Written by Steve Buffum

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The Indians split the last two games of the Twins series in “exciting” one-run form, scoring one run on a miscue and giving up another on another.  In the B-List, Buff details what he thinks we’ve learned about Carlos Carrasco, what we haven’t learned about Justin Masterson, what we barely saw about Cord Phelps, and wonders if the Tribe plans on scoring runs ever again.  He also mentions Alex Cole, which is not all that easy to do nowadays.  You’re welcome.

 

 

FINAL	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
Twins (22-38)	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	1
Indians (34-25)	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	X	1	4	0

W: Carrasco (5-3)          L: Liriano (3-6)               S: C. Perez (15)

 

FINAL	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R	H	E
Twins (23-38)	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	3	11	0
Indians (34-26)	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	2	10	1

W: Capps (2-3)              L: C. Perez (2-2)            S: Dumatrait (1)

 

That might have been the most painful wasting of a game-tying Jack Hannahan ninth-inning homer of all time.  Unless there's another, I suppose.

 

1) Dominant

 

A lot of times fans get in trouble by focusing on what a player does poorly to the exclusion of what a player does well.  For example, Adam Dunn supporters over the years have always said that if you focus too much on the strikeouts, you miss the fact that he is a very productive hitter.  If you expect a #2 hitter to be an outstanding bunter and basestealer, you might miss the opportunity to have a high-OBP guy with some pop who doesn’t run especially well to produce from that slot.  Strikeouts are valuable for relief pitchers, but not the only way to get a batter out.

 

And, of course, the flip side is to overvalue something a player does well and consider him an all-around success while not paying enough attention to his shortcomings.  Mark Reynolds hit a lot of home runs without actually being a valuable baseball player.  Juan Pierre is not a good leadoff hitter no matter how much wishcasting is done.  Alex Cole was really fast, but not really good.

 

Finally, we’re often unduly influenced by the most recent fan experience: Grady Sizemore hit a home run on Thursday, so he’s clearly back and ready to mash!  Matt LaPorta struck out in a hitless game, he’s never going to be any good!  Hey, these things might be true.  They’re not a whole lot truer because of what happened in one game.

 

So, with this in mind, what are we to make of Carlos Carrasco?  Certainly Tuesday’s outing was tremendous: 8 1/3 innings of shutout ball, his THIRD hit allowed in the NINTH inning the only reason* he was pulled at all, with 6 strikeouts against 1 walk and a lovvely 14:5 GO:FO ratio that included a double play.  Carrasco was in control the entire game, made all the more impressive by the fact that Francisco Liriano and hit Bande of Merrye Lefties were throttling the Indians in similar fashion, so the game was always tight.  His Masterson Number of 20 actually represents a high for the Tribe this season, and the only player to touch Carrasco for extra bases was the same player to ground into a double play (and, ironically, cost the Twins the game with his sub-Duncanian defense).  He reached three-ball counts to TWO HITTERS (one of whom walked, the other made an out) and threw 72 strikes in 104 pitches.

 

And yet in Carrasco’s last game, many were wondering aloud why he was left in the game as long as a sixth inning, given that he largely newtified in the fifth, and completed the process with an equally-terrible 6^th.  Of course, part of the reason he was allowed to do this was because he had essentially sawed through the lineup in the first four innings that night, much in the manner that he sawed through the first four innings on THIS night: in fact, THESE first four innings were PERFECT, as Carrasco retired the first thirteen in a row.

 

So what do we make of Carrasco?  Well, I think it’s indisputible that Carrasco definitely (heck, demonstratably) has the stuff to get major-league hitters out, and at a high-enough ceiling level that we can say he can, at least for stretches, appear dominant.  Of course, the same could once have been said of Fausto Carmona.  Refining this, this makes two outstanding starts to games in a row, meaning that he doesn’t have the Jeremy Sowers issue of having to sock a piss-poor inning under his belt before getting down to business.  The question becomes whether he can sustain this sort of start through, like on Tuesday, or loses his grip/location/release point/concentration/what have you, like the previous start.

 

There are several mitigating factors here: this was Carrasco’s 23^rd major-league start EVER.  He is 24 years old.  And he was facing possibly the worst offensive lineup I’ve seen in quite some time, including the Mariners of recent years.  Seriously, the first three guys had OBPs over .300.  That’s it.  Well, there was the DH, Dinkelman, with a .375, but his AVG and SLG were .167 and this is in a sample size of squat-point-diddly.  The Twins pinch-hit Danny Valencia (.218/.281/.333) for R. Rivera (.217/.294/.326).  Alexi Casilla and his .248/.320/.333 hit second, because he was the best choice to hit second.

 

We’ll have to wait a while to say something truly significant about Carlos Carrasco’s long-term prognosis, and I expect he will have a harder time with the Yankees’ lineup in New York than Minnesota’s in Cleveland.  On the other hand, his groundball stuff is better-suited to New Yankee Stadium than many others’, so I’m actually looking forward to seeing him rather than cringing at the prospect.

 

One interesting statistical tidbit from the game: coming into the game, lefties were tattooing Carrasco to the tune of .368 (39-for-106, starting to look like a decent sample).  Tuesday, they went 1-for-15.  Now, as I pointed out, these were, collectively speaking, a group of LOUSY left-handed hitters.  But if Carrasco’s command and movement have improved, somewhat in the manner of Justin Masterson, to the point where he can pitch more confidently and effectively against lefties, this will go a long way toward making him a pitcher we look forward to rather than hoping to skip over.  And, again, testing this in New Yankee Stadium will tell us something significant, in my opinion…

 

2) Ho Humminant

 

Justin Masterson nearly lost HIS game because he gave up all of TWO runs: such is the fortune of an Indians pitcher these days.  The offense has been so woeful as to cause starters to absorb a couple losses they probably should have had to.

 

Still, it’s a stretch to say that Masterson pitched extremely well: while he allowed only 2 runs and didn’t walk anyone, he only struck out three hitters and did give up 9 hits, including doubles to guys with OBPs under .290 and ISOs under .130.  Of course, Justin Morneau has hit better than .230/.286/.344 in the past, and Danny Valencia flashed better numbers than his current .223/.285/.341 last year as well, but the fact remains that they are hitting poorly in 2011 and Masterson allowed each to smash one off him.

 

If there is a concern, it might be more as to the limits of how effective a contact pitcher can be: not that Masterson often “pitches to contact,” but the fact is that he only struck out three of 30 guys, so the RESULTS are those of such a pitcher.  And while Masterson’ strike percentage of 62.5% is nothing to write hom about, he gave up several well-hit balls on first pitches, and some simply “found holes.”

 

Look, 2 runs in 8 innings is quite good.  Masterson was reasonably efficient and has become a dependable innings horse.  He pitched well enough to win.  Carrasco pitched better.

 

3) Grady Smash!

 

Grady Sizemore hit a home run off Carl Pavano!

 

4) Smashahan!

 

With two outs in the 9^th inning and two strikes against him, Jack Hannahan hit the most improbable game-tying homer of the week off closer Matt Capps, again showing how ridiculous the decision to pinch-hit Shelley Duncan for him was!

 

5) Delmon Young Smash!

 

With his fielding, that is, as he allowed Carlos Santana’s double to bounce past him, gave him an extra base, from where he could score on Duncan’s groundout to short!

 

6) And thus …

 

… I have no mentioned every Cleveland scoring play from the two games.

 

7) Ducks mostly off the pond, but those that go, stay

 

The Indians hit 0-for-4 and 0-for-7 with runners in scoring position in the two games.  This makes them 4 for the last 367,115 attempts.  They left 5 and 9 runners on base in the two games, respectively.  This does not include the two baserunners who were thrown out trying to steal.  Or my spleen, which is gone.

 

8) Welcome to the bigs!

 

Duncan was given the wazoo (in the form of being optioned: it is a sub-permanent wazoo) in favor of poster child Cord Phelps, who immediately showed his mettle by going 0-for-4 in the manner of Asdrubal Cabrera or Matt LaPorta, who joined him in his task.  He did hit a couple of balls pretty well.

 

However, the real notable contribution Phelps made was with a diving catch of a bliner (if a half-fly, half-liner can be a “fliner,” then I can use “bliner” for one that’s half bloop) on a ball hit uppish the middle.  Nice glove, kid!  (Orly does not catch that ball.)

 

9) Credit Where Credit is Due Dept.

 

Chris Perez looked good in his save Tuesday.

 

Tony Sipp was excellent in an inning on Wednesday.

 

Lou Marson had two hits, including an infield single on Wednesday.

 

Mike Brantley just continues to simply get on base, walking twice Tuesday and banging out three hits (3-for-5) on Wednesday.

 

Shin-Soo Choo proved that hitting an extra-base hit is theoretically possible.

 

10) No Credit Where No Credit is Due Dept.

 

Virtually everything else.