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Browns Browns Archive NFL Outsider - Week Eight Picks
Written by Chris Hutchison

Chris Hutchison

BoredJasonCampbellThe long awaited benching of Brandon Eugene Weeden (I don't know if that's his real middle name, it just sounds right) has provided a modicum of relief for the weary eyes of Browns fans everywhere.

Unfortunately, the alternative is Jason Campbell.

Yes, I am highly aware that there have been times in the past where Mr. Campbell looked like a competent QB, most recently in Oakland.  However, the games I watched him play for Chicago last year were, um, uninspiring, and that was a far better overall team than the one he is about to join in battle in beautiful Kansas City.

Listen, I'm not a believer in the Tribal Leaders as a legit Super Bowl contender despite their 7-0 record.  Their wins have not been impressive, Alex Smith is Alex Smith, and I think they are destined for a nice 11-5 record, a Wild Card appearance, and a quick and quiet exit from the playoffs.

But, man, their Defense is playing great right now, and Jamaal Charles is a legit weapon.  In comparison, the Browns have two legit weapons (Josh Gordon and Jordan Cameron), but both of them are dependent upon the QB getting them the ball - which I think will be highly iffy.  Not to mention that Cleveland's Defense is no where near as good as KC's (although they probably match up well against the Chiefs).

The reason the line is a relatively low 7.5 is that Vegas probably figures this will be a low scoring game (over/under is 39.5 points) and therefore might be closer than some think.  I tend to agree this will not be a blowout, but I think a 10 point KC win is in the cards, something like 23-13.

And the joy of everyone excited that they don't have to watch Weeden anymore (myself included) will fizzle into despair as they realize that means they have to watch Campbell and his endless check downs for 4 yards on 3rd and 8.

Cue up endless 1) QB draft talk and 2) QB's-on-the-waiver-wire-we-should-pick-up-and-start talk.

As for the Expert Picks last week... well, I guess everybody going about .500 is good-ish?

Last Week:

BT: 3-3
DJC: 3-3
Me: 3-3
MO: 2-4

YTD:

BT: 22-20
Me: 20.5-21.5
MO: 18.5-23.5
DJC: 15-27

This week's games (lines provided by VegasInsider.com):

TexTech +6.5 at OKL
SoCarolina +3 at Mizzou
UCLA +23 at Oregon
SF -16.5 vs JAX (London)
DAL +3 at DET
NYG +5.5 at PHI
CLE +7.5 at KC
BUF +11.5 at NO
MIA +6.5 at NE
NYJ +6.5 at CIN
PIT -2.5 at OAK
WAS +13 at DEN
ATL +2.5 at ARI
GB -9 at MIN

Bonus - Over/Under 230.5 yards passing for Jason Campbell Sunday at KC.

BT:

OKL -6.5 (TexTech):  The Red Raiders are decent, but not that decent.  Take the Sooners.

Mizzou -3 (SoCarolina):  Is Missouri for real?  I’m not really a believer.  Love the Cocks and the Ole Ball coach, but SC is a huge disappointment.  Give the points take Mizzou.

DET -3 (DAL):  Do I really have to pick 3 more games?  The NFL is turning very unpredictable.  I’m going to the Ouija board for the other games.  It is nearly Halloween you know.  Detroit will cover.  The spirits have spoken.  (They like the Motor City Kitties).

CIN -6.5 (NYJ):  Cincy will also cover at home.  I’m not a believer in either the Jets and Geno or the Bengals and the Ginger.  But who am I to argue with the Ouija.

JAX +16.5 (SF):  Jaguars to cover?  You have to be kidding me.  Not liking the Spirits for this one.  And yes there seems to be a theme with these spirits.  Cats all around. Tigers, Lions, Bengals and Jaguars.

Bonus:  UNDER.  Jason Campbell….really?  Should have been an over/under on whether he is injured for next week’s game and the Browns have to go back to Weeden AGAIN!!!  Damn this guy sucks so bad!  We should have drafted Tannehill when we had the chance.  Under, and he will get sacked at least 5 times.

DJC:

UCLA +23 (at Oregon):  23?  Wow.  I will take UCLA.

JAX +16.5 (SF):  Too many points.

NE -6.5 (MIA):  Brady will go off one of these days.

ATL +2.5 (at ARI):  Harry Douglas is the man.

GB -9 (at MIN):  Is Favre starting for Minnesota?

Bonus:  UNDER.  He sucks.

MO:

NO -11.5 (BUF): The Bills aren't about to pull the "we got lucky" perfecta.

GB -9 (at MIN): Two teams that Brett Favre played for, one of them might have considered calling him Tuesday.

NYJ +6.5 (at CIN): In spite landing in Kentucky for the game, the Jets will keep it close. (Based on the way things are working with New England, I am expanding to the Jets.  If I pick the teams I hate, they lose.  I think I prefer that over getting my picks correct...  That said... The Jets will make sure to lose by 7 or more just to spite me.)

Mizzou -3 (SoCarolina): The pressure's on the Tigers, can they pull thru?

 

Oregon -23 (UCLA): I was going to take this giant bucket of points initially, then I seemed to recall how Oregon tends to look awesome right before they play a good team and then they lose.  The Ducks are at Stanford next week...

Bonus:  UNDER.  Its hard to catch passes from the trading block, leaving Campbell with limited options

Yours Truly:

JAX +16.5 (SF):  Going back to a system I used last year, I calculate a spread based upon team rankings and game location, then compare my spread vs. the Vegas spread to determine which way to bet.  I'm taking the 5 games where the spreads deviate the most (most are pretty close), and this one is the biggest (I have SF by 12.5).  So, going against my better nature, I'll take the Jags (I feel so dirty saying that).

DAL +3 (at DET):  My spread is DET by .5, and I think I would've gone with the Cowboys regardless - they're just a better team than the Endangered Species.

PHI -5.5 (NYG):  I really shouldn't touch this game, even with my spread being Philly by 8.  Vick is back, sure, but he could get hurt with the first gust of wind, and the Giants... no, I have trust my eyes, which tell me that the Giants suck this year.

KC -7.5 (CLE):  I said all I need to already about this one - my spread has KC by 13.  Not sure I'd take the Tribal Leaders at -13, but -7.5, hell yeah.

OAK +2.5 (PIT):  The NFL has decided that since they beat the Jets and a reeling Black Birds team that the Steelers ARE BACK!  Even if that were the case (it's not), traveling cross-country takes a toll on teams, and the Pillagers always seem to play the Plant Workers tough.  I have OAK favored by 2, not the other way around.

Bonus:  UNDER.  Wanted to go over, if only to gain some ground, but just can't do it.  Not 'til I see it.

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