Written by Chris Hutchison

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Let's take some time to analyze the Browns-Bills game so we can provide you with a pick that you can take to the bank.  Cleveland is a 3.5 point favorite for the game, which means the experts think they're a half-point better than the Bills with Brian Hoyer at QB.  But we foresee a good possibility that Hoyer might not last long in the game - suffering an injury to either his knee or his knee - and that the reviled Brandon Weeden will have to come in and "lead" the team from behind to victory.

Which sounds improbable, but if the Defense and the Special Teams can each chip in a score, Weeden plays an unspectacular but INT-free game, and Buffalo's starting QB also gets hurt, we feel that the Browns can still pull out the victory, easily covering the spread, winning by a, say, 13 or so point margin.

So our Dead Solid Perfect Extra Special Lock Of The Week is the Browns minus the points.  Bet your mortgage on it.

As for our picks last week... eeeeewwwww.  BT was the only one to escape unmolested.  It was not pretty.

Last week:

BT: 4.5-1.5

MO: 2-4

Me: 1.5-4.5

DJC: 1-5

YTD:

BT: 13-11

Me:  12.5-11.5

MO: 11.5-12.5

DJC: 9-15

This week's games (lines provided by VegasInsider.com):

Maryland +16 at FSU

OSU -7 at NW

Wash +7.5 at Stanford

KC -3 at TEN

BAL +3 at MIA

JAX +11.5 at STL

NE +1 at CIN

SEA -2.5 at IND

DET +7 at GB

NO Pick at CHI

PHI +2 at NYG

CAR -2 at ARI

SD -4 at OAK

DEN -7.5 at DAL (opened at 3.5!)

HOU +6.5 at SF

Bonus - Over/Under 3.5 TD passes by Peyton Manning vs Dallas.

BT:

OSU -7 (at NW):  I have some friends going to the game.  Wish I was going.  Boo frickety hoo.

BAL +3 (at MIA):  Fins have come back to earth.

CIN -1 (NE):  AJ Green will go off.  Talib is not Joe Haden.  Plus no Wilfork for the Pats.

IND +2.5 (SEA):  Seattle with back to back central time zone road trips.  Ouch.

DEN -7.5 (at DAL):  10 point spread wouldn’t be enough for me to take the Cowpokes.  I had to pick up a fantasy defense because I know the Cowboys will get shredded.

Bonus - Over/Under 3.5 TD passes by Peyton Manning vs Dallas - OVER.  Peyton is good.  No he’s really good. No he’s really, really, really, really good.

DJC:

OSU -7 (at NW):  I hate purple. I think this line is a bit lower now. (Editor Note - current line is still 7 at the listed casinos)

JAX +11.5 (at STL):  JAX has to win sometime, right?

NO Pick (at CHI):  Saints seem to have the Bears' number.

ARI +2 (CAR):  Too tough to travel cross country.

Maryland +16 (at FSU):  Go B1G 10!

Bonus - Over/Under 3.5 TD passes by Peyton Manning vs Dallas - UNDER.  He's overrated.

MO:

KC -3 (at TEN):  I believe, kinda.  No Locker makes me believe more.

NE +1 (at CIN):  No early release programs for either team - advantage Bengals (wow have times changed). Give me points and NE, I'm riding that train until it derails.

FSU -16 (MARYLAND):  I needed some home games after my "road trip" to Little Bighorn.

STAN -7.5 (WASH):  Trees pee on dogs (See above)

DAL +7.5 (DEN):  See two above. Reality - I needed points at home to round out my risk score.  Dallas stinks, but Romo lobbied my vote (hopefully those pass interference calls from the officials too...)

Bonus - Over/Under 3.5 TD passes by Peyton Manning vs Dallas - UNDER.  No hedging on this one. If Manning throws for 4 TDs, unlikely Dallas covers. 

Yours Truly:

STL -11.5 (JAX):  A big line for a bad team like the Rams to cover, but I'm riding the Anti-Jags train until they prove me wrong.

STAN -7.5 (WASH):  At home... they're really good... gonna be high scoring, so a 7.5 line isn't so intimidating...

NE +1 (at CIN):  Smart teams like the Pats will make Andy Dalton have to beat them, and he won't.  He just won't.  He refuses.

CHI Pick (NO):  The weather won't be too shitty, so that helps the Saints out, but the Bears really need a win after last week and outside, on natural grass - advantage Chicago.

CAR -2 (at ARI):  I think the Panther D shuts Carson Palmer the F down.  I can see Carolina going on a little roll now, especially if Cam can play within himself.

Bonus - Over/Under 3.5 TD passes by Peyton Manning vs Dallas - OVER.  Dallas will score enough that Denver will have to respond, and the conditions at Dallas work well for Peyton.