The Cleveland Fan on Facebook

The Cleveland Fan on Twitter
Indians Indians Archive Indians Playoff Odds and Analysis
Written by TCF Staff

TCF Staff

trophy2013 Cleveland Indians Updated Future Odds and Analysis

The Indians started off the 2013 season slow out of the gate but have turned it on in recent weeks. Now neck and neck with the Detroit Tigers at the top of the AL Central, Cleveland showed the AL World Series favorites that they will not go quietly. Last weekend, they took two out of three against the Tigers at Comerica.

Cleveland was not thought of as a playoff team before the season began, let alone a World Series contender, but by the looks of things, this team is a legitimate threat.

We’ll take a look at some of the reasons why the Indians playing are so well and if they can keep it up. Also, we’ll analyze the oddsmakers’ view of the team, and if we think bettors should wager on the Tribe.

Terry Francona’s Impact

It is tough to quantify a manager’s worth to a team, and often times we become more aware of their mistakes than the smart moves they might make during a ballgame. However, it is undeniable that Francona has made a positive impact on this team.

He is a fiery when needed but is normally smiling in the dugout. The players do not fear him. Instead, they respect him. He is a player’s manager, but for all the right reasons. He sticks up for his guys but also is not afraid to tell them like it is. From a purely tactical perspective, he seems to have made most of the right moves so far.

How much of the Indians early success is due to Francona? No one knows, but he has already seemed to change the culture of the organization in just a few months.

Masterson’s Dominance

Justin Masterson’s dominance of the AL has seemingly come out of nowhere as the right hander currently sports an ERA of 3.14 and 1.17 WHIP to go with a 6-2 record. He also has 60 strikeouts.

Masterson has struggled with inconsistency throughout his career but was especially terrible last season. He had the worst ERA of his career in 2012 at 4.93, and surely no one envisioned this kind of start to his 2013 season.

His last win was the most dominant. He frustrated the Yankees in a complete game shutout in which he gave up just four hits and struck out nine.

It is hard to say if Masterson will turn into the ace the Indians have desired for years, but he is well on his way there. Nothing mechanically has changed for him, but he has been better against lefties this year and is relying heavily on his slider, which now seems to have more movement and break.

However, Masterson is still relatively young at age 28, and many pitchers’ breakouts are seemingly unexplainable and come out of nowhere. It is highly possible we’re seeing the maturation of an ace, but it might be just as likely that Masterson has been lucky through the first month or so and he will regress back to his career numbers.

Bauer Power

Sticking on the subject of pitching, Trevor Bauer while currently in AAA will play an integral part of how the Indians will end up in 2013.

One of baseball’s top starting pitching prospects has been filling in for the Indians in a few spots this season and has pitched admirably. He is 2-1 with a 2.76 ERA in three starts, but his control has left a lot to be desired.

He sports a 1.47 WHIP and has issued 15 walks in his three starts. Bauer has an impressive repertoire of pitches but can really struggle to find the plate at certain times. Still, he has unlimited potential and will almost certainly fill a rotation spot for the Indians by mid-season if not sooner.

If the Indians’ offense keeps hitting like it has, they will always be within striking distance in most contests, but to have a chance in October they will need another frontline starter. That could be Bauer or an acquisition via trade, but they will need to shore up their rotation to truly make some noise in the postseason.

Cleveland Indians World Series and AL Pennant Odds

The following odds were taken from who quoted the best price across all sportsbooks.

Cleveland Indians to win AL Pennant: 15/1

Cleveland Indians to win World Series: 30/1

The Indians still have long odds to win the AL and World Series, but are especially attractive at this point. They are now just now getting the attention of the baseball media and fans and have finally been put back onto the National stage.

Of course, they could fade and not do much this season; after all it has only been about a month and a half. However, as a baseball bettor we’re looking for value. If we had taken Cleveland before the season started we would have gotten an even better price.

If the Indians go on a run and are atop the AL Central in a month, these odds will decrease even further. Bettors stand to make a hefty payday on a 15/1 or 30/1 bet, which if you wagered $100 would pay out at $1,500 and $3,000, respectively. Also, if the Indians make it to the AL Championship or World Series, bettors will be able to hedge their bets and guarantee themselves a profit.

The TCF Forums