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Browns Browns Archive NFL Outsider Picks - Week 1
Written by Chris Hutchison

Chris Hutchison

Stacks of_moneyThis season, I will attempt to further confuse your gambling ways with my weekly NFL (and Buckeye) picks.  Along with my selections, I will also provide the picks of DJC - an acquaintance of mine who could be described as a Vegas insider and would like to maintain his anonymity - and BT, a former exec for a professional sports team wishing to maintain the same.

All odds are from VegasInsider.com:

UCF at Ohio State -18

Me - I was at the UCF-Akron game last week, and the score line was way out of whack with the equality of competition.  The blowout was all about Zips mistakes.  Akron was able to move the ball fairly efficiently with their version of the spread, so I see no reason why OSU's vastly superior athletes can't.  If the Buckeyes can stop UCF's run game (shouldn't be a huge issue), they'll cover the 18 by Halftime.  Pick: OSU

DJC - If this were 2007 I would have taken UCF and the points. I hated Urban Meyer in 2007. Not anymore...  Pick: OSU

BT - UCF is good enough to cover.  Pick: Whatever the Hell It Is That UCF Is

PHI at CLE +8.5

Me - The biggest home dog of the week is easily the Browns, and the line has just kept climbing since it opened.  Honestly, I think most Cleveland fans would find a 10 point loss "hopeful" at this point, so I'd hate to advocate betting with your heart.  Pick: Eagles

DJC - Pick: Eagles

BT - Pick: Eagles

IND at CHI -9.5

Me - Indy is pretty talent-thin, but one shouldn't underestimate the influence of a good QB on a game, and Andrew Luck has looked great so far.  Colts lose, but might cover.  Pick: Colts

DJC - Never underestimate Colby Fleener.  Pick: Colts

BT - Pick: Bears

BUF at NYJ -3

Me - It might be a couple weeks until teams figure out how to stop whatever the Tebow Package will be with New York, so I think that's long enough for the Jets to cover at home.  Pick: Jets

DJC - Pick: Bills

BT - Pick: Jets

WAS at NO -7

Me - The Redskins are a huge enigma to me at this point - they could suck or they could be a surprise.  But I know what the Saints are... and that's besides "really angry".  Pick: Saints

DJC - I really believe in Coach Brees.  Pick: Saints

BT - Pick: Saints

NE at TEN +5.5

Me - If Matt Hasselbeck were the QB, I'd be very tempted to take the Titans as a home dog.  I might even be tempted to pick them outright.  But Jake Locker... I don't know if he'll ever develop, but, for this game, Belichick will find a way to make him responsible for at least 3 turnovers.  Pick:  Pats

DJC - Pick: Pats

BT - Pick: Pats

JAX at MIN -3.5

Me - Ah, the Unwatchable Bowl presented by Sven's Sleep Masks.  Gabbert vs. Ponder... hmmmm... let's go with the better running game.  Which is the Jags until Adrian Peterson can prove to me that he's fully recovered.  Pick: Jags

DJC - Ugh. Flip a coin. Is this the worst game of the week?  Pick: Vikings

BT - Peterson is not just a freak, but a god.  Pick: Vikings

miami-dolphins-logo2MIA at HOU -12.5

Me - This game started at Houston by 6, which EVERYONE jumped on in a heartbeat and more than doubled.  It's still not enough.  Miami is all kinds of bad.  As with the USA, the middle class is disappearing in the NFL, and the Fins are living in a cardboard box.  Combine that with the Texans being really good, I'd take Houston even if they were giving 20.  Pick: Texans

DJC - Houston, but never feel bad for Ryan Tannehill.  Pick: Texans

BT - Pick: Texans

STL at DET -7

Me - Another not-so-good team visits the dome in Detroit to face a pretty-good Lions team.  I have no idea how the Rams score enough points to stay within the TD line.  Pick: Lions

DJC - Pick: Lions

BT - Pick: Lions

ATL at KC +3

Me - KC is one of those trendy up-and-comers around the country, which I'm not sure I'm buying yet.  Romeo Crennel is the Head Coach.  Brian Daboll is the Offensive Coordinator.  Peyton Hillis is one of the top backs.  I've seen these guys fail before, multiple times.  I just can't bring myself to believe that they'll all somehow figure it out overnight.  Pick: Falcons

DJC - This is not the playoffs.  Pick: Falcons

BT - Love the Home Dog and the KC BBQ.  Pick: Chiefs

SF at GB -5

Me - This is a tough one.  IF the Pack can protect Aaron Rodgers, then they will easily score enough to win and cover.  Alex Smith just ain't gonna hang with the MVP.  But that GB O Line is suspect, and the 9ers can rush the passer really well.  I think this one stays lower scoring than you'd expect, and therefore whomever wins will do it by a FG.  Pick: 49ers

DJC - Pick: Packers

BT - Pick: Packers

CAR at TB +2.5

Me - Carolina is another trendy playoff pick, mainly because Cam Newton is the belle of the NFL ball right now.  Will he repeat or improve upon his 2011 season?  I rather doubt it.  But that doesn't mean the Panthers won't have enough to beat what was an awful Bucs team (at least down the stretch) last year.  It will be a close game, but a 3 or 4 point win allows the Cats to cover.  Pick: Panthers

DJC - Is Chris Gamble really almost 30?  Pick: Panthers

BT - Pick: Bucs

SEA at ARI +2.5

Me - The Cardinals have the most deplorable QB situation in the NFL, and will likely flirt with the idea of tanking in order to draft a new one in the Top 5 once they're officially out of it.  And their O Line... yeesh.  Seattle wins this one with their Defense alone.  Pick: Seahawks

DJC - Pick: Seahawks

BT - Pick: Seahawks

PIT at DEN -1.5

Me - I so desperately want this to be a huge Denver win that signals the end of the Steelers' current run.  But I have to see it before I believe it.  And I have to see Peyton Manning slicing apart great Defenses like the Peyton of old before I believe him as well.  Pick: Steelers

DJC - Pick: Broncos

BT - Executive Lock of the Week. Pick: Broncos

CIN at BAL -6

Me - Cincy is an injury-plagued team that was overrated to begin with.  Baltimore might be underrated right now, despite many people predicting a Super Bowl berth.  Plus, I can see Flacco having his best year and Dalton being worse.  Pick: Ravens

DJC - Pick: Ravens

BT - CIN to win - Sorry Art.  May you rot in hell.  Pick: Bengals

SD at OAK -1

Me - Here's another game I don't feel good about.  It's basically a pick 'em.  For me, it comes down to Phillip Rivers vs. Carson Palmer.  Which QB would you feel better about going with?  Yeah, me too.  Pick: Chargers

DJC - Over/under on Rivers' picks is 2.5.  Pick: Raiders

BT - Pick: Chargers

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