Written by Chris Hutchison

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Picking against the spread in the NFL is harder than shoving a goat through a keyhole.

Who was to see that the Jets would maintain enough competence to stay within a Touchdown of Houston?  Who was to see that the Chiefs would hold the Ravens to 9 points?

My 4-10 record from last week proves one great truth to me - don't think, just throw.

If your first impulse is to take the Falcons over the Redskins, then don't think yourself into taking Washington.  If your first impulse is that the 49ers will crush the Bills, don't try and get cute and be That Guy that saw something no one else did.

Hit the ball 260 straight down the middle of the fairway and shoot for par.

DJC and BT both went 8-6 last week (thought BT blew his Executive Lock of the Week), so I dropped from first to last in the YTD standings (DJC 36.5-39.5, BT/Me 34.5-41.5).

All odds are from VegasInsider.com:

OSU at IND +17.5

Me - Indiana isn't sorry enough to be this big of a home dog, especially since the Buckeyes are coming off the big win last week.  If they have another offensive explosion this week, then I'll believe the Urban O has arrived.  For now... Pick: Hoosiers

DJC - Let down after last week. OSU will win but not cover.  Pick: Hoosiers

BT - Pick: Buckeyes

CIN AT CLE +2

Me - They can't lose 'em all.  Cincy's not all that good, and Joe Haden's return will boost the Defensive secondary.  Trent Richardson has a big day, Weeden avoids the mistakes, and Cleveland finally gets a W.  Pick: Browns

DJC - Pick: Bengals

BT - Cleveland gets off the Schnide.  Pick: Browns

IND AT NYJ -3.5

Me - Tough to take Indy on the road, especially after their emotional win last week.  But I think the Jets have a letdown after playing their asses off on Monday so as not to embarrass themselves.  Pick: Colts

DJC - Andrew Luck is the Chosen One  Pick: Colts

BT - Jets will rebound.  Pick: Jets

KC AT TB -4

Me - Those silly KC fans - the ones that thought Romeo Crennel was the Head Coaching answer at the end of last season - now are excited that Brady Quinn will save them.  They pooh-pooh the fact that he was miserable in Cleveland because the Browns are "bad", the same way they disregarded Romeo's record.  Attention Chiefs fans:  Maybe the reason the Browns are/were "bad" is because their Coaches and QB's are/were bad.  If you're looking to populate your team with another city's garbage, don't choose Cleveland's.  Pick: Buccaneers

DJC - Very tempted to take KC.  Pick: Buccaneers

BT - Pick: Buccaneers

OAK AT ATL -9

Me - Atlanta doesn't have a very good run defense, but fortunately they're playing (oddly) the worst run offense in the league.  Where have you gone, Darren McFadden?  Oakland's win over the Steelers doesn't look nearly as impressive now that the lowly Titans have beaten them too.  Pick: Falcons

DJC - Pick: Falcons

BT - Wow, Oakland stinks.  Pick: Falcons

DAL AT BAL -3.5

Me - The Cowboys are coming off the Bye after getting beaten senseless by the Bears at home.  Baltimore may have the division wrapped up by Thanksgiving, but that doesn't mean they won't want to make an example of Tony Romo and that wildly inconsistent Dallas team.  It wouldn't shock me at all if they won outright, but something tells me the implosion has just begun.  Pick: Ravens

DJC - Pick: Ravens

BT - A good game if Dallas shows up.  Too bad they won't.  Ravens in the Executive Lock of the Week.  Pick: Ravens

DET AT PHI -3.5

Me - The Paper Lions of Detroit face off against the Mutant Eagles of Philadelphia.  Philly's D Line will have a field day against the weak Detroit OL.  Stafford seems off this year, and the running game is still window dressing.  Pick: Eagles

DJC - Pick: Lions

BT - Pick: Eagles

STL AT MIA -4

Me - Both of these teams are playing above their talent level, and are pretty evenly matched.  If it comes down to QB play, Bradford is superior to Tannehill (even though Tanny isn't as hellishly bad as I thought he'd be).  Pick: Rams

DJC- Pick: Rams

BT- Run Bush Run!  Pick: Dolphins

NE AT SEA +3.5

Me - There's no way I'm betting against the Pats right now.  Seattle is WAY too offensively challenged to hang in this game (which is exactly what I wrote about the Cards, and they ended up winning).  Pick: Patriots

DJC - Pick: Patriots

BT - The Pats will hammer Russell.  Pick: Patriots

BUF AT ARI -4.5

Me - Through 3 1/2 games, it felt like the Bills had finally arrived.  2-1, up 14 on the Patriots, looking at 3-1 and an outright Division lead... and then it all fell apart.  One minute they were the toast of the ball, the next they woke up in a dumpster with a nasty anal rash and missing an arm.  Like the Browns, this is the kind of team that has trouble righting a free fall once it starts.  Pick: Cardinals

DJC - Pick: Cardinals

BT - Pick: Cardinals baby!

MIN AT WAS -1.5

Me - Minnesota's D is for real, and there's a real possibility that the Skins lay off running RG3 this week to protect him from more hits like the smashing he took last week.  And if they don't run RG3, their entire offense will struggle.  And Minny's actually getting points...  Pick: Vikings

DJC - Jared Allen is a grown-ass man.  Pick: Vikings

BT - I like the Vikes a lot... and Peterson too.  Pick: Vikings

NYG AT SF -6.5

Me - A great game, and a hard one to call.  The 49ers have a great D, but the Giants are gonna get their points no matter who they play.  I'm of the mind that this will be very close, and that even if the 49ers win (which is very possible), they won't cover.  Pick: Giants

DJC - Pick: 49ers

BT - I benched Eli, he'll probably go off.  New York to cover.  Pick: Giants

GB AT HOU -3.5

Me - Another great game.  Not often you see a 2-3 team only getting 3 points at a 5-0 opponent, especially right after their primary RB got keelhauled.  Should be very entertaining, but Houston's got too many weapons for the Pack.  Green Bay really screwed the pooch letting last week's game slide away on them.  2-4 is not an enviable place to be in that Division.  Pick: Texans

DJC - Pick: Texans

BT - Take the points, Rodgers does his discount double check!  Pick: Packers

DEN AT SD -1

Me - The Patriots showed last week that Denver can be thrown upon.  The Chargers will try to do plenty of that.  Only giving 1 at home... Pick: Chargers

DJC - Peyton is still pretty good.  Pick: Broncos

BT - Phillip Rivers is my new boy.  Lightning Bolts!  Pick: Chargers