Written by Noah Poinar

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10 months after the Cavs dealt Mo Williams to the Clippers in exchange for Baron Davis and their unprotected pick, it became the most lopsided trade in league history.  Because of the lockout—or rather, the mandated amnesty clause that ensued the lockout—the Cavs essentially traded Mo Williams for Kyrie Irving and $15 million worth of cap room.  It’s that $15 million in cap that differentiates it from the likes of all the other trade heists we’ve seen.  Ironically, this lopsided swap saved three separate and equally decrepit franchises from their own extinction.       

The Clippers, a franchise that could actually relate with the likes of the 1999-2011 Cleveland Browns, went out and acquired Chris Paul.  Five months later, he became the franchise savior as they finished the season with a 40-26 record—the franchises best single season ever (winning percentage-wise).  This would have never happened had David Stern not buckled to the pressure of the owners, vetoing the three-team trade that would have made Chris Paul a Laker.  And if that hadn’t of happened, the Cavs would have never traded Ramon Sessions to the Lakers for the 24th pick this year.  And throughout it all, New Orleans—the team that would have benefitted greatly from trading Paul to the Lakers—wouldn’t have been terrible enough to win the No. 1 overall pick in this year’s draft.

No one will ever blame the Hornets, Clips or Cavs of ruining the integrity of the game, that's for sure.

 

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A month ago, Cavs fans entered the lottery with high hopes— "TheBrow" was a realistic possibility at No. 1.  Then, something terrible happened.  The Cavs drew the 4th pick, we told ourselves that there were only three 'must have' player's in this draft, we weren't happy, eventually we moved on and now we're here, two days before the draft, essentially assured of getting Bradley Beal or Michael Kidd-Gilchrist.  Be thankful because, really, Anderson Varejao's wrist is the only reason the Cavs aren't selecting 9th or 10th this year. 

82games.com has a “Simple Rating” system which basically breaks down various statistical factors and ranks the best players on each team in a given year.  Of players who contributed to at least 10 percent of the teams minutes for the season, Anderson Varejao finished first on the team in 2011-2012 (ahead of Kyrie Irving); second in 2010-2011 (behind Baron Davis); and second in 2009-2010 (behind LeBron James).

We always assumed Varejao was a standard role player who came off the bench and did the dirty work.  Now, it might appear he was underemployed all those years he spent coming off the bench.  This year in the starting center role—a role that we all agreed he was out of position in—he proved to be an all star.  He was fourth in the league in total rebounding on a per game basis, ahead of him was Dwight Howard, Kevin Love, and Andrew Bynum.  He led the league in offensive rebounds per game with 4.4; coming in at second was DeMarcus Cousins and Kevin Love with 4.1.  

This is the guy the Cavs didn’t have for the final 42 games of the season.  With him, they were 10-14 with him—and in the thick of playoff contention—without him, they were 11-31.  

Did You Know: Anderson Varejao had a 20 point 20 rebound game this season. 

All of our attention is geared around the Cavs upcoming No. 4 selection, however, lets take a second to reflect on last year’s No. 4 pick, Tristan Thompson.

There’s a good chance that Tristan Thompson makes a huuuge leap from his rookie to sophomore season.  He recorded 9 double-doubles last season, which was more than both Zach Randolph and DeJuan Blair and just behind Serge Ibaka (12), Chris Bosh (11) and Elton Brand (11).  Those 9 double-doubles also put him third amongst all rookies behind Ricky Rubio and Kenneth Farried.  Furthermore, Thompson’s 1.03 blocks per game were 11th best among all power forwards.  When the season kicks off next year, we'll be focused on the Cavs top pick this year, but we might be in for a Thompson surprise.

Together, in the front court, they're a pretty big offensive liability to have.  Literally, neither one can score unless it's (1) off a perfect feed as they're cutting to the hoop or (2) an offensive put back.  However, the two become quite interesting when you have a three guys around them who can score with both an elite inside-outside game.

That's what this draft has come down to for Cavs fans.  Do they take Gilchrist , a small forward who excels in the open court, plays lock perimeter D, and can get to the hole and finish with relative ease?  Or do they take Barnes, who lacks those aspects more or less but had one of the best mid range games in the college game—a trait that can have real value at the next level?  Or is it Beal, the guy who has maddd shooting range and looks like Derrick Rose only a Derrick Rose that can shoot really well but can't ball handle or get to the hoop? 

I’d rather the Cavs not take Brad Beal.  This has nothing to do with how subjectively good or bad I think he will be (I actually like the guy a lot), it has to do with the crop of shooting guards available in free agency; specifically the player he compares most to, Eric Gordon.  It also has to do with the fact that the Cavs are in a very fortuitous position this summer.  If they take either of the two small forwards, Barnes of Gilchrist, they’d be able to get a shooting guard in free agency (Nick Young, O.J. Mayo, or Eric Gordon) and use their 24th pick on a big man, (the most ideal situation)—dare I say they take Jared Sullinger, who legitimately looks like he might fall to #24?  Who knows.  My guess is that whoever the Cavs take at #24 it's someone who hasn't been mocked to the Cavs all year, I feel like that's how this stuff usually works.  Regardless, The Cavs should do everything in their power to land Eric Gordon this summer.  What will “everything in their power” require to pry Gordon away from New Orleans?  It will take something close to a max deal.   Is he worth that kind of money?  Honestly, no... not at all.  But the Cavs are in a very unique position.  It turns out there are some slight advantages to having 6 first round picks in a span of three years.

Right now, the Cavs are approximately $19 million below the cap.  Here are the player’s the Cavs have under contract for the following seasons.

2013-2014: Anderson Varejao, Omri Caspi, Kyrie Irving, and Tristan Thompson.

 

2014-2015: Anderson Varejao, Kyrie Irving, and Tristan Thompson

 

2015-2016: Kyrie Irving and Tristan Thompson

 

Obviously this will change on Thursday, when the Cavs add at least two more players to their roster; nevertheless, this season is a great time for the Cavs to spend.  Wait, no, it is the perfect time for them to spend.   Varejao is making chump change—it’s why he’s such a valuable trade commodity—Kyrie Irving and Tristan Thompson are in the midst of their rookie contracts, and whoever the Cavs take at No. 4 and 24 will be under rookie contract for the next three years too.  More importantly than all of that, each and every one of these players, aside from Varejao, will continue to drastically improve over the next three years because, well...that’s what 19 and 20 year olds do.

It seems wrong on every level to go after a player like E. Gordon or even Roy Hibbert.  Our natural inclination is to say, Wait things out.  See what you have next year, then make a move.  This team is already young and inexperienced enough.  They are so far from contention.  What would they be waiting for?  For next year's stellar free agent class (there's James Harden and Dwight Howard, then a huge dropoff, and then Luke Walton).  For next years awesome draft class? (Secret: it might be worse than last year's.)  For the Lakers and Knicks to clear cap space and become active participants in the market again after they dump Gasol and Stoudemire?

Just know this: The Cavs are the only team in the league that could swing a deal for Atlanta SG, Joe Johnson—who's imfamous for owning the league's most cap-crucifying contract—and Cleveland wouldn't even be jeopordizing their future.

  

Is this team really that far from contention?  

With a healthy Anderson Varejao, this team wouldn’t have made the playoffs, but they sure would have looked hopeful in trying.  Remember, this is the NBA, the Cavs play in the Eastern Conference, and teams are able to "make a leap" rather quickly.      

If you remember back in the 2010 playoffs, the Cavs beat the 8th seeded Chicago Bulls in five games.  That Bulls team went 41-41, it was mainly Derrick Rose, Joakim Noah, and Luol Deng.  That summer, Chicago went out and signed Carlos Boozer to a five year, $80 million deal.  The next year they won 62 games.  A number of people question the money that Chicago spent on Carlos Boozer, he’s been so un-impressive that many have contemplated whether Chicago should amnesty him this summer.  The reality of the situation, though, is that the Bulls were smart in doing what they had to do to get Boozer—which in their case meant throwing max money at his face.  Guess what though?  THey had to sign Boozer.  They needed a power forward, they had just spent the past two year's in "no man's land" as a 8th and 7th seed, they had spent the previous two years saving cap for Bosh, Bron or Wade, they didn't get either one so they looked to Boozer.  That's essentially what Gordon is to the Cavs.  He's not Deron Williams or Dwight Howard, but he's still worth acquiring if you've got every other position filled out. The addition of Boozer (along with Korver) made the Bulls a complete team.  Meaning, they had a PG, SG, SF, PF, and C.  Over the years we’ve come to overlook the importance of this; the importance of having all five set guys.  (See: Boston Celtics).        

But I’m no fool, I can't give Carlos Boozer this kind of credit, the leap that Chicago made from the 2010 season to 2011 was a direct result of Derrick Rose taking it to the next level.  

(And this is the part where Kyrie Irving comes back into the picture.)  

Kyrie Irving finished his first professional season with the second highest Player Efficiency Rating for a rookie point guard in the modern era of the NBA.  That’s second only to Chris Paul’s 2005-2006 campaign.  This year, he averaged 5.5 shots at the rim and converted on 60 percent of them.  As a point of reference, Russell Westbrook averaged 6.1 shots at the rim and converted on 61 percent while Derrick Rose averaged 6.3 shots and converted on 58 percent; Russell Westbrook averaged 6.1 shots and made 61 percent of those.  It’s important to mention how Rose and Westbrook can throw the ball down with the best of them, Irving (on my count) had three dunks all season.  

 

According to 82games.com, Irving was the league's best player in crunch-time situations—crunch-time, meaning, in the last five minutes of games when the scoring margin is five points or less.  In crunch-time, where Irving played 78 total minutes, he averaged 56.4 points per 48 minutes while shooting .544 from the field and .667 from three point.  I’d love to theorize that Kyrie Irving was born with a nugget sized “clutch gene,” but the truth is that Irving’s crunch time numbers have nothing to do with any such nucleic acid combo.  It’s simply a direct product of his being one of the few guys who can get to his spot on the floor whenever he wants.  I should also mention that he shot the ball more effectively than any other rookie point guard we’ve seen since Pete Maravich.

(In case you were wondering, behind Irving in crunch time situations was Kevin Durant (50.8 points), Carmelo Anthony (43.6 points), Russell Westbrook (41.1), and Chris Paul (40.6 points).

With that said, it’s entirely possible that in two or three years Kyrie Irving becomes one of the top five—yes five—players in this league.  It’s crazy to think that, had the Clippers held on to their pick, their team would look like this:

 

PG: Kyrie Irving

SG: Eric Gordon

SF: Caron Butler

PF: Blake Griffin

C: DeAndre Jordan/Chris Kaman

It's even crazier to think that next year the Cavs could look like this:

PG: Kyrie Irving

SG: Eric Gordon

SF: Harrison Barnes (or Michael Kidd-Gilchrist)

PF: Tristan Thompson

C: Anderson Varejao/24th pick

So if it’s between Gilchrist and Barnes at No. 4, who should they take?

Look, I'm done talking chalk, trying to disect the two; at the end of the day it mostly comes down to personal biases and subjective theories.  Here are mine:

How far are we going to take the whole "This guy has a motor like a Duel Dodge Hemi pick-up" and "He's a winner" thing?  That's the Main argument for MKG;  personally, I'd rather have someone like Barnes, who, allegedly, appeared to take games off but is a natural three.  MKG fits the mold of someone who looks like he could fit in that athletic display we saw in the Finals, but we might be overvalueing his strong points such as his open court offense and perimeter D.  Does that really matter all that much at the next level?  I feel like we under value scoring in this league and that's why we've overlooked Barnes.   Having said that though,  I'd be completely fine if the Cavs took MKG.  But in conclusion, my opinion simply comes down to this:  Harrison Barnes needs Kyrie Irving more than Michael Kidd-Gilchrist does, but more importantly... Kyrie Irving needs Harrison Barnes more than Kyrie Irving needs Michael Kidd-Gilchrist.  

Actually I just think it goes Charlotte-MKG, Washington-Beal, and the Cavs are left with Barnes.  Regardless, next season is going to be interesting to watch.  For the first time in the 200-plus years of Cleveland's existence, the Browns and Cavs both have two first round picks in the same calendar year.  My god, maybe the Mayans were right.  

Enjoy the draft everyone!