Written by Noah Poinar

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After they unveil the 68 team bracket on Selection Sunday each year, people go on the internet and write “Tips to Winning your March Madness Pool.”  It’s filled with educational caveats like: Don’t pick 15 and 16 seeds; always pick a 13 and 12 seed to upset a 4 and 5 seed; avoid picking a team seeded lower than (blank) to make the Final Four, etc., etc.  They back all of their advice up with statistics compiled from previous years in a attempt to sound intelligent and credible, but at the end of the day they’re not doing anyone much of a service when it comes to helping them fill out their bracket.  I'm prepared to offer much of  the same eroneous advice for what should be March Madness' second cousin—NBA lottery night, or Lottery Lunacy as I've coined it. 

When it comes to the NBA's Lottery Lunacy, you don’t have to be a degenerate sports gambler to participate, nor do you need to know anything about basketball.  Basically, it's one in the same as March Madness.

 

You just need to be a logged in member of TheClevelandFan.com and give your projected 14-team lottery order, sit back, and hope you nail it.  (The person or persons to predict it correctly 1 through 14 will be recognized for it.)  You might need to know a thing or two regarding how the lottery process works, though. 

I’m officially trying to make this lottery thing “a thing.”   So as is the case for March Madness, I’m writing the very first “Tips to Winning your Lottery Lunacy Pool.”  Believe it or not, there is actual strategy involved.  In fact, there's about as much strategy as there is in filling out a tournament bracket.  

More or less though, this is just a dumbed down, in depth explanation of how this crazy lottery thing actually works, because the truth is that not a lot of people Really know.     

So how exactly does it work?  

A lot of us assume it’s just a free for all in which any team could get any pick.  It’s not.   

 

Only the first three selections are determined via a lottery.  After that, the remaining picks are determined by order of regular-season finish.

This is why the Cavs, at worst, are guaranteed of the sixth overall selection.  Three teams not named the Bobcats, Wizards, and Cavs (the teams with the highest overall odds) would have to land inside the top three for this to happen; the chances of that happening are not good, it's actually never happened before in this current format.  

Here’s what happens...

An auditor from Ernst and Young, that bald guy who announces the order on live TV, David Stern, and a couple other random people with lucrative paying jobs gather in a room to conduct the lottery ahead of time.  It’s rumored that they watch a machine spit out an array of sequenced ping pong balls, but they probably just look to an application on an Iphone to tell them the eventual order.  

The process theoretically works as follows.

It’s essentially a 7th grade math problem where they have a giant bag full of marbles.  8 marbles are red, 5 are blue, 3 are green, and 1 is yellow and each is assigned to a team.  Charlotte has the most marbles, Houston has the least.  Whichever marble is taken first is the team that gets the No. 1 pick, then they do this for the second and third pick as well.  After this, the lottery is over and the rest of the order is determined by the each teams regular season finish.  

These are the exact number of “marbles” each team has in the “bag.”

Charlotte: 250 

 

Washington: 199 

 

Cleveland: 138 

 

New Orleans: 137 

 

Sacramento: 76

 

Brooklyn: 75  

 

Golden State: 36 

 

Toronto: 35 

 

Detroit: 17 

 

New Orleans: 11

 

Portland: 8

 

Milwaukee: 7

 

Phoenix: 6

 

Houston: 5

 

A couple hours after determining the order, they go on national TV and announce the picks in reverse order to build suspense and TV ratings.  In doing so, they confuse a lot of fans and create a lot of misconceptions regarding the mathematics of it all.  But because they do it this way, I'll aproach the "tips" from that same angle to make it much easier to comprehend.  

Never pick the 16, 15, and 14 seeds 

When you sit down to pencil in your picks, treat the teams with really low odds (single digit ping pong balls) as if they were 14,  15 and 16 seeds in the NCAA tournament.  In other words, don’t get cute and have Houston landing the number one pick because it’s never happened before.   

Last year, picks 9-14 went just as planned.  Meaning, the team with the 9th best odds got the 9th pick, and so on all the way down to pick number 14, where the team with the worst odds got the 14th pick.  The year before, picks 7-14 went as planned.  The year before that, picks 7-14 again.  In 2007, it was picks 8-14.  In 2006, picks 6-14.  In 2005, picks 7-14.   2008 was the biggest shakeup we’ve had since the lottery went to this existing format, where only picks 10-14 went accordingly.

The lesson: Stick with the history, pencil the teams in at 10-14 exactly as the odds suggest.

So your projected lottery should look like this so far.

14th-Houston

13th-Phoenix

12th-Milwaukee

11th-Portland

10th-New Orleans (via Minnesota). 

 

Picking the 13 and 12 seed to upset the 4 and 5 seeds.  

Here’s where it gets tricky, which is a nice way of saying, 'here's where you begin guessing.'  

At some point you’ll have to roll the dice and deviate from the actual order.  At the very least,  you’ll need to do this at either pick number 8, 7, 6  or 5.  (You can do it at 9 if you’re in the “screw it” stage of life.)  It’s called “The Skip,” literally a term I just made up, but something that’s in every lottery.  It usually happens at pick 6 or 7.  

“The Skip” is when the selection show is going according to plan when, suddenly, a team is bypassed.  When this happens, a ticker at the corner of your TV screen will say that this team is guaranteed a top 3 pick.   The Cavs were the "Skip Team" last season, as you might remember your heart skipping a beat when their name was not called in the No. 8 slot.    

Here’s a list of all the teams in the last 12 drafts that were the first to be skipped in their respective lottery when the order was announced.   

 

2011: The Cavs/skipped at No. 8/ended up with No. 1 pick.

 

2010: The Sixers/skipped at No. 6/ended up with No. 2 pick.

 

2009: The Grizzlies/skipped at No. 6/ended up with No. 2 pick.

 

2008: The Bulls/skipped at No. 9/ended up with No. 1 pick.

  

2007: The Blazers/skipped at No. 7/ended up with No. 1 pick.

 

2006: The Raptor/skipped at No. 5/ended up with No. 1 pick.

 

2005: The Bucks/skipped at No.6/ended up with No. 1 pick.

 

2004: No Skip.

 

2003: The Grizzlies/skipped at No. 6/ended up with No. 2 pick.

 

2002: The Rockets/Skipped at No. 5/ended up with No. 1 pick.

 

2001: The Clippers/skipped at No.8/ended up with No. 2 pick.

 

2000: The Nets/skipped at No. 7/ended up with No. 1 pick.

 

The Lesson: Whoever you choose as your “Skip Team,” put them down in the No. 1 or 2 spot.  If they’re skipped at the 7th spot or later, consider giving them the No. 1 pick.

The Takeaway: If you’re a Cavs fan watching from home, pray they don’t skip over a team in the 6-10 range because it will only hurt the Cavs chances.

 

Avoid picking all number one seeds to make Final Four

 

In 1993, the NBA began giving the worst team in the league the best odds.  Since then, only two times has the worst team secured the top pick.  That was in 2003 (Cleveland) and 2004 (Orlando), and both teams were tied for the leagues worst record.  So really, a team with the worst overall record has never won the lottery.  After all, the odds are actually against it happening.  

Picking Charlotte is okay to do.  I consider it a cop-out, but it’s still okay.  What isn’t okay is for your top three to go like this (in order): Charlotte, Washington, and Cleveland.  In the history of this current lottery format, we’ve never seen the top three pan out exactly as the odds say it should.  Not to mention, you don’t want to be that guy whose Final Four consists of all No. 1 seeds.  Speaking of the Final Four...    

 

In filling out my NCAA bracket, I’ve always used this personal formula when selecting my Final Four.  I pick...

 

• Two No. 1 seeds. 
• One 2 or 3 seed.
• And one 4-7 seed (for the sole purpose of receiving a distinct advantage over the rest of the field if I happen to hit on it.) 

 

I came to figure that this gives you the best mathematical ‘odds’ to win your respective pool.  Well, the same goes for Lottery Lunacy.  To give yourself the best shot at winning you should approach your top three in much of the same way.  By that I mean 

 

• Always pick a team outside of the top three to land the first or second selection.  It's happened every year.
• Pick two of the top three teams to get two of the top three spots, but in no specific order  It's happens in most years.  

 

Which two spots?  That’s all up to you. 

After that, there’s really no method for it, just throw something together that looks pretty.  Here’s a couple of storyline’s that look “pretty” as far as the top three is concerned.

 

New Jersey making Jersey Proud

 

If New Jersey’s pick—rather, Brooklyn’s pick—lands outside the top 3, the pick will automatically go to Portland.  Because the Nets are the dumbest run franchise in professional sports—just ahead of the Knicks and Raiders—I’d consider etching them outside the top three just so their pick will go to Portland. 

According to the Nets brain trust, it was better to acquire an aging Gerald Wallace than it would Thomas Robinson or Harrison Barnes.  There thinking was that they only really liked three guys in this draft.   However, because of that reasoning, you have to give consideration to the possibility of Brooklyn winning it.  Remember when the Clippers traded their unprotected pick to the Cavs last season because “That’s how much they hated that draft class?”  Yea.  Personally, I could see a scenario where the Nets get the No. 1 pick (Anthony Davis), and without even listening to any other trade offers they promptly trade those rights to Orlando for Dwight Howard.  

Sadly, I just found myself rooting for the Nets to land that top selection just so this catastrophic, and highly laughable, scenario unfolds. 

 

Golden State is in a similar situation.

If the Warriors’ pick ends up inside the top seven, that pick will go to Utah.  It would only make sense if that were to happen, too.  In Utah, you have a team that is as equally savvy as Portland.  In Golden State, you have a team that is as equally dumb as New Jersey.  

A lot of people fail to realize that the Warriors have been the poorest run franchise in NBA history.  Even worse than the Clippers, arguably.  There’s a reason they’re moving to San Francisco.  Once again though, for this reason I could see them getting the No. 1 pick because it’s expected that (between now and Wednesday night), Utah and GS work out a deal that ensures the Warriors of keeping their pick no matter what.  If this happens, I’m sure it’ll eventually find a way to backfire on the Warriors.  Things always do.

David Stern’s Burden

 

It’s been mandated that we walk away from every lottery with reason to question David Stern and the league.  By this I mean we are left accusing them of rigging the lottery.  New Orleans getting the top pick (even getting the second pick) is a sure fire way of that happening.  

Another option would be the Kings getting that top selection.  For the past three years now they’ve been on the verge of moving to Anaheim.  Getting Anthony Davis to pair with DeMarcus Cousins could help stop that. 

Another option is...well, any of the other 12 teams getting that top selection.  Really, it doesn’t matter who wins the No. 1 pick, people will find a way to say, “It’s rigged I tell you, it’s rigged!”  They always do.   

 

Detroit Basketball

 

At some point they have to get redemption from that 2003 draft when they took Darko Milicic, don’t they?  Aside from maybe Sacramento, Anthony Davis alongside Greg Monroe would be the most ideal fit for any team in this lottery.  Ultimately, that’s why I could see it happening; this stuff has a weird way of working itself out.  Also, as of late, things have been looking up for the city of Detroit.  The Tigers senile owner just overpaid for Prince Fielder so he could win a World Series before he dies, the auto industry is slowly recovering, the Lions made the playoffs for the first time in two decades, and the Pistons are a few years away from Charlie Villanueva and Ben Gordon (salary cap hoarders) coming off their books.

 

A Canadian Letdown

  

Can you imagine all of this Anthony Davis hype being washed away in the blink of an eye as Davis, along with his agent and all of his sponsors, begrudgingly pack their bags for a four year stay north of the boarder?  The comedy there is too great to ignore, which means you should definitely consider the very real possibility that Toronto ends up with top pick.

 

The Cavs

 

1997 was the last time a team (the Sixers) got the No. 1 overall pick in consecutive drafts.  If you’re a stern believer in the “David Stern is afraid of Gilbert unleashing the gory details of his tampering investigation” theory, then I suppose the Cavs have a good shot at doing the unthinkable.  

Unfortunately, the lottery isn’t rigged.

 

So with all of this said, here’s how I have the 2012 Lottery shaking out.    

 

14th-Houston

13th-Phoenix

12th-Milwaukee

11th-Portland

10th-New Orleans

9th-Detroit

8th-Toronto

7th-Golden State

6th-Sacramento

5th-Cleveland

4th-Washington

3rd-New Orleans

2nd-Charlotte

1st-New Jersey

Your guess is as good as mine.