Written by Dan Wismar

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You could have gotten some long odds in August that Ohio State and Northwestern would square off in the tenth game of the season with identical records, and separated by just a few spots in the Top 25 national rankings. But that is where this strange 2008 season has brought us, as the 25th-ranked Wildcats (7-2, 3-2) host the 12th-ranked Buckeyes (7-2, 4-1) on Saturday in Evanston, with actual thoughts of an upset in their heads. And this was supposed to be OSU's "breather" between tough games against Penn State and Illinois. Saturday, November 8, 2008

Ohio State vs. Northwestern

Ryan Field, Evanston, IL

Kickoff: 12:00 noon (ET)

TV: ESPN2


Down the Stretch


If you rattled off the list of surprise teams in the Big Ten this season, the Northwestern Wildcats wouldn't be the first to come to mind. Minnesota's remarkable turnaround, Penn State's inspired run, Wisconsin's collapse and Michigan's woeful performance would probably all get higher billing. Then there's the team that everyone was so sure would be dominant....and then wasn't so much.

In any case, you could have gotten some long odds in August that Ohio State and Northwestern would square off in the tenth game of the season with identical records, and separated by just a few spots in the Top 25 national rankings. But that is where this strange 2008 season has brought us, as the 25th-ranked Wildcats (7-2, 3-2) host the 12th-ranked Buckeyes (7-2, 4-1) on Saturday in Evanston, with actual thoughts of an upset in their heads. And this was supposed to be OSU's "breather" between tough games against Penn State and Illinois.

The challenge before the Buckeyes is fairly straightforward. They must win out in their last three games and look impressive doing it if they hope to snag an at-large invitation to the BCS party, and play a bowl game in January. They still have an outside shot at a share of the Big Ten title, if Penn State should stumble against Iowa or Michigan State, but that doesn't seem likely.

So the task for Jim Tressel in his 99th game as head coach at Ohio State will be to get his team emotionally ready to jump-start the November stretch run after a gut-wrenching loss to Penn State two weeks ago, followed by an off-week to cook on it. When USC trounced them in September, ending any national championship hopes, Tressel could retrain the Buckeyes' sights on the Big Ten title. With that target now looking out of reach as well, Buckeye fans are hoping Tressel can still find some more emotional buttons to push for his team.

The Wildcats figure to be sky high for this one, playing at home, and coming off a huge 24-17 road win over Minnesota last Saturday, in a game that featured a 217-yard rushing performance by their backup quarterback!  But it has been just one year after all, since Ohio State put a 58-7 pounding on the Wildcats, running out to a 45-0 halftime lead and coasting home to their most lopsided victory of the 2007 season. Granted, the Cats are a better team a year later, but the talent differential between these two teams is still a gaping chasm.

Ohio State's domination of Northwestern (56-14-1) is as impressive as any other conference team's series mark against the league's perennial whipping boy, but the 6th-ranked Buckeyes got outplayed in Evanston in 2004, and the Wildcats snapped a streak of losses to Ohio State that went back 33 years. (It was the first of three straight losses for OSU and the beginning of the end of the Justin Zwick experiment.)

The fifth-year seniors on this Buckeye team were in Evanston that day watching Mike Nugent miss an overtime kick, and Noah Herron score the winning TD in overtime for Northwestern. Nobody on this Buckeye team wants to feel that way again any time soon, and the Bucks have mauled Northwestern mercilessly in their three games since, winning 58-7 last year, 54-10 in 2006, and 48-7 in 2005. 


Dropping Like Flies

One thing we knew about Northwestern coming into the 2008 season was that they were talented and experienced at the offensive skill positions. Senior quarterback C.J. Bacher was returning, along with Akron's Tyrell Sutton and Omar Conteh at the running back spots. Bacher was the Big Ten leader in total offense in 2007, and his top three receivers from last year returned as seniors this season. Eric Peterman, Ross Lane and Rasheed Ward combined for 161 catches in 2007, but those reception numbers are down a bit so far this season as the Wildcats' offense has struggled with a young offensive line and a number of injuries. 

It won't get any easier for the Wildcat passing game on Saturday, for a number of reasons. For starters, Northwestern will be lacking any established rushing threat, since Sutton is out for the season with a wrist injury that required surgery, and Conteh suffered a knee injury this week that will keep him out of the game. They'll also be facing the Big Ten's leading pass defense in the Buckeyes, and they're not even sure their starting quarterback will be healthy enough to play. Bacher sat out Northwestern's victory over Minnesota last week with a hamstring injury, but his backup made a big splash in his first start for the Wildcats.

All junior Mike Kafka did while subbing for Bacher last week was to set an NU record for rushing yards by a QB, with 217 yards on 33 carries, and threw for another 153 yards and two touchdowns on 14 of 19 passing. So maybe they have a rushing threat after all. Kafka is a solidly built (6'3", 220) kid, with better than average speed, but the yardage won't come as easily against the Buckeyes as it did against the Minnesota defense. 

Wildcats coach Pat Fitzgerald hasn't tipped his hand yet as to whether Bacher or Kafka will be his starter on Saturday, but if nothing else, he knows a lot more about his backup than he did a week ago. 

The offensive line is young, with only two starters back, but Al Netter is a promising tackle, and just one of three redshirt freshmen starting on the line for Northwestern. Fitzgerald's focus on the OL in his recruiting looks like it's paying off, but they're in the 'growing pains' stage at the moment.

Developing Defense

There's nothing like a game-winning defensive touchdown to give a struggling unit some confidence. That's exactly what happened for the Wildcats against Minnesota last week, in a tie game that looked to be headed to overtime, when Gopher QB Adam Weber's pass was tipped and intercepted near midfield by safety Brendan Smith in the games waning seconds. Smith's touchdown on the long return came with just 12 seconds left on the clock, and the Wildcats will be trying to carry that momentum into Saturday's contest against a Buckeye offense that has had their own share of troubles.

The defensive line for Northwestern is led by junior defensive end Corey Wootten and senior tackle John Gill. Wootten (6'7", 270) combines great size with rare athletic ability that jumps out at you when you see this team play. At linebacker, you'll see Prince Kwateng and Nate Williams in on a lot of tackles. They are both active, physical players that run well and hit hard. The secondary for the Cats is pretty good too, with some new blood in the person of redshirt freshman cornerback Jordan Mabin (Nordonia). 

The Northwestern defense must be wondering which Ohio State offense is going to show up on Saturday....the one that hasn't scored an offensive touchdown in two of its last three games...or the one that exploded for 45 points in the third one. The off-week for the Buckeyes served to give Beanie Wells some time to bounce back from his ongoing physical problems, and also provided the coaches time to work with Terrelle Pryor on the concept of getting back up on the horse after taking a fall. 

The freshman quarterback took it pretty hard when his 4th quarter fumble was the turning point in the loss to Penn State. Everything we've learned about the competitive fire burning in Terrelle Pryor leads us to believe he'll bounce back with a solid performance against Northwestern, but the overall emotional state of this Buckeye team is impossible to predict until we see them hit the field. 

So What Happens?

Northwestern has had a fine season so far, and deserve all kinds of credit for a great leap forward in 2008. It is fair to point out though, that their conference wins have come against Iowa, Purdue and Minnesota, and their non-conference wins have been over Syracuse, Duke, Ohio and S. Illinois...not exactly the Murderers Row of college football. Just sayin'. 

All the question marks about the Buckeyes' team mindset notwithstanding, I just don't see this Northwestern team hanging around with Ohio State for four quarters. If Bacher (the passer) plays at QB, he faces the league's best pass defense. If Kafka (the runner) plays, and has 33 rushing attempts again, the Wildcats could end up with two injured quarterbacks instead of one. The NU offense is down to their third string running backs, and their QB's have thrown nearly as many interceptions as they have TD's. This unit shouldn't score more than 14 points on OSU.

On the other side of the ball, I expect Pryor and the well-rested OSU offense to bounce back with enough production to put some touchdowns on the board. They'll have to do it without Ray Small, however, as the junior wide receiver has been suspended for violating team rules, and will not play this week. That won't slow down the Buckeyes rushing attack at all though, and the tandem of Wells and Pryor keeping the ball on the ground should allow the Bucks to control the pace of the game, and come away with their 28th win in the last 29 games against the Wildcats. 

I'm thinking 30-13. 

 

Links:


OSU Athletic Dept. Game Notes

2008 Northwestern Roster