Written by David Regimbal

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The BCeStimation is a weekly column that predicts which 10 teams will make it to the Orange Bowl, Sugar Bowl, Fiesta Bowl, Rose Bowl and National Championship game. The name of the column was thought of by me, which means I'm awesome at naming things. Let's carry on.

An exciting slate of games answered a lot of questions and created quite a few more for the elite college football teams around the country. First and foremost, let's welcome Michigan back to the top 25 after beating a very organized and perfectly executing Notre Dame team... er, yeah, something. A big congratulations to James Madison, FCS wonder-school, for beating Virginia Tech in Lane Stadium. James Madison now has the exact same resume that Boise State has to qualify for a BCS bowl game. Actually, now that I think about it, James Madison has a better resume because they beat the Hokies in a real away game, and their current record is 2-0. Boise is still 1-0 after taking week two off, because playing another football game just one week after they played their only real opponent of the season would be freaking insanity! 

One of the other major story lines in college football this week was how poorly the ACC represented themselves. The Hurricanes were beaten convincingly by the Buckeyes; Florida State got absolutely rolled by Oklahoma; Georgia Tech lost to a Kansas team that was beaten by North Dakota State last week, and James Madison beat Va Tech (as previously mentioned). How absolutely crazy was I to have two ACC teams going to the BCS in my preseason edition of this article? I wish I would've stood in front of my bathroom mirror and chanted "the ACC will receive two BCS Bowl Bids this year" three times. If I had done that, the ghost of common sense would have materialized and swallowed me whole, preventing me from ever writing that article. Maybe after this week's performance, the ACC should donate their automatic BCS bid to which ever football team wins the FCS title. 

The strongest showing by the ACC may have been Virginia's close loss to USC. The Trojans were double digit favorites going into this one, but the Cavaliers were able to keep the game a respectable 17-14 affair. Part of me wishes that USC were eligible to go to a bowl game this year, just so I could exclude them from this article. But time spent wishing is time I could spend thinking about more Lane Kiffin/Michigan/ACC jokes, so let's just move on to the predictions.

Orange Bowl: Miami vs. Iowa

Two new teams make their first appearance in the BCeStimation, and they're both paired up against each other in the Orange Bowl. Virginia Tech gets bumped because they pulled a Michigan and lost to an FCS school, and Wisconsin gets bumped because they haven't looked as good as a team with 16 returning starters should. Well, that -- and because Iowa has looked very, very good in their first two weeks of play, but we'll get to that in a little bit.

Why Miami? Oh God, I don't know. But despite being outplayed by Ohio State, they still looked like the best team in the ACC this past Saturday. The front seven on defense held their own against the Buckeyes running backs. When Jacory Harris has time to throw, he can be accurate, so that means he will be an assassin when conference play starts. They have some very dangerous weapons at wide-receiver and a good running back in Damien Berry. That's good enough to convince me that this team is capable of winning the ACC. Oh, and they have swagger. We must never forget the swagger.

Why Iowa? Because Ricky Stanzi, all-American quarterback (not in the football sense) for Iowa is taking care of the ball this year, something he failed to do last season. Through his first two games, Stanzi has thrown 41 passes and no interceptions. On top of that, he's getting a ton of help from starting running back Adam Robinson, who has carried the ball for 265 yards and four touchdowns in just 38 carries. The defense is anchored by all-American (in the football sense this time) Adrian Clayborn, and is only allowing seven points a game. 

Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. TCU

This is the same match up I had last week, so we don't need to get into a whole lot of background to set this up. In fact, that'll due. 

Why Alabama? Because they're going to win the SEC this year. Now for most teams, I have to state the case of why I think they'll achieve a certain amount of success to reach the BCS. With Alabama, I feel the need to explain why I have them in such a small bowl game (when most people have them as locks for the National Championship game). I think the balance in the SEC is going to take its tole on the Crimson Tide. And with their schedule especially, where six of their last eight opponents will be coming off bye weeks... it's just too much to overcome. All of those SEC teams will be well rested and ready to give the Sabanites their best shot, and frankly, I think two of those teams will be able to get the win over Bama. So, until they navigate that schedule, it's going to be hard for me to move them up.

Why TCU? Because their toughest game is behind them, and they'll enter the rest of their games as favorites, most likely winning them all. TCU is currently ranked 4th in the AP poll, and if they continue to take care of their business, they'll remain in the top eight and receive an at-large bid to play against Bama. Keep an eye on your ESPN scroll this Saturday around 6:00 to see the score of the TCU-Baylor game. This won't be a gimme for the Horned Frogs -- Baylor quarterback Robert Griffin can be quite a handful.

Fiesta Bowl: Nebraska vs. West Virginia 

I promised you all that if Nebraska didn't step it up, they'd be knocked out of my projected National Championship game. After a sloppy game against Idaho this past week, the Cornhuskers have been demoted to the Fiesta Bowl. West Virginia hangs on to the spot because no one else in the Big East has a pulse. 

Why Nebraska? Because despite the impression one would get from Idaho's 17 points, Nebraska played great defense this past Saturday. Head coach Bo Pelini gets grumpy when his team doesn't play to his standards, and after crapping their pants against a weak WKU team in week one, they bounced back well against the Vandals. I demoted Nebraska from the National Championship game because the team hasn't really clicked yet. The defense has what it takes, and if the offense finds it's stride under freshman quarterback Taylor Martinez, they'll find their way back into my good graces. But for now, with what we've seen from this team, the Fiesta Bowl seems like a good fit. 

Why West Virginia? Because they're the only undefeated team left in the Big East.* No conference benefited more from the ACC suckfest this past week than the Big East (attention -- diverted). This league is a mess, with only one team making an appearance in the polls -- West Virginia. The Mountaineers last opponent is a familiar one to Buckeye fans. Do you remember Marshall, that team Ohio State hung 35 points on in the first half, and eventually beat by 38 points in an easy victory? Well, that same team had a 21-6 lead against West Virginia with nine minutes left in the fourth quarter this past weekend. To West Virginia's credit, they were able to generate two 90+ yard touchdown drives to take the game into overtime, which ended in a Mountaineer victory. Sadly, this is the class of the Big East. 

*Okay, okay -- West Virginia, technically, isn't the only unbeaten team in the Big East. Rutgers is still undefeated, but they only beat Florida International by five points this past Saturday. A five point victory over FIU is a loss in my book, so... West Virginia is the only undefeated team in the conference according to David's book. 

Rose Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Boise State

With Nebraska being demoted to the Fiesta Bowl, one team from last week's predictions made the jump to the National Championship game. That one team was not Boise State. And because of that, the Rose Bowl will lose it's right to the PAC 10 champion and the Big Ten Champion. They'll be forced to take Boise State because the BCS hates tradition. 

Why Oklahoma? Because they seemed to have put it together on defense after a rough week one performance against Utah State. The Sooners gave up 341 passing yards in their opening week matchup and scared me to death in the process. Keeping them in a BCS projection would be silly after that performance, but Oklahoma bounced back in a big way against a (formally) ranked team in Florida State. Entering the week, Seminoles quarterback Christian Ponder was a Heisman hopeful coming off a big performance. Oklahoma's defense thrashed his production, giving up only 113 passing yards on 11/28 passing while picking him off twice. When the dust settled, Oklahoma woke up in a hotel room with Florida State's lifeless body lying on the ground with blood everywhere, and written on the walls was the score: 47-17. (Maybe that was a little over the top, but you get the point... Florida State got killed.)

Why Boise State? Because no matter how much all of us hates it, they're going to go undefeated, and they're going to get an automatic bid. Because the Rose Bowl has to take a non AQ team if it loses one of its regulars (PAC 10 or Big Ten champion) to the National Championship game, they'll be required to take Boise. If the Rose Bowl then picks up Oklahoma, we'll get a rematch of the memorable 2006 Fiesta Bowl game that started this whole mess with the Broncos. I doubt this year's edition of the game would be able to top 2006's version, unless they were able to duplicate the drama. I need to check to see if Boise State's Kellen Moore is dating any of the cheerleader's, and if that relationship is getting serious at all. If it is, and Boise beats Oklahoma in double overtime followed by Kellen Moore proposing, then I guess this Rose Bowl would be a better game. I love when football gives me little side stories like this.

National Championship Game: Ohio State vs. Oregon

REMATCH!!! 

Why Ohio State? The Buckeyes proved that their preseason ranking was justified by outclassing the Miami Hurricanes. Dating back to last season, four of Ohio State's last six opponents were top 12 teams, and all four of those games were victories for the Buckeyes. Coach Tressel has finally gotten that big-game monkey off of his back, and has proved that he can win the tough ones. Pryor is avoiding the mistakes that doomed this team last year, and the defense is insanely opportunistic with their plus seven turnover margin through two games. I hope all of you Buckeye fans saved room for dessert, because the next few games for Ohio State are delicious looking cupcakes. <-- Awesome, not overly used joke. 

Why Oregon? Because they're fast, they're playing within the system, and it seems like they're mad at the world and taking it out on their opponents. After posting 72 points of offense in week one, the Ducks followed it up with a dominating 35 point win over Tennessee, a member of God's conference. Oregon's running backs are churning out yard after yard on the ground and currently have the fifth best rushing attack in the country. The difference between this year's team and last year's squad appears to be passing production, with the advantage going to the 2010 version of the Ducks. The defense returned nine starters and is only giving up six and a half points a game so far. With an easy PAC 10 schedule, I like Oregon to go undefeated to set up a rematch of last year's Rose Bowl game.

BCeStimation Archive:

Preseason

Week One