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Browns Browns Archive NFL Outsider Picks - Week 12
Written by Chris Hutchison

Chris Hutchison

BeggingForChangeI'd like to crow about my season-best-tying 9-5 record last week, except those other two gentlemen also achieved the same record, so I cannot without doubt state that my fabulous winnings were the result of my new system and not just a merciful week betting-wise for all.

For the year, DJC has now broken the .500 hymen and sits at 81-77; 78-80 for me, and 76-82 for BT, who has dropped to 5-6 in his Executive Whiffs.

As this is a little late in release, we will nix the Ohio State-Michigan pick (which I can unwaveringly say I chose correctly despite what I actually wrote down) and just enjoy a faux National Championship, all while giggling hysterically at how Big Eastian the Big 10 Championship Game will be with 2 of the better programs on probation.  Which of Nebraska or Wisconsin will win the right to a BCS Bowl Slaughter?  Oooooooo, can't wait to see.

Anyway, time is short this week, so on with the show...

All odds are from VegasInsider.com:

PIT at CLE +1

Me - If the stinkin' Browns are to win one more stinkin' game this stinkin' year, let it be this one.  Third string QB, injuries all around... time to send the unwashed horde of towel toters back to Steal City with pouty faces.  The Hutchison Exotic Rating Organization (HERO) has PIT as 5.5 favorites, but with the 3 point Injured QB adjustment, that's just 2.5.  Which is still more than the 1 point Vegas has put this game at.  Sorry, Browns fans, but it looks like yet another pathetic loss in another lost year.  Cue the violins.  Pick: Steelers

DJC - Pick: Browns

BT - Pick: Browns

OAK at CIN -8

Me - Usually these big lines end up being fool's gold in the NFL, but the Raiders are terrible and why does it seem that Cincy has had the easiest schedule in the league?  They have 5 wins against teams that are a combined 15-36, and now along comes 3-7 Oakland to offer themselves up as another sacrifice to mediocrity.  My system says Cincy by 13 though, so 8 seems safe enough for them to cover.  Pick: Bengals

DJC - Pick: Raiders

BT - Dalton needs a big game for my fantasy hopes.  Pick: Bengals

BUF at IND -3

Me - Despite their "gaudy" 6-4 record, I only have Indy ranked as the #20 team due to the fact that they win a lot of tight ones against bad teams and get blown to smithereens by the good ones (and the Jets).  So I can certainly see them getting smoked at home by a schizo Bills team. But I'm going with HERO, and the system says Indy by 5. Pick: Colts

DJC - Fleener time.  Pick: Colts

BT - Pick: Colts

DEN at KC +10.5

Me - KC rolled in at a glorious #32 this week, primed and poised to select a mediocre QB prospect #1 overall in the 2013 draft.  Denver is rolling and ranked a season high 5, so this looks like another slaughter (on paper).  I still feel nervous about a 10 1/2 point home dog - if I were eschewing the system I would probably take the Romeos.  But the calculations tell me Denver by 15, so I'm going with that.  Pick: Broncos

DJC - Pick: Broncos

BT - Pick: Chiefs

TEN at JAX +3.5

Me - This will be a thriller, watched by literally hundreds of people in the greater Jacksonville and Nashville areas.  Normally I would deduct the Jags 3 points for an injured starting QB, but in their case they get better when Blaine Gabbert is on the bench.  Same probably goes for Tennessee and their also-drab 2011 QB prospect Jake Locker.  TEN by 1 is my line, so if you're betting in Vegas...  Pick: Jaguars

DJC - Pick: Jaguars

BT - Pick: Jaguars (I think)

MIN at CHI Pk

Me - Wow, what a disaster the Bears must be without Cutler for them to be a pick-'em at home against a blah Vikings team.  Yeah, I know that Jason Campbell wasn't overly inspiring last week, but that was against a dominant Niners D.  And it's not like Christian Ponder is Drew Brees here.  Bears are #6, Vikes are #13, I make Chicago 4.5 point favorites.  And if Cutler plays (which it sounds like he might), bump that up to a full TD.  Pick: Bears

DJC - Pick: Vikings

BT - Pick: Bears

ATL at TB +1

Me - NOW we get to see if the Bucs are for real.  The NFC playoff race is going to be a dandy one, and if Tampa can somehow beat the Falcons they will establish themselves as a front-runner for one of those Wild Card spots.  HERO says ATL by .5, but I'll be rooting for the underdogs.  Pick: Buccaneers

DJC- Pick: Falcons

BT- Pick: Buccaneers

SEA at MIA +3

Me - Ryan Tannehill is starting to look like a rookie (and the least polished of the 5 rookie starters).  Seattle has a great Defense and are in the midst of a Wild Card run.  Everything points towards a Hawks win.  But only by 1, so I guess I have to take the home dog.  Pick: Dolphins

DJC - Pick: Dolphins

BT - Pick: Dolphins

BAL at SD +1

Me - My crystal ball says that this will be an offensive game, so start any San Diego or Baltimore players you can in your fantasy league.  I'm guessing that the Chargers are still harboring hopes of a playoff run, but, come on, let's be serious people.  The AFC West blows.  Baltimore by 3.  Pick: Ravens

DJC - Pick: Chargers

BT - Pick: Ravens

SF at NO +1

Me - I've got the Niners by 5 since I'm not making the standard 3 point deduction for QB; Colin Kaepernick can be a game manager like Alex Smith, and more.  They stirred up a tarantula's nest of controversy in San Fran, and justifiably so when your backup looks better than your starter ever looked in - what? - 19 years of play?  New Orleans is on a roll and playing better defensively and will certainly be looking to avenge last year's playoff loss, but I think the SF D will be too much for them.  Pick: 49ers

DJC - Pick: 49ers

BT - Executive Whiff of the Week.  Pick: Saints

STL at ARI -2

Me - HERO is often close to the Vegas line, but not here.  It has Zona by 8.5... 5.5 if you throw in the John Skelton-sucks pity deduction.  It's hard to know which Rams team is going to show up each week, and both these teams are hard to watch offensively.  I don't think I'd go with the Fishers even if my system said to.  Pick: Cardinals

DJC - Pick: Rams

BT - Pick: Cardinals

GB at NYG -3

Me - The Giants are going through their annual doldrums and the Packers have rounded into shape.  This should be an entertaining game with lots of fantasy points scored, certainly worth watching.  And let's not forget this is a playoff revenge game too.  I have Giants by 1.5, so... Pick: Packers

DJC - Pick: Packers

BT - Pick: Packers

CAR at PHI +2.5

Me - Everybody wanted Nick Foles... well, now you got 'im.  And he makes you appreciate how well the other 5 rookie QB's have played this year.  Who'da thunk at the beginning of the season that Carolina would be 27 and the Eagles would be 29 at this juncture.  HERO has Carolina as a 2.5 point fave after the QB deduction, and that's exactly what Vegas has, so I finally get to use my gambler's intuition.  Pick: Panthers

DJC - Pick: Eagles

BT - Carolina in the Monday Night Snoozer.  Pick: Panthers

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