Written by Mitch Cyrus

---

It's that time again! Time for Mitch to tell you all about who is going to win in a pompous show with lots and lots of movies that probably 75% of you haven't seen! In three years of previewing and predicting the Oscar winners for us here on The Cleveland Fan, The Mitch Man has a pretty good track record. Heath Ledger seems like a lock to win Best Supporting Actor posthumumously for his role as The Joker ... but who wins Best Picture of 2008? What about Best Actor and Best Actress? Mitch breaks it all down for us in his preview of tonight's festivities.

It's that time again! Time for someone to tell you all about who is going to win in a pompous show with lots and lots of movies that probably 75% of you haven't seen!

Last year, I was five for eight on these categories, missing on both actress awards and the Best Director win by the Coen Brothers.

Some of the races are almost set in stone, while others, particularly three of the actor races, are wide open at this point.  So without further ado,

Best Supporting Actor:

The nominees: Josh Brolin for "Milk", Robert Downey Jr. for "Tropic Thunder", Philip Seymour Hoffman for "Doubt", Heath Ledger for "The Dark Knight", Michael Shannon for "Revolutionary Road.

Last Year's Winner: Javier Bardem for "No Country for Old Men"

Overlooked in this category: Dev Patel for "Slumdog Millionaire", Leiv Schrieber for "Defiance"

My Preference: Heath Ledger

My Guess for Winning: Heath Ledger

Details: This is going to be the biggest slam dunk of the evening.  Too bad if you are Josh Brolin, Robert Downey Jr. and Philip Seymour Hoffman as any other year (like the last two or three), any of them would have won for the performances they gave.  But not this year...even if Ledger had lived, he still would have won.

Best Supporting Actress:

The nominees: Amy Adams for "Doubt", Penélope Cruz for "Vicky Cristina Barcelona", Violo Davis for "Doubt", Tariji Henson for "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button", Marisa Tomei for "The Wrestler"

Last Year's Winner: Tilda Swinton for "Michael Clayton"

Overlooked in this Category: Freida Pinto for "Slumdog Millionaire", Frances McDormand for "Burn After Reading"

My Preference: Marisa Tomei

My Guess for Winning: Penélope Cruz

Details: I wouldn't count Tomei or Amy Adams out in this race, but the Academy loves rewarding quirky performances for supporting roles, so look for Cruz's over-the-top bilingual artist to take the statue.

Best Actress:

The nominees: Anne Hathaway for "Rachel Getting Married", Angelina Jolie for "Changeling", Melissa Leo for "Frozen River", Meryl Streep for "Doubt", Kate Winslet for "The Reader"

Last Year's Winner: Marion Cotillard for "Le Vie en Rose"

Overlooked in this Category: Kristen Scott Thomas for "I Have Loved You for So Long", Sally Hawkins, "Happy Go Lucky"

My Preference: Kate Winslet

My Guess for Winning: Kate Winslet

Details: I was very tempted to put Anne Hathaway as my preferred choice, but after losing six previous times, Winslet is also the sentimental favorite for her gutsy performance.  Don't rule out Meryl Streep, though.

Best Actor:

The nominees: Richard Jenkins for "The Visitor", Frank Langella for "Nixon", Sean Penn for "Milk", Brad Pitt for "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button", Mickey Rourke for "The Wrestler"

Last Year's Winner: Daniel Day-Lewis for "There Will Be Blood"

Overlooked in this category: Clint Eastwood for "Gran Torino", Leonardo DiCaprio for "Revolutionary Road"

My Preference: Frank Langella

My Guess for Winning: Mickey Rourke

Details: Big horse race in this one between Rourke and Penn, after Mickey won the Golden Globe and Sean took the SAG award.  My thoughts are that Penn's politics and outspokenness may cost him here, as the more conservative members of the Academy will be overjoyed to have another contender they can vote for with a clear conscious.   

Best Adapted Screenplay:

The nominees: "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button", "Doubt", "Frost/Nixon", "The Reader", "Slumdog Millionaire"

Last Year's Winner: "No Country for Old Men"

Overlooked in the Category: "The Dark Knight", "Revolutionary Road"

My Preference: "Slumdog Millionaire"

My Guess for Winning: "Slumdog Millionaire"

Details: Even if Slumdog sweeps most of its categories, this might be the one that it doesn't win, as "Doubt" may just slip in here for the win.

Best Original Screenplay:

The nominees: "Frozen River", "Happy-Go-Lucky", "In Bruges", "Milk", "Wall-E"

Last Year's Winner: "Juno",

Overlooked in the Category: "Gran Torino"

My Preference: "Wall-E"

My Guess for Winning: "Milk"

Details: Since "Milk is the only film out of this group that is also nominated for Best Picture, it's probably a near cinch that it will win.  But I wouldn't be shocked if "Wall-E" pulled off the upset.

Best Director:

The nominees: Danny Boyle for "Slumdog Millionaire", Stephen Daldry for "The Reader", David Fincher for "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button", Ron Howard for "Frost/Nixon", Gus Van Sant for "Milk"

Last Year's Winner: Ethan and Joel Coen for "No Country for Old Men"

Overlooked in the Category: Clint Eastwood for "Gran Torino"

My Preference: Danny Boyle

My Guess for Winning: Danny Boyle

Details: I just don't see any other possibility than Boyle, even if Fincher, Howard, and Van Sant are all worthy nominees.

Best Picture:

The nominees: "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button", "Frost/Nixon", "Milk", "The Reader", "Slumdog Millionaire"

Last Year's Winner: "No Country for Old Men"

Overlooked in the Category: "Gran Torina", "The Dark Knight", "Wall-E"

My Preference: "Slumdog Millionaire"

My Guess for Winning: "Slumdog Millionaire"

Details: I think this is the year that a little indie crowd favorite runs off with the whole ball of wax.  I just can't see any of the other four films pulling the upset.

Other Picks:

Best Documentary: "Man on Wire"

Best Foreign Language Film: "Waltz With Bashir"

Best Animated Film: "Wall-E"

Best Visual Effects: "The Dark Knight"

Best Original Song: "O Saya", from "Slumdog Millionaire"

Best Musical Score: "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"

Best Makeup: "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"

Best Costume Design: "The Duchess"

Best Art Direction: "The Dark Knight"

Best Editing: "Slumdog Millionaire"

Best Cinematography: "Slumdog Millionaire"

Those are my guesses...stay tuned next Friday on "The Crystal Ball" when I'll either be bragging on myself, or else eating some major amounts of crow.