Written by Mitch Cyrus

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The Oscars are tonight, and for the third straight year, Mitch takes a look at the contenders for all the major awards for us, making his best guesses as to who will win.  In addition, Mitch tells us who he thinks should take home the hardware, and also who was overlooked in each of the respective categories.  Last years winner for Best Picture was "The Departed" ... which film will take the honors this year?  Mitch gives us his thoughts.

It’s that time again! Time for someone to tell you all about who is going to win in a pompous show with lots and lots of movies that probably 75% of you haven’t seen!

My guesses have usually been pretty good on these. I went 6 out of 8 last year, after going 5 of 6 in 2006. Which certainly means I’m about to blow it this year.

Last year’s clear cut favorite going in was “The Departed”, and that certainly lived up to expectations as it took Best Picture and Best Director for a long deserving Martin Scorsese.

It’s a little different this year. “No Country for Old Men” has been garnering most of the attention, but “There Will Be Blood” has been getting a lot of buzz lately, enough to make me think back on 2006, when “Brokeback Mountain” was the early favorite, but at the end, it was “Crash” that crashed Brokeback’s party.

Other than the Best Picture race, the acting races are very interesting, as the two awards for actors are all almost sure lead pipe locks, whereas for the actresses, it is wide open.

Best Supporting Actor:

The nominees: Casey Affleck for “The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford”, Javier Bardem for “No Country for Old Men”, Philip Seymour Hoffman for “Charlie Wilson’s War, Hal Holbrook for “Into the Wild”, Tom Wilkinson for “Michael Clayton”

Last Year’s Winner: Alan Arkin for “Little Miss Sunshine”

Overlooked in this category: J.K. Simmons for “Juno” and Chris Cooper for “Breach”

My Preference: Javier Bardem

My Guess for Winning: Jarvier Bardem

Details: Some excellent nominees, as this was a breakout year for Casey Affleck with this and “Gone Baby Gone”, another stellar performance from Hoffman, and a long overdue nomination for Holbrook. In most years, Tom Wilkinson would walk off with this award for his extraordinary portrayal of the mad, but still brilliant legal genius and mentor to George Clooney. But it doesn’t matter, as Javier Bardem has given a masterful performance as a man of pure evil. It will definitely be rewarded.

Best Supporting Actress:

The nominees: Cate Blanchett for “I’m not There”, Ruby Dee for “American Gangster”, Saoirse Ronan for “Atonement”, Amy Rand for “Gone Baby Gone”, Tilda Swinton for “Michael Clayton”

Last Year’s Winner: Jennifer Hudson for “Dreamgirls”

Overlooked in this Category: Charlize Theron for “In the Valley of Elah” and Lena Headey for “300”

My Preference: Amy Rand

My Guess for Winning: Amy Rand

Details: This could go to either Rand, Blanchett, or in a surprise move, Tilda Swinton may win for her portrayal as a nervous lawyer who has lost her way, and decides that she must take any steps necessary to save her case.

Best Actress:

The nominees: Cate Blanchett for “Elizabeth: The Golden Age”, Julie Christie for “Away from Her”, Marion Cotillard for “Le Vie en Rose”, Laura Linney for “The Savages”, Ellen Page for “Juno”

Last Year’s Winner: Helen Mirren for “The Queen”

Overlooked in this Category: Naomi Watts for “Eastern Promises” and Helena Bonham Carter for “Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street”

My Preference: Ellen Page

My Guess for Winning: Julie Christie

Details: Another down year for the Best Actress category, more like 2006 in that regard, as opposed to last year when Helen Mirren won over a very good field including Meryl Streep, Kate Winslet, and Judi Dench. This could just as easily go to Marion Cotillard for her amazing portrayal of French singer Edith Piaf. The precedent was set for an actor to win the top award even for a foreign language film as recently as 1998 with Roberto Benigni for “Life Is Beautiful”. A third possibility would be for Christie and Cotillard to split the “serious” votes, allowing Page to sneak in for her role as the wisecracking pregnant teen.

Best Actor:

The nominees: George Clooney for “Michael Clayton”, Daniel Day-Lewis for “There Will Be Blood”, Johnny Depp for “Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street”, Tommy Lee Jones for “In the Valley of Elah”, Viggo Mortensen for “Eastern Promises”

Last Year’s Winner: Forest Whitaker for “The Last King of Scotland”

Overlooked in this category: Christian Bale for “3:10 to Yuma” and Denzel Washington for “American Gangster”.

My Preference: Daniel Day-Lewis

My Guess for Winning: Daniel Day-Lewis

Details: There is no suspense at all this year for the Best Actor category. As great as Clooney, Depp, Jones, and Mortensen were in their roles, it just cannot compare with the job done by Day-Lewis as the oil baron as he gained all the riches in the world through the course of his life, but lost his soul in the process. His work will go down with Marlon Brando in “The Godfather”.

Best Adapted Screenplay:

The nominees: “Atonement”, “Away from Her”, “The Diving Bell and the Butterfly”, “No Country for Old Men”, “There Will Be Blood”.

Last Year’s Winner: “The Departed”

Overlooked in the Category: “Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street” and “Gone Baby Gone”

My Preference: “There Will Be Blood”

My Guess for Winning: “No Country For Old Men”

Details: I’m picking “No Country For Old Men”, but this is one category where the surprise may happen and it will go to “There Will Be Blood”. Nothing else has a chance.

Best Original Screenplay:

The nominees: “Juno”, “Lars and the Real Girl”, “Michael Clayton”, “Ratatouille”, “The Savages”

Last Year’s Winner: “Little Miss Sunshine”

Overlooked in the Category: “Eastern Promises” and “Once”

My Preference: “Juno”

My Guess for Winning: “Juno”

Details: Dioblo Cody is about as hot as a writer can be right now in Hollywood, and look for her to be rewarded for her completely original script. Why “Lars and the Real Girl” was even nominated, especially over “Eastern Promises” is the stupidest nomination of the year.

Best Director:

The nominees: Paul Thomas Anderson for “There Will Be Blood”, Ethan and Joel Coen for “No Country for Old Men”, Tony Gilroy for “Michael Clayton”, Jason Reitman for “Juno”, “Julian Schnabel for “The Diving Bell and the Butterfly”

Last Year’s Winner: Martin Scorsese for “The Departed”

Overlooked in the Category: Tim Burton for “Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street” and David Cronenberg for “Eastern Promises”

My Preference: Paul Thomas Anderson

My Guess for Winning: Julian Schnabel

Details: From the buzz I’m hearing, I expect this to be the rare year where you have the winner of Best Director from a different film than will win Best Picture. In this case, I just don’t think the Academy has a lot of love for the Coen Brothers, and I think they will take it out on them in this category.

Best Picture:

The nominees: “Atonement”, “Juno”, “Michael Clayton”, “No Country for Old Men”, “There Will Be Blood”

Last Year’s Winner: “The Departed”

Overlooked in the Category: “Eastern Promises” and “Sweeney Todd”

My Preference: “Juno”

My Guess for Winning: “No Country for Old Men”

Details: My order of preference would be “Juno”, “Michael Clayton”, “There Will Be Blood”, “No Country for Old Men”, and just about every other movie I saw from 2007 other than “Atonement”. No matter, it’s going to be “No Country”…unless there is a huge upset and “There Will Be Blood” sneaks in. Nothing else has a chance.

The other categories? Who cares?

Those are my guesses…stay tuned next Friday on “The Crystal Ball” when I’ll either be bragging on myself, or else eating some major amounts of crow.