Each week, the writers of this
humble little web site get an email asking for a pithy response to a
question posed for that week’s roundtable which then gets posted sometime
on Sunday. With the Cleveland Indians season poised to begin next
week, this week’s question naturally asked for predictions regarding
the upcoming season.
Predictions, of course, are like
nose hair in that most people have some. And it seems to be the
role of those who write about the accomplishments of others to not only
write about the accomplishments as they happen but to predict what might
happen next. In other words, if there’s no news, invent some.
The last time anyone saw a prediction
under this byline was related to the Cavaliers. In that column we noted, with great accuracy, that if
the Cavaliers were as good as advertised they’d win 50-52 games, if
not, they’d win 46-48 games. There was little genius behind
that prediction, by the way. It was made under the simple analysis
of what the schedule held in terms of how many back-to-back games they
played, particularly when the second of the two was on the road.
In other words, and for various reasons, the home advantage seems much
more pronounced in the NBA than in any other sport and thus makes it
much easier to extrapolate the schedule’s impact on the overall record.
In other ways, the NFL is almost
as easy to predict. You rarely see anyone predict a team going
12-4 for example or 2-14, for that matter. Instead, you’re always
safe if you predict that a respectable team will go 9-7 since most of
them do. You’re also always safe if you predict that an acknowledged
lousy team will go 6-10 or 5-11 since, again, most of them do.
Major league baseball, on the
other hand, is easily the most difficult sport to handicap, whether
it’s game by game or over a whole season. In the first place,
162 games is boat load of games by any measure. While that sort
of marathon tends to ensure that the better teams will ultimately prevail,
it also increases the variables one needs to consider in forecasting
the upcoming season. Though baseball is the least physically demanding
of the three major sports, the injuries nonetheless pile up. Outfielders
run into walls or to each other. Infielders are prone to tough
landings on ground balls in the hole or down the line or suffer the
occasional spike to the leg. Pitchers eventually show the wear
and tear of throwing curveballs since they were 10 years old.
Catchers tend to show the strain of all that squatting. Runners
pull hamstrings. Thus, much of the season can turn on the performance
of players who currently reside in the minors or with other teams.
Another variable is the weather.
Rain outs tend to get rescheduled as doubleheaders and doubleheaders
tend to result in a splits. The use of the unbalanced schedule
can be particularly rough on teams in good divisions and teams with
an easy interleague schedule can get fat while their counterparts on
the other end of the spectrum can get slaughtered.
If all this sounds like a cop-out
for not participating in a rite of passage, you’d be wrong.
There are still plenty of predictions to make:
First, I predict that Peter Gammons
will predict a good year for the Boston Red Sox.
Next, I predict that there will
be 132,654 stories about the deteriorating relationship between Alex
Rodriguez and Derek Jeter. In April.
Next, I predict that Larry Dolan
will tell Indians fans that he won’t hesitate to spend money if need
be in order to help put the Indians over the top. I also predict
he’ll never see the need.
Next, I predict that Mike Trivisonno
will conduct three interviews with Mark Shapiro during the season.
I also predict that the toughest question Shapiro will get asked in
any of those interviews is what he had for lunch earlier that day.
Next, I predict that the Kansas
City Royals most current rebuilding plan won’t work, either.
I also predict that they’ll consider another managerial change although
I also predict that most fans inside and outside of Kansas City couldn’t
even name their current manager.
Next, I predict that Ozzie Guillen,
manager of the Chicago White Sox, will say something stupid every other
day. I also predict that Guillen will be forced by Bud Selig to
seek a refresher course in sensitivity training after he goes all Ann
Coulter on a writer who happens to highlight any number of the stupid
things he says.
Next, I predict that Peter Angelos,
owner of the Balitmore Orioles, will express dismay over his team’s
latest woeful performance. I also predict that Angelos will consider
another managerial change although I also predict that most fans inside
and outside of Baltimore couldn’t even name their current manager.
Next, I predict that someone will
do an interview with Billy Beane about how he manages to keep the Oakland
As competitive despite such a small budget. I also predict that
within the first two sentences of the lead-in to that interview, the
writer will mention “Money Ball.”
Next, I predict that there will
be 456,794 stories pondering whether the home run record Bobby Bonds
is about to set is tainted by the lingering suspicions that Bonds used
steroids. In April.
Next, I predict that Bobby Bonds
will act surly toward the next reporter that asks him whether he’s
concerned that he might be prosecuted for committing perjury before
the grand jury.
Next, I predict that ESPN’s
Baseball Tonight will spend the better part of 4 hours of their All
Star game coverage discussing whether the winning team in that game
deserves to get home field advantage in the World Series. I also
predict that one of the participants in that discussion will be a contrarian
and insist that having home field advantage at stake makes the All Star
game more meaningful.
Next, I predict that Bob Costas
will give at least a dozen different interviews in which he says that
having a wild card team in the playoffs detracts from the purity of
the game.
Next, I predict that there will
be 658 stories suggesting that managers in the National League have
an advantage when it comes to the World Series because they are more
used to managing without a designated hitter and are, conversely, more
versed in the beauty of the old double switch.
Next, I predict that at least
three managers will be fired during the season, possibly four.
Next, I predict that there will
be 978,943 stories about how baseball is alienating its younger fans
by kowtowing to the networks by starting World Series games at 8 p.m.
Next, I predict that at least
four games in April and three playoff games in October will be interrupted
by snow.
Next, I predict that at least
687 callers to WKNR (assuming they have that many different callers)
will suggest trading C.C. Sabathia for prospects so that we don’t
risk getting nothing for him when he opts for free agency. I also
predict that all 687 of those callers will say that the Dolans cheapskates.
Next, I predict that following
Jhonny Peralta’s first error, either one of the Indians beat writers
or Terry Pluto will say that Peralta looks uninspired in the field.
Next, I predict that there will
be 954 stories in which Omar Vizquel is referred to as an ageless wonder
as he continues to play flawless defense and hit around .300 for the
San Francisco Giants.
Next, I predict that the next
time Manny Ramirez commits an error in the field or on the basepaths
or takes his iPod into left field during a game, 4,567 commentators
and/or writers will say “that’s just Manny being Manny.”
Next, I predict that there will
be 886 stories pondering why teams in the north and the east don’t
start their seasons in the south or the west in order to avoid bad weather.