I love this tournament. From opening tip on the first Thursday afternoon, to the playing of "One Shining Moment" at the conclusion of the championship game. Here's the way I see things unfolding.
And GO BUCKS!
Duke Bracket
I like Duke to emerge from this region, but there are a couple teams in the bottom of the bracket that could easily beat them to advance to the Final Four.
GW as an 8 seed, after going 26-2 makes me a little nervous for the Dukies, but Coach K simply does not lose in the 1st 2 rds. I think Iona and A&M are two of the most likely double digit seed upsets. I'm calling for A&M to get to the 16 where they will lose to Duke. I saw parts of two of their games late, and was impressed. They've got a real good guard, a beast of a big man, and play tenacious D.
In the bottom, I liked West V going into this thing, but they got a tough draw in my view. So Illinois is a bad matchup for them. They (So Ill) guard the perimeter well and are one of the top defensive teams in the country. And a tough Iowa team looms. I'm gonna say Iowa gets through and loses to Texas, who may have the second most talented top to bottom starting five behind UConn.
PICK: Duke
ALSO COULD BE: Texas
FINAL 4 SLEEPER: Iowa
DEEP SLEEPER: Texas A&M
Memphis Bracket
This bracket has been driving me nuts. If theres some crazy shit that happens in this tourney, it could happen here.
Memphis, UCLA, Gonzaga, Kansas all have pretty equal shots to get to the Final Four the way I see it. I haven't seen UCLA play this year. But, I like their draw. I like Ben Howland and the type of ball (non Pac 10) he allegedly has them playing.
I've got them playing Kansas in the regional final. Kansas is young, but has been playing incredibly well for a long period of time now (16-1 run). They beat the shit out of Texas in a game that really opened my eyes. And the two toughest teams they're likely going to have to beat (Memphis then UCLA) are both young as well. I've been picking against Gonzaga the last five years and will continue to. I've got San Diego State sniping Indiana and Gonzaga.
Kent can beat Pitt if Gerwig can step up and come close to matching Pitts good big man, but they don't have the team to get more than one win this year. I like Bama alot. They will beat Marquette and give UCLA fits.
PICK: Kansas
ALSO COULD BE: UCLA
FINAL 4 SLEEPER: Bama
DEEP SLEEPER San Diego State
UConn Bracket
Everyones got UConn. So do I. But Mich State and Washington are two teams I like as Final 4 sleepers that I have in a couple pools.
UAB beat Kentucky when they were a 1 seed a couple years ago, and I like them to revenge that and give UConn a pretty damn good game. I've got UConn playing Washington in the 16. I've seen Washington play a couple of times thsi season and came away really impressed. They have a great senior guard, play well on D, and are demons in transition. Air Force over Illinois 1st rd also. Bank it.
In the bottom I've got Mich State beating Car-oh-lina in rd 2, and Seton Hall beating Wichita State and Tennessee to get to the sweet 16 as a 10 seed. And I've got UConn beating the Spartans to get to the final 4.
PICK: UConn
ALSO COULD BE: Michigan State
FINAL FOUR SLEEPER: Washington
DEEP SLEEPER: Seton Hall
Villanova Bracket
The Buckeyes are my pick, and it's not a homer selection.
I don't like their draw, but I still think they win 4 straight to get to the Final 4. Georgetown is a tough 7 seed to get in rd 2. And Florida is an incredibly talented team that could easily do what they did the year they won it as a 4 seed over Duke.
I just have a gut feeling that the Buckeyes rediscover their long range touch. Like Duke, when they are hitting their 3's they are almost unbeatable. 6 losses this year were by like 15 total points. Fundamentally sound, great on D, well coached, and well tested. The big man Dials swan song, Sullinger is playing great also in his swan, and I think Je'Kel reignites in the tourney.
If I'm Matta, I'd much rather face Nova than BC in the 8. Better matchup, and BC may be the better team. Everyones on BCs jock though. I almost wouldn't be surprised to see em flame against a tough Pacific team in rd 1.
PICK: Ohio State
ALSO COULD BE: Florida
FINAL 4 SLEEPER: Oklahoma
DEEP SLEEPER: Pacific
FINAL FOUR
Just like in 1999, I think that the Buckeyes will fall short, losing to UConn in the Final Four. Duke will beat a young and exciting Kansas team in a thriller. And also like in 1999, I see UConn beating Duke in the final seconds in the Championship Game.