Written by Jesse Lamovsky

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This season’s conference-and-BCS predictions are brought to you by the opening and closing of college football’s probationary prison gates, as offenders coming and going impact various conference races. Out in Pac-12 country, the Southern Cal Trojans are out of jail and title-eligible again, ready to again play for the sport’s highest stakes. In the Midwest Ohio State and Penn State are going downstate; the caveat being neither would likely have been favored even to win their respective divisions. Down in Orlando, Central Florida fans will swelter in Brighthouse Networks Stadium and watch maybe the best outfit in Conference USA play out the string without eligibility for the title.

There are swinging doors located at the coaching offices as well. More than one-fifth of the FBS schools take first-year head coaches into the 2012 season, including brand names like Ohio State, Arkansas and Penn State, where for the first time since 1965 someone other than Joe Paterno will lead the Nittany Lions. A number of the schools with new coaches- Rutgers, Arkansas, Houston- are expected to compete for their division or conference titles, giving back to the races an unpredictability that the sanctions take away.

On to the predictions:

ACC Atlantic- Clemson: The defending ACC Champions return an array of offensive stars as well as the bulk of their defense and have a favorable schedule with Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech and N.C. State all venturing to Death Valley. The only question is whether they’re over their 70-33 Orange Bowl loss to West Virginia in which the Mountaineers scored five touchdowns in less than eight minutes to turn a close game into a rout. Of course the mental side is always a question with Clemson, but the material is definitely there for a repeat.

ACC Coastal- Virginia Tech: The Hokies are once again the team to beat in the Coastal thanks to a rugged defense and an emerging star in quarterback Logan Thomas, a 6’6”, 255-pounder whose play is reminiscent of Ben Roethlisberger. Thomas will help Va Tech withstand the loss of some excellent offensive talent, most notably 1,709-yard rusher David Wilson.   

Big East- Louisville: A typically stout defense should finally get some help this year as the Cardinal attack- a dismal 103^rd in the nation last year- returns quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, most of his favorite weapons and a veteran offensive line. Louisville won’t be as powerful as it was during the glory days of Bobby Petrino, but Charlie Strong’s rebuilding effort should pay off in the program’s first conference title and BCS bid since 2006.

Big Ten Legends- Michigan: The Wolverines surged back to respectability in 2011 and should take another step forward behind the spectacular Denard Robinson, the Big Ten’s best all-around offensive player. The defense is strong in the back seven, although it must replace physical and spiritual leader Mike Martin up front. The division should come down to the meeting with Michigan State on October 20, and it’s in Ann Arbor.

Big Ten Leaders- Wisconsin: With Russell Wilson off to the NFL, the Badgers turn to another former ACC quarterback in Maryland transfer Danny O’Brien to lead the offense. He’ll spend a lot of time handing off to the nation’s best tailback tandem. Montee Ball and James White combined for 2,636 yards and 39 touchdowns in 2011 and will roll up the numbers again behind a typically dominant offensive line. With Ohio State and Penn State on probation and Illinois starting over behind new coach Tim Beckman, the Leaders Division is there for the taking- and Wisconsin will take it.

Big 12- Oklahoma: You never really know what you’re going to get out of the Sooners- this is a team that hung 58 on Kansas State on the road yet lost to Texas Tech at home- but regardless of which OU team shows up on a given Saturday, there’s enough to win the reconstituted Big 12 and the ninth BCS bid of Bob Stoop’s 13-season career in Norman. Carrying the load will be quarterback Landry Jones and a receiving corps that will thrive despite the loss of Ryan Broyles.

Pac-12 North- Oregon: The Ducks no longer have LaMichael James, but they still boast plenty of speed and playmaking ability, including kick-returning extraordinaire De’Anthony Thomas and fifth-year senior tailback Kenjon Barner, who has been in Eugene so long he might have roomed with Dan Fouts as a freshman. Combined with veteran experience on the offensive line as well as the defense, Chip Kelly’s team is more than capable of ruling the North for a second consecutive season.

Pac-12 South- USC: After a hiatus from the national spotlight thanks in large part to a two-year bowl ban, the Trojans are back with a team that is every bit good enough to compete for a national championship. Leading the way is senior quarterback Matt Barkley, who triggers a powerful offense fueled by 1,000-yard rusher Curtis McNeal and 1,000-yard receivers Robert Woods and Marquise Lee. With plenty of veteran experience on both sides of the ball, USC should run away with this division just for a start.

SEC East- Georgia: Despite a tumultuous offseason that saw several players either transfer or get dismissed- including 2011 leading rusher Isaiah Crowell- the Dawgs are the pick to win their second consecutive East crown thanks in large part to an experienced defense and quarterback Aaron Murray, who fired 35 touchdown passes last season.

SEC West- LSU: Tyrann Mathieu’s loss won’t declaw the Bengals. They’ll still own one of the nation’s best defenses and the nation’s best kicking game, they’ll still return their top four leading ground-gainers and a veteran offensive line, and Alabama still comes to Baton Rouge on November 3. The key man is junior quarterback Zach Mettenberger, who will replace the imminently replaceable tandem of Jordan Jefferson and Jarret Lee. The nation’s top junior-college quarterback two years ago, Mettenberger was dismissed from the Georgia team in April 2010 after being arrested for sexual battery in a Valdosta-area bar.

Conference USA East- Southern Mississippi: Central Florida would be favored here but the Knights are on probation. So it’s down to last year’s conference champion Southern Miss and new head coach Ellis Johnson. The Golden Eagles lost plenty of good people on both sides of the ball but return enough on defense and in the offensive backfield with leading rusher Jamal Woodyard to take the East again.

Conference USA West- SMU: June Jones’s squad goes into 2012 with near-complete turnover on defense and uncertainty at quarterback, where former Texas Longhorn Garrett Gilbert steps in. But the Mustangs return receiver Darius Johnson, who racked up 1,118 yards in 2011, and a 230-pound battering ram in tailback Zach Line, C-USA’s preseason Offensive Player of the Year.

MAC East- Ohio: Frank Solich’s Bobcats roll into the new season with plenty of momentum thanks to the program’s first-ever bowl victory and will look to keep things going with a talented group led by dual-threat quarterback Tyler Tettleton, who threw for 3,306 yards and ran for 621 in 2011. 

MAC West- Western Michigan: While traditional West powers Toledo and Northern Illinois lost their offensive stars of a year ago, the Broncos return one of the nation’s top quarterbacks in senior Alex Carder. The schedule also works in Western’s favor, as the games against Toledo and NIU are in Kalamazoo. WMU must shore up a leaky defense that finished 99^th in the nation and gave up a comical 804 total yards against Toledo.  

MWC- Boise State: Kellen Moore and Doug Martin are in the NFL and the defense is young but in the end it won’t matter: the Broncos don’t rebuild, they reload. Boise probably won’t challenge for a BCS bid- there are too many tough road games, including non-conference dates at Michigan State and Southern Miss- but no one else in the Mountain is good enough to seriously challenge its claim to conference supremacy.

WAC- Louisiana Tech: The Bulldogs surprised a lot of people by winning the WAC in 2011, and with three of the league’s flagship members off to the Mountain West they’re in position to do so again in their final year before decamping for Conference USA. Head Coach Sonny Dykes brings back several key holdovers on offense, most notably quarterback Colby Cameron and star receiver Quinton Patton. The defense is rebuilding, but Tech won’t have to be airtight on that side of the ball to win this league.

BCS Bowl Predictions

Rose Bowl- Michigan vs. Oregon (Jan. 1, Pasadena): Five years ago, Oregon contributed to Michigan’s fall from grace by humiliating the Wolverines in Ann Arbor, 39-7. A rematch with the Ducks in Pasadena would be a fitting climax to Michigan’s rise from the ashes.

Orange Bowl- Virginia Tech vs. Louisville (Jan. 1, Miami): I’d rather watch an NIT game between these two schools than a BCS game. Moving on…

Sugar Bowl- Alabama vs. Texas (Jan. 2, New Orleans): You never know with bowls (especially bowls that are months in the future and might never actually happen) but this probably wouldn’t be much of a game, with Texas making the BCS roster basically by default. Still, it’s a matchup for traditionalists, with two of the sport’s most historically prestigious programs meeting on one of the sport’s most venerable postseason stages.

Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Wisconsin (Jan. 3, Glendale): The Badgers land their first-ever at-large BCS invite and what would be a very interesting matchup with the Big 12 Champion.

BCS Championship- USC vs. LSU (Jan. 7, Miami): While openly admitting this is a wishful-thinking kind of matchup. For years the only team that seemingly has had a ghost of a chance of dethroning God’s Conference has been Southern Cal. Unfortunately Pete Carril’s Trojans always got their toes stubbed against inferior Pac-10 competition, spoiling what would have been a delicious confrontation. I want to see USC take on the SEC; not to bandwagon the Trojans, for whom I have no love, but just because it would be a damned good football game.