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Browns Browns Archive NFL Outsider Picks - Week 14
Written by Chris Hutchison

Chris Hutchison

Lost MoneyIs it just me or has this season flown past?  14 weeks have already evaporated since we started.  The college season is already over (unless you're one of those that feel like the Bowl games matter).  The NFL playoffs are pretty well set.  Fantasy playoffs have already begun.  In just a few weeks, we'll be left with nothing but meaningless regular season basketball and the gray chill of post-Christmas winter.

It's not so different from being enslaved on a Siberian ant farm.  And you're an ant.

But as Wipeout proved, if you try to expand a seasonal event to the entire year, you kill what makes it special, and football is one of those things.  The fact that the season seems so short is what makes it so appealing.

Last week was a mess for everyone.  Lots of upsets.  I actually had the best week with a poor 6.5-8.5 record (GB-MIN was a split).  BT went 5.5-9.5 and DJC went 4.5-10.5 (yipes!), leaving us with season marks of:  Me 93-93, DJC 92-94, BT 91-95.

Yes, that's right sports fans; I have taken the lead.

Had I used the HERO System solely last week, I would've gone 7.5-7.5, seeing as I missed the only game where I defied my own rankings.  Stupid brain!  I'll never listen to you again.

All odds are from VegasInsider.com:

KC at CLE -6.5

Me - My Line: CLE by 7.5.  It seems like a decent Browns team should be able to stomp an awful Chiefs team, especially with the Cleveland D playing so well as the season wears on.  But since they are morally incapable of blowing a team out (this season might be the first I've seen where there were no blowouts one way or the other), I wonder if they can cover that Touchdown spread.  Especially with the terrible-but-eager-to-redeem-themselves ex-Browns like Brady Quinn, Cinderella Hillis, Romeo Quebec, and Brian DayOld returning to town.  I guess we'll see.  Pick: Browns

DJC - Pick: Chiefs

BT - Pick: Browns

BAL at WAS -2.5

Me - My Line: BAL by 0.5.  I can easily see RG3 tearing apart that overrated Baltimore D in this one.  This should actually be a really interesting game with playoff implications on both sides.  My gut tells me that the Skins will win, but that could also be the spicy tuna roll from last night.  Might DVR this one while I'm at the Browns game.  Pick: Ravens

DJC - Pick: Redskins

BT - Pick: Ravens

SD at PIT -7

Me - My Line: PIT by 5.5.  POS is back to triumphantly lead his odious team to another win!  The Chargers trudge through the Last Days of Norv.  This one could easily be a blowout.  But then again, SD has enough talent left (and maybe enough pride) to keep this one close.  Pick: Chargers

DJC - Pick: Steelers

BT - Pick: Steelers

TEN at IND -5

Me - My Line: IND by 7.5.  I'm not sure I've watched a Titans game all season, so I can't vouch for how bad Jake Locker is.  He, Gabbert, and Ponder make up the Triumvirate of Uninteresting as far as I'm concerned, but I suppose there is a chance that one of them could emerge to be Trent Dilfer if they play their cards right.  Regardless, Indy is on one of those magical streaks that make no sense like Tebow was last year, and I think they can win this by a TD.  Pick: Colts

DJC - Pick: Colts

BT - Pick: Colts

NYJ at JAX +2.5

Me - My Line: NYJ by 0.5.  I'm not sure I'd watch this game even if you promised me... well, something to do with adult relations and Asian supermodels.  This is a family show, ya know.  The true bet is which quarter Mark Sanchez gets benched again and how many Tebow signs we'll see.  Pick: Jaguars

DJC - Pick: Jaguars

BT - Who cares?  Pick: Jets

CHI at MIN +3

Me - My Line: CHI by 1.5.  Another game that I will avoid watching.  I can't even think of anything interesting to say about this one.  Loud noises!  Pick: Vikings

DJC - Pick: Bears

BT - Still can't figure the Bears out.  Pick: Vikings

ATL at CAR +3.5

Me - My Line: ATL by 9.5.  OK, this is the widest margin The System has varied from Vegas.  And it's kinda scary.  Almost 10 on the road?  Atlanta's not that good.  And Carolina's probably not that bad (they DID lose to the Chiefs last week, though).  But my pick is against the Vegas spread, not HERO, so can the Falcs cover 3.5?  Yeah, they can do that.  Pick: Falcons

DJC - Pick: Falcons

BT - Pick: Panthers

PHI at TB -7.5

Me - My Line: TB by 11.5.  The Eagles seem to have packed it in and the Bucs are in the hunt.  That 11.5 is even without giving Philly the 3 point QB deduction, which they probably deserve.  Andy Reid can't get out of town fast enough.  Pick: Buccaneers

DJC- Pick: Buccaneers

BT- Pick: Buccaneers

STL at BUF -3

Me - My Line: BUF by 2.  It's really an unappealing game.  STL has a really good D.  Ryan Fitzpatrick makes mistakes.  Somewhere along the line, I guess that'll be enough.  Pick: Rams

DJC - Pick: Rams

BT - There's still a team in Buffalo?  Pick: Rams

DAL at CIN -3

Me - My Line: CIN by 6.  I don't feel great about this one.  I don't care what the numbers tell me - I don't think this Cincy team is all that good.  They've padded their record with powder-puffs and now that they start to take on some real teams, they'll come back to Gaia.  But Dallas is the same way, and I guess I have to go with what the numbers tell me.  Pick: Bengals

DJC - Pick: Bengals

BT - Love the Ginger.  Executive Whiff of the Week.  Pick: Bengals

MIA at SF -10

Me - My Line: SF by 10.5.  I hate taking the over in this.  Over 10 with Miami's decent D and San Fran having struggled mightily on Offense last week?  But, as I promised above, I will turn off my brain and go with what The System tells me, and it tells me that the SF D playing a team that just flew 18 time zones will cover.  Pick: 49ers

DJC - Pick: 49ers

BT - Double digits is a lot.  Pick: Fins

NO at NYG -5

Me - My Line: NYG by 7.5.  See, I'm nervous about this one.  The Giants are so schizo and the Saints are fighting for their playoff lives.  But it IS outdoors, and Drew Brees DID look like baby shit last week.  You get pressure on him, he's as human as anyone else.  And I think New York will get plenty of pressure on him.  Besides, it's not like they're not fighting for their playoff lives too.  Pick: Giants

DJC - Pick: Saints

BT - Pick: GMEN

ARI at SEA -10

Me - My Line: SEA by 9.5.  On long road trips, the Cardinals usually lose but cover.  Getting John Skelton back (which is no big prize, but at least better than that Ryan Lindley dude), they should manage to keep it under 10.  Pick: Cardinals

DJC - Pick: Cardinals

BT - Arizona is bad.  Pick: Seahawks

DET at GB -6.5

Me - My Line: GB by 9.  Both teams have been disappointments this year, but at least the Pack is still ranked #9 and will make the playoffs.  Hell, they might still win the Division with the Bears resembling their QB (confused).  Detroit on the other hand... they're virtually no better off than the woeful Browns.  I think GB gets their shit together for this one.  Pick: Packers

DJC - Pick: Packers

BT - Pick: Packers

HOU at NE -3.5

Me - My Line: NE by 2.  This will be a terrific data point to use to measure just how good Houston is, traveling to the frozen north to take on a strong Pats team.  Really could be the game of the year so far, the #1 team versus the #3 team (really, tied for #2 but lost the tiebreaker to ATL by record).  I'm surprised to see the Pats getting more than the customary 3 - that extra half point could be the decider.  Pick: Texans

DJC - Pick: Patriots

BT - Finally a good game.  Pats will cover.  Pick: Patriots

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