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Written by Thomas Moore

Thomas Moore

2013 04 nfl draft logoToday is the day that Cleveland Browns fans have been waiting for.

After months of hearing about big boards, fluid hips, short arms, tight ankles, combines, Pro days, 40-yard dash times, game changers, sleepers, and more mock drafts from the likes of Mel Kiper, Todd McShay and Mike Mayock, it is finally time for the NFL Draft.

Heading into tonight's action, the Browns hold the No. 6 pick in the first round, as well as pick Nos. 68, 104, 139, 164, 175 and 227.

This will be the first draft for the team under CEO Joe Banner, the first draft with general manager Mike Lombardi in the building since 1996, and the first draft in franchise history where the owner is facing a federal investigation for his business practices.

In other words, just another day in Cleveland sports.

So what will the Browns do when they finally get on the clock at approximately 9:30 p.m.?

Unlike last year, when it seemed pretty likely that the Browns were going to address their shortcomings on offense in the first few rounds of the draft, the team could go in several directions this weekend.

It all starts with what the teams in front of them do. No one has ever gone bankrupt underestimating the stupidity of teams like Kansas City, Jacksonville, Oakland and Detroit, teams (along with Philadelphia) that are drafting before the Browns have their first turn. The Lions and Raiders are expected to go defense with their selections (unless they don’t, of course), while the Chiefs could be looking at offensive tackles Luke Joeckel or Eric Fisher with their first overall pick. With a first-year coach in Chip Kelly, there seems to be no consensus on what the Eagles may do.

We get the sense that the Browns would like to trade down if at all possible and try to pick up another draft pick while also getting someone they like. If Joeckel or Fisher are still on the board, that could become easier as teams like San Diego (No. 11) and Miami (No. 12) are reportedly looking for an offensive tackle and may be willing to deal and the Browns know they can make a trade and still get someone they want.

The Jets could be another trade partner as they would seem to need a cornerback now that they have trade Darrelle Revis. If Alabama’s Dee Milliner is there at No. 6, the Jets could be on line 1. There is always the possibility the Jets may be tempted to make a move for a quarterback and with New York holding the No. 9 and No. 13 pick, there could be something there.

2013 04 browns mingoA trade scenario could also come up with Arizona (No. 7) or Buffalo (No. 8) if West Virginia Geno Smith is available as both teams, despite making off-season moves, really need a quarterback. If the Browns can create some competition between the Jets, Cardinals and BIlls, things could get interesting.

There’s also another scenario that’s probably a bit crazy, but since we’re playing 'what if', let’s throw it out there.

The San Francisco 49ers currently have 13 draft picks and, after losing the Super Bowl last year, may believe they are just one high-impact player away from winning a championship.

What if the Browns called and offered the No. 6 pick for San Francisco’s first four draft picks (Nos. 31, 34, 61 and 74)? Moving down to the bottom of the first round may be more of a drop than we would like to see for the Browns, but if you are the 49ers you have to at least take the call, yes? (And just as an aside, that trade works under the draft value trade chart, as the No. 6 pick is worth 1,600 points and the 49ers picks are worth a combined 1,672 points. Although teams are not required by league rules to follow that chart, despite what too many people seem to believe, and the rookie wage scale may have made the chart even more obsolete.)

OK, back to reality because we still haven’t figure out who the Browns will select.

We’re pretty sure the Browns will not be drafting an offensive player in the first round, although if they do decide that Alabama guard Chance Warmack is the real deal, we won’t complain about a pick that will simultaneously protect quarterback Brandon Weeden and open holes for running back Trent Richardson.

2013 04 browns wintersIt seems more likely that the Browns will go for defense, with the question being who will they add to defensive coordinator Ray Horton’s attacking defense?

Even though the Browns brought in defensive tackles Sharrif Floyd and Star Lotulelei for pre-draft visits, it feels unnecessary to go that route with the current players on the roster. We’re more hopeful that Banner brought those guys in to give Lombardi something to do while the adults were busy doing the real work.

The pick may hinge on whether or not the Browns want to add another pass rusher to the front seven so that opposing quarterbacks won’t have any time to throw (negating the fact that the Browns currently only have half of a viable NFL secondary). If they go in that direction, then Ziggy Ansah, Dion Jordan and Barkevoius Mingo, among others, probably enter the picture.

If the Browns decided that maybe playing with half a secondary is just too “innovative” of an idea, they could take the bait on Milliner (despite his injury concerns) or Xavier Rhodes (especially if they can orchestrate a trade down).

We’ve said all that so we can say this: we really don’t know who the Browns are going to take*.

But this is what we do know.

We’ve seen a lot of NFL drafts over the years and that has taught us that there is no one player that the Browns ever “have to draft.”

Once the draft starts, the Browns have to trust their scouts and all the work they have put in since the end of the season. If things start to break funny in the picks before the Browns are on the clock, they can’t panic and do something stupid, like trade to the bottom of the round and select Craig Powell, as they did in 1995. (Oh, maybe not the best example. Sorry, Mr. Lombardi). Trust your draft board and don’t talk yourself out of selecting Richard Seymour because you decide at the last minute your want Gerard Warren.

Whatever they do, the Browns have to select players that they will want to resign when their rookie contracts expire. The team needs to keep building its talent base so that they can reach a point where, if they lose a player in free agency, they are actually upset about it.

2013 04 browns badgerIn a lot of ways, the Browns are at a tipping point for the franchise. Pittsburgh may finally be getting old, Baltimore is in the process of rebuilding its defense because of salary cap problems and, as long as Marvin Lewis is on the sidelines, the Bengals will still be the Bengals.

If former general manager Tom Heckert was right with several of his draft picks over the past three years (and it seems like he was), and if the players the Browns signed in free agency this off-season were worth it (and it seems like they were), then the Browns are in a position to finally start making a move in the AFC North. If Banner and Lombardi can hit – and we mean really hit – on the top two or three players they draft, this thing may finally start moving in the right direction.

And if they can pull that off, then the draft will be a success no matter who the Browns select.

*OK, you talked us into it. Here’s what the Browns are going to do over the first three rounds, because after that it's a crap shoot (and if you've been paying attention you've already figured it out): trade down far enough to pick up a second-round pick. In the first round they take Mingo, in the second round they select Kent State guard Brian Winters and in the third round they fix the cornerback problem – the Honey Badger is coming to Cleveland.

Hey, it could happen.

Enjoy the draft, everyone.

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