are currently sitting as the 5th and 4th worst teams in the NBA respectively.  The other teams that are currently standing between the Cavs and a Top 5 pick are Golden State, Toronto, Sacramento, and Detroit.  If the Cavs are without Varejao for 8 or more weeks its at least possible that the Cavs creep back into the Top 5 discussion.  A few short days ago, after the Cavs upset the Clippers, it looked like the 8th seed was a much greater possibility than a Top 5 pick.

Why is a Top 8 or even better a Top 5 pick so important?  The answer is simple.  I think if the Cavs can add one more dynamic player to their current core they could be serious playoff threats going into the 2013-2014 NBA season.  Lets look at the "core."  These are players that I think might still be in wine and gold for that 2013-2014 campaign.  Kyrie Irving, Tristan Thompson, Alonso Gee, Christian Eyenga, Boobie Gibson, and now possibly Anderson Varejao.  I think the Cavs make a strong effort to resign Gee after this season and Boobie after next season (if not sooner).  Assuming Varejao sticks around now the Cavs post positions are in good shape defensively.  The Cavs also have some very athletic, defensive minded wing players that can round out their bench in Gee, Eyenga, and Boobie.  Gee and Boobie also bring nice offensive skill sets to the table and Eyenga could develop.  We are also completely fine at PG with Kyrie looking like a for sure future all-star already in his rookie season.  If those players are in fact our current core what are the Cavs greatest needs?  I would argue that they are as follows.

1)  Wing Scorer.  Either SG or SF.

2)  Another post player that has an offensive skill set.

3)  Veteran back-up PG.

Ultimately I would love to find our impact wing scorer in this summer's NBA draft with our 1st round pick.  Then I would love to trade Razor Ramon Sessions for a low 1st round pick that we can use on another post player (I think this is a possibility at the deadline).  Then look to add a 2nd tier Free Agent at whatever positions we do not target in the draft.  If we simply concentrate on this summer's NBA Draft in this post (We will focus on FA in another) what would a Top 5-8 pick bring the Cavs?

The question is really pretty intriguing.  Any of the following players could potentially be available.  Perry Jones III PF Baylor, Thomas Robinson PF Kansas, Jared Sullinger PF Ohio State, Jeremy Lamb SG Uconn, Bradley Beal SG Florida, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist SF Kentucky.  There is even an outside possibility that Harrison Barnes SF UNC or Andre Drummond C Uconn is there around pick five.  Outside of the consensus number one pick, Anthony Davis PF/C Kentucky, much is yet to be decided as far mock drafts go.  As it stands now the following is my realistic best case scenario for our Cavaliers.

With their own first round pick they take either Jeremy Lamb SG Uconn, MKG SF Kentucky, or Perry Jones the III PF Baylor.  They then hopefully trade Ramon Sessions to the Lakers for the Dallas Mavericks 1st Round, Top 20 protected pick.  The Mavs make the playoffs, but get bounced in the 2nd round.  That leaves the Cavs with say the 22nd overall pick.  With this selection they add either Doron Lamb SG Kentucky or Austin Rivers SG Duke (if he comes out early) if we are able to get MKG or PJIII with our first pick.  If we select Jeremy Lamb then we go with the best big on the board.  If the Cavs could score a combo of this nature their rebuilding process would have an extremely attractive young core to potential free agents.

If the Cavs make the costly error of making it back to the playoffs too soon they miss out on the opportunity to add a key core player through the draft to team with Kyrie Irving.  Its not fun to hope for close losses, but its gives our franchise its best chance to be a legit contender and not stuck as a six-eight seed for the next four years.  Thanks to the Anderson Varejao injury I think we will stumble enough to keep us on track with the OKC plan.

Check back in the coming weeks for shorter progress reports and draft choice updates as the season rolls along.  As the picture starts to become more clear I will give my thoughts as to why I think a player like Jeremy Lamb or MKG would be the best fit for our Cavaliers.

Also check back for my next blog that answers the question, "Why do the Cavs have to follow the OKC Plan?"