Written by Dave Kolonich

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Call this either an epilogue to yesterday’s story, or perhaps more correctly, yet another in a long series of warnings to anyone associated with Browns’ management, but before we start to get really serious about the coming draft, here’s more evidence to dissaude members of Browns Nation from supporting the selection of either Sam Bradford or Jimmy Clausen.

As if you truly needed any…

However, if the choice comes down to trading a bundle of picks for Bradford/”settling” for Clausen or staying put hoping that Eric Berry falls to Number Seven, then…I guess it’s really not much of a choice at all.  After all, the following history proves that drafting a first-round QB is an incredibly easy thing to do – but actually finding success is a most different narrative.

And while the following may be a bit unscientific, there is nothing illogical about pointing to the follies of recent history.

1999
Tim Couch
Akili Smith
Donovan McNabb
Daunte Culpepper
Cade McNown

Later Round Value:
Aaron Brooks – 4th Round

I guess I’m beginning to show my age by still examining the ramifications of the Couch pick.  However, in terms of a “false start”, could there have been a worse pick to build an offense around?  Couch was great physically, at least until his arm fell apart in 2001.  Yet, the huge transistion jumping from a college spread offense to a more modern NFL system was one that Couch just couldn’t handle.

Does this sound at all familiar?  Colt McCoy, anyone?

If we’re dealing in QB value, would the early expansion era have been much different if Aaron Brooks was the player getting sacked six times a game?

As for the rest of this group, it’s amazing that Daunte Culpepper is still surviving among the NFL fringe, while Donovan McNabb….wouldn’t it just serve as the kind of cruel irony that is Browns fandom if he comes to the lakefront eleven years later?  And to answer my question – No, none of the 2010 prospects are in the same league as McNabb.

And to answer my previous, previous question – yes, it could have been worse.  After all, Akili Smith was a target for a short while.

2000
Chad Pennington

Later Round Value:
Tom Brady - 6th Round

“Special Consideration”:
Spergon Wynn – 6th Round

Pennington is the rare case of a first-round QB who has succeeded in the NFL despite being limited physically.  And no, this is not an endorsement of Bradford, but rather the kind of cautionary tale that could come with drafting a player who already has suffered multiple college injuries.

As for Brady, there were 30 other teams (at the time) who also passed on the future Hall of Famer.  Perhaps this is the only time I can give Dwight Clark a pass for something draft-related.  But then again, it’s worth noting that he took Spergon Wynn 16 spots ahead of Brady.

2001
Micheal Vick

Later Round Value:
Drew Brees – 2nd Round

This is quickly becoming a rogue’s gallery of players whose names have been floated as Berea-bound over the past couple months.  However, unlike Pennington and McNabb, the tale of Michael Vick – pre-dog fighting – serves as an eternal reminder of the nearly unmeasurable dynamics of taking a QB first overall.  The enormity of this list further enhances the idea that taking a QB first overall is the biggest gamble in sports.

2002
David Carr
Joey Harrington
Patrick Ramsey

Later Round Value:
David Garrard – 4th Round

Obviously, the Texans learned nothing from the Browns.  Carr was another QB who shot up the draft boards because of his off-field intangibles and the insatiable media desire to create even more hyperbolic prestige among the league’s glamour position.  Or, how else would you explain Joey Harrington being the fourth overall pick?

Or, Sam Bradford as a potential Number One?

As for the coming draft, even though the QB prospects are among the weakest group in years, would it be much of a stretch to suggest that the Browns could find a decent player in the fourth round?

2003
Carson Palmer
Byron Leftwich
Kyle Boller
Rex Grossman

Later Round Value:
Senaca Wallace/Chris Simms – 4th and 3rd Rounds

Palmer is one of those no-brainer types of QB’s, and perhaps one of the few overall first picks who truly deserved such a pre-draft status.  Or, how about this?  If you compared Palmer coming out of USC to Bradford this year, who would be the better candidate?  Is there even a shred of an argument to be made?

As for the other “first-round talent”, how about this for a completely unscientific comparison?  Is it possible that Colt McCoy is a smaller version of Rex Grossman – without as much arm strength?  Or, Jimmy Clausen as a shorter version of Byron Leftwich?

2004
Eli Manning
Phillip Rivers
Ben Roethlisberger
J.P. Losman

Later Round Value:
Matt Schaub – 3rd Round

The 2004 draft was a virtual goldmine of QB talent.  Unfortunately, I’m not evolved enough to resist being petty.  Any reader of this site knows my disdain for Eli Manning, who I view as the NFL equivalent of a trust fund baby.  Of course, he somehow won a Super Bowl – whatever – just like Roethlisberger.  As for Rivers, he’s close to the Palmer category, both in terms of physical ability as well as proven collegiate success. 

However, in 2010 – it wouldn’t be much of a stretch to rank Bradford and company closer to the ceiling of J.P. Losman.  For our sake, let’s hope Holmgren is truly the “QB genius” everyone has made him out to be.  After all, it would be nice to find a Matt Schaub much later in the draft, as opposed to staking the future early on.

2005
Alex Smith
Aaron Rodgers
Jason Campbell

Later Round Value:
Kyle Orton/Matt Cassell – 4th and 7th Rounds

Alex Smith has become the ultimate cautionary tale in this new age of college spread offenses.  Coming from an Urban Meyer offense, everything that made Smith successful in college was neutralized in the pros.  Throw in the fact that Smith was – and still is – a physically underwhelming QB and the case could be made to eliminate Bradford, McCoy and Tebow this year. 

Of course, Rodgers is the type of player that still inspires some hope on Draft Day.  Considering that his Cal background basically became a huge NFL albatross, he dropped almost out of the first round, yet has become perhaps the best young system QB in the league.  Dare I say it, discounting his size, Clausen could be the closest comparison to Rodgers in this year’s draft. 

But then again, we haven’t made it to 2007 yet.

2006
Vince Young
Matt Leinart
Jay Cutler

Later Round Value:
Bruce Gradkowski – 6th Round

The 2006 draft doesn’t offer much of a reflection for 2010.  There aren’t any Vince Young type QB athletes coming out this year, so his inclusion serves as yet another rarity.  As for Cutler, no one coming out in 2010 has even half his arm strength.  Even Leinart is a bit of an odd comparision, considering that he basically rode the talent around him at USC into the first round. 

Perhaps the only thing worth noting from this draft is the notable head-cases that all three QB’s have become in the NFL.  Honestly, I haven’t even considered this attribute when looking at the 2010 prospects.  Because they are so flawed in so many ways, an attitude problem would virtually eliminate a 2010 prospect from getting drafted entirely….at least in this NFL alternate universe I’ve created.

2007
JaMarcus Russell
Brady Quinn

Later Round Value:
Kevin Kolb – 2nd Round

This one’s just too easy.  Although many have disagreed with me on this point before, the similarities between Quinn and Clausen are irresistable.  They each “play small” and seemed to have accomplished nothing more than pretty numbers playing in one of the most QB-friendly college systems ever.  It just seems too simple, too logical to think that the Browns would take another chance on a player very much like the one who was traded a few weeks ago.

And really, I understand Holmgren wasn’t here in 2007, but shouldn’t there be some type of moratorium on taking two QB’s from the same school within a five-year span? 

As for Russell – my pettiness returns – remember how close Phil Savage came to drafting this guy?

2008
Matt Ryan
Joe Flacco

Later Round Value:
Chad Henne – 3rd Round

Of course, here’s where my argument unravels.  Ryan is pretty much the alpha male of QB’s, while Flacco – although still a bit raw – could turn into an elite player.  However, in 2010 – is there anyone even close to Ryan’s level – not to mention as NFL ready?  Or, is there any candidate who possesses the raw ability of Flacco?

And before someone brings up John Skelton – which I have before – here’s my first bold draft prediction:  because of Flacco’s success and the easy comparisons with him, Skelton will go in the first two rounds….instead of falling to Cleveland in the 5th.

2009
Matt Stafford
Mark Sanchez
Josh Freeman

Later Round Value:
Pat White/Julian Edelmen – 3rd and 7th Rounds

Obviously, it’s a bit early to truly evaluate last year’s QB crop, which may become a pretty good class in time.  Stafford and Freeman are amazing physically, and of course Sanchez benefitted from being pushed into a Roethlisberger-esque situation with the Jets last season.  However, yet again – do you see anything in Bradford, McCoy or Clausen that comes close to matching last year’s first rounders?

McCoy and Clausen have a ton of winning experience at the collegiate level, but do not have the NFL skill set to match.  Bradford pales physically in comparison to all three, and cannot claim the pro-style experience that helped Stafford and Sanchez adjust quickly last season.

The Pick

Here’s the Spark Notes version:  for every Palmer, Ryan and Rivers, there are the rotting corpes of Harrington, Carr, Boller, Couch, Quinn and Smith to serve as cautionary tales regarding the franchise-altering risk involved in taking a first-round QB. 

Allow me to add the following…for a team armed with a dozen draft picks and carrying a dozen more needs, taking a first-round QB in any draft is akin to sleeping with a Polar Bear….or allowing Dwight Clark to set up your team’s draft board.  Doing the same in 2010, considering the overvalued nature of the coming QB prospects is not much different than setting yourself on fire.

Or, setting a franchise even further back.