Written by Ryan Aroney

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Cleveland State enters Horizon League play on Saturday at 12-2 overall, including 2-0 in league play after sweeping the first set of Horizon League games in early December.

The Vikings picked up solid wins in the non-conference portion of the schedule including a top-50 RPI win at Vanderbilt and top-100 wins at Kent State and at Robert Morris and home vs. St. Bonaventure. The Vikings also knocked off MAC contender Akron and rounded out the non-conference slate on Wednesday with a win at Toledo to improve to 3-0 against the MAC this season.

On the other hand, the two losses were not-so-good as they came to 6-7 Hofstra in a neutral site game and on the road to 7-7 South Florida.

With the focus now fully on the Horizon League (save the annual ESPN Bracketbuster game in February), the Vikings are in good shape to make a run towards a conference championship thanks to their tough defense and their 2-0 head start on the rest of the league (only Milwaukee remains unbeaten in conference play).

Even with a stingy defense that has propelled CSU to its fast start, the Vikings will need improvement on offense and the continued development of its talented freshman class in order to go dancing in March.

Here are my keys for a Horizon League Championship:

Finding a Go-To Guy on Offense:

When Norris Cole was drafted and traded to the Miami Heat, he took the Vikings offense with him. CSU returned four starters from last year’s team, and a fifth when you count D’Aundray Brown who missed last year with a thumb injury, but none of them had a history of running the offense or creating his own shot.

The Vikings offense had run through Cole for two years, and before that it ran through Cedric Jackson, who had his own brief stint in the NBA with the Cavs, Spurs and Wizards.

The lack of a true playmaker on this year’s team meant that many of the five returning players were going to have to take on new roles on offense. So far, the results have been mixed at best.

Trevon Harmon was tabbed as a pre-season all-Horizon League first teamer. The 6-1 senior wing guard was inserted into the starting lineup three years ago as a freshman during the Horizon League Tournament run and eventual NCAA Tournament victory over Wake Forest. He’s been a lock-down defender and a double-digit soccer the past two years and was projected to be the guy this year.

Although his defense is still top-notch – Harmon guards the opposing point guard and often takes him completely out of the game – the Pasadena native has been inconsistent on offense and has failed to take his game to the next level in the absence of Cole and is averaging just 11.4 points per game.

Harmon has also struggled recently with foul trouble, thanks in no small part to his aggressive in-your-face style of defense, which has kept him on the bench while the Vikings were looking for a much-needed basket.

Brown, a 6-4 senior small forward, has returned from the injury that kept him out of the lineup last season. With him comes tenacious defense and energy, but while Brown has always been a solid offensive player, he was relied upon more for his defense and very rarely had plays called for him on the offensive end.

This year, the Youngstown native has looked to score more and has increased his scoring average to a career-high 12.4 points per game. Brown is shooting well from outside (37-percent), and his combination of quickness and strength gives him the ability to drive past slower forwards and finish around the rim. Brown leads the team in free throw attempts and is shooting 79-percent from the line.

But since starting the season with 18- and 24-point games, Brown’s high game was 15-points against Rhode Island, and in the seven games since the Rhode Island victory, Brown is averaging just 10 points per game.

Like Harmon and Brown, senior guard Jeremy Montgomery has been a mainstay in the lineup throughout his career. He was a key player off the bench on the NCAA Tournament team, and he’s been a starter on the wing for the past two seasons while never missing a game.

This year however, Montgomery has been asked to take over the starting point guard spot and he has struggled, both in getting the team into its offense, and with his shooting.

The move to the point has clearly hurt Montgomery’s strength, his outside shooting. The career 35-percent shooter from long range (151-426 entering this year) is shooting 28-percent on the season (22-78). Montgomery has been a spot-up specialist throughout his career while catching passes from Cole or Jackson. This year, Montgomery has looked uncomfortable with the ball in his hands and has often forced up desperation shots near the end of the shot clock.

Despite the low shooting percentage, Montgomery is still a threat from downtown, he just needs to find a way to take balanced shots within the flow of the offense. A move off the ball just might do the trick, which leads me to my next key.

Point Guard Play

Montgomery has an exact 1:1 assist to turnover ration, with 40 assists and 40 turnovers on the season. The turnovers have played a large part in the struggles of the offense, as the Vikings have often labored to get into an offensive set in the half court. The stagnant offense has led to multiple scoring droughts of over five minutes this season.

That simply can’t continue if the Vikings plan to cut down the nets. Moving Montgomery to his natural position off the ball could kill two birds with one stone – get a true point guard into the lineup in freshman Charlie Lee, and provide another “go-to” scoring option with Montgomery returning to his strengths off the ball.

Lee, generously listed at 5-9, was highly regarded out of Huntington Prep and received high praise from Gary Waters when he compared him to Earl Boykins, who Waters coached as an assistant at Eastern Michigan.

The young point guard has struggled mightily shooting the ball – 26-percent from the floor including just 2-25 from three – but he plays with poise and confidence and has the “it factor” – he simply looks like a point guard when he’s on the floor.

Waters has started to increase Lee’s minutes in the past few games, and his post-game comments after the Toledo victory were that Lee needs to be ready to play more. Lee has responded in the last two games by averaging 5.5 points and 2 assists in 17 minutes. The modest numbers might not look impressive, but they’re exactly what this CSU team needs from its point guard.

In the same two games, Montgomery has started to come out of his slump while playing more minutes off the ball than he has all season, shooting 6-12 from three while averaging 11 points per game.

Defense

Any Waters coached team is going to play tough defense, and this team is no different. For the first time in the Waters era, CSU goes ten deep in its rotation and it’s a common sight to see five guys subbing in together as if it were a hockey line change.

The bench includes four highly rated freshman and top-to-bottom, this is probably the most athletic team at CSU since Kevin Mackey’s teams of the 1980s.

The Vikings have two individual stoppers in all-defensive team players Harmon and Brown, and the additional fresh legs allow Waters to press for the entire game.

By the numbers, the Vikings are first in the Horizon League in scoring defense at 57.8 points per game allowed. CSU is fourth in the Horizon in holding opponents to 43-percent shooting – probably higher than Waters would prefer – including only 27-percent on threes while forcing 19 turnovers per game.

The key for the Vikings is to improve the defensive field goal percentage to closer to 40-percent where Waters would like it, while also decreasing the amount of fouls. The Vikings have committed 95 more fouls than their opponents, and although this is the deepest CSU team in some time, the offense can’t afford to have any of the four seniors on the bench for long stretches of time because of foul trouble.

Horizon League Projections

Butler (7-7, 1-1) and Detroit (6-9, 0-3) were picked to finish 1-2 in the pre-season, and both struggled early this season. Butler is looking to regroup after losing Shelvin Mack and Matt Howard while Detroit was devastated in the early going by injury and suspension.

Both teams have shown improvement lately, with Butler knocking off Purdue and Stanford and Detroit topping St. John’s before taking both Alabama and Mississippi State down to the wire in close losses.

CSU caught a break by playing Detroit in the early portion of the Horizon League schedule while the Titans were without all-Horizon League center Eli Holman. The 6-10, 260-pound center is now back from suspension and will be a force in the Horizon League.

Detroit may have dug itself too big of a hole to make it back to the top, but they will be a factor, and anybody who counts out Butler is crazy. 

CSU, Milwaukee and Valparaiso were picked to finish 3,4,5 respectively, and all three teams have a legit shot at claiming the regular season championship. Milwaukee is off to a quick 3-0 start while Valpo has an early victory over Butler included in its 1-1 conference record.

It would not be a surprise to have the race come down to the final weekend – just like last season – with CSU, Milwaukee, Valpo and Butler all with a chance to claim the regular season crown.

Photos courtesy of CSU Athletics