Written by Dave Kolonich

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With one of the most important NFL drafts ever to face this franchise looming just a couple days away, you would think that there would be at least a little bit of clarity – and/or sanity regarding the Browns’ direction presenting itself.

But then again – had you actually thought this, you would be wrong.

At various points over the past few months, the projected pick at Number Seven has shifted from cornerback to safety to quarterback to wide receiver to defensive lineman and back to quarterback.  Needless to say, new team President Mike Holmgren’s public comments made over the same time period have been a unique mix of off the cuff candor and cryptic coding – leaving Browns Nation more confused than ever.

And of course, the national “media” haven’t helped.

Just in the past few days, we’ve seen this, which was based on this, lead to these, from all over the country, including different time zones - which have come full circle, wrapping neatly in a nice little bow of intrigue.

Which means one of two things: 

1.  Either someone is having some fun with us.

2.  No one – least of us, fans of the team, have any clue what’s going to happen next weekend.

But then again, perhaps this is what makes Draft weekend the funnest non-football time of the year.  Or, the most frustrating.  Either way.

So, in the spirit of both baseless speculation and weak-minded, media-generated hearsay, I offer the following predictions – which are designed to either clear up the murky haze, or lead us all down a dead-end road.

I am your fog-bound child.

What Should Be: NFL Draft 2010

Considering mainly team needs and the general degree of difficulty for GM’s to both trade up and down within the first ten picks, here’s how I envision the first two and a half hours of the draft unfolding.

1. ST. LOUIS – Sam Bradford

Despite all the talk referenced earlier, I can’t imagine any team trading multiple draft picks to move up to Number One.  And before this turns into Chapter 338 of my forthcoming book – Why Sam Bradford Is Not a Worthy Top Overall Pick – let me just offer a quick comparison.  Will Bradford turn out to be a better pro than Matthew Stafford or Mark Sanchez?  Or, even Josh Freeman?

Probably not. 

But even if he does, is this potential worth some 3-4 draft picks, along with 30-45 million dollars in guaranteed money?

Regardless of any NFL personnel men’s infatuation with Bradford, the answer has to be a resounding No….meaning the Rams – like many teams before them – will be “stuck” with the top pick.

2.  DETROIT – One of the Defensive Linemen.

The latest trendy prognostication is that the Lions will take one of the top offensive line prospects – mainly as an investment for Stafford.  However, much like the Rams last year, there doesn’t seem to be one player worthy of the second overall pick.  Because Detroit – like Cleveland – can virtually pick any player and claim to have filled a roster need, the bet here is that they go with the best talent available.

3.  TAMPA BAY – The Other Defensive Linemen.

During this strange journey to the draft, the likes of Jason Pierre-Paul and a variety of offensive linemen have been projected to be Tampa-bound.  However, much like the two teams drafting ahead of them, the Bucs are a complete wild-card, based on their staggering number of roster needs.  It’s not implausible to think that an offensive lineman could be taken here, considering that the Bucs appear to have their QB of the future in Josh Freeman.  Yet, much like the Lions, the impact of say, Gerald McCoy, is probably too much to ignore.

4. WASHINGTON – Russell Okung

Thanks for screwing up the draft, Philadelphia management.  With Donovan McNabb now in Washington, an Okung pick now seems to be a lock.  However, there’s a part of me that realizes Mike Shanahan will go all Mike Shanahan with his first Redskin pick and take a flier on a defensive end prospect or wide receiver.  I would not be shocked to see Derrick Morgan go here, or even Dez Bryant – which leads me to think this could be a prime trading spot.

5. KANSAS CITY – Eric Berry

Maybe there is something to that Chief Wahoo Curse.  After the Redskins muck things up at Number Four, look for the Chiefs to again alter the Browns’ immediate future with a Berry pick.  Although popular speculation envisions the Chiefs taking an offensive lineman with this pick, perhaps it’s appropriate to reflect on 2009.  Scott Pioli took a defensive lineman – in a move that stung of tempered optimism.  Much like the Rams at the top of the draft this year, the Chiefs appeared to be kind of stuck last year – which to me indicates that they are looking for impact in 2010.

6. SEATTLE – C.J. Spiller

Seattle is a little easier to figure out.  It would appear that Pete Carroll wants to make a huge splash with his first selection.  And while the sixth pick is a bit high to grab what will likely be a part-time NFL back, you have to consider that the Seahawks have another pick waiting for them at Number Fourteen.  It’s not a reach to suggest that Carroll grabs one flashy player, followed by a core lineman.

7.  CLEVELAND – Who Knows?

What?  You thought I had an answer?  I don’t even want to guess here.

Instead, I’ll offer this:

What Could Be: NFL Draft 2010

If I can’t talk picks, the least I can do is mention some possible trades.  After all, the Browns’ 2010 draft will likely be shaped by the varieties of trades Holmgren and Tom Heckert can pull off.  Here are a few possibilities…

1.  ST. LOUIS – Call it Stages of Grief: Browns Pre-Draft Edition, but I’m almost to the point where I can begin to cope with a scenario that sees Sam Bradford come to Cleveland.  The reason why?  Because it’s not going to happen.  Regardless of Holmgren’s QB background and the gaping twenty-year hole at the position, it will take too much for the Browns to move up to the first pick.

2.  DETROIT – It would make a world of sense for the Lions to trade down from Number Two, but in their respective case, there probably doesn’t exist a team that would be willing to make the move.  Beyond the cost of making such a move, it’s hard to justify doing such a thing for any player still available.  Of course, there’s always the possibility that the Rams won’t take Bradford, which could create a new market at Number Two.

3.  TAMPA BAY – I would think the exact same circumstances would apply here.

4.  WASHINGTON – While I’m not predicting a trade here, I can easily envision one.  Considering that there isn’t much seperation between the offensive line prospects – assuming that the Redskins are targeting one – I could see Shanahan trading down a few spots.  It’s not unthinkable to suggest that the Browns could move up here in an attempt to grab Eric Berry ahead of Kansas City.

5.  KANSAS CITY – Although logistically, a Browns-Chiefs trade makes the most sense – at least assuming that the draft goes QB-DL-DL-OL, the likelihood becomes that both teams are chasing the same player in Berry.  If such, then the Chiefs have a ton of leverage over the Browns, which would force Holmgren into the sour end of a lopsided trade. 

6. SEATTLE - This draft would be so much easier if only the Seahawks held the fifth pick, rather than the sixth.  If Seattle is truly interested in Spiller, then it wouldn’t be much of a reach to think that could trade down and still get him.  However, in reality, a Seahawk-Brown trade will likely only materialize if the Chiefs pass on Berry.  This is also assuming that the Seahawks would also want to pass on Berry.

7. CLEVELAND - And we’re back to where we started.  Considering that the options to trade up are limited, let’s take a look at some possibilities to move down – Eric Mangini style.  But of course, such a possibility has to be based on the following:

1.  The Browns are not chasing either Sam Bradford or Jimmy Clausen.

2.  Another team picking lower than Cleveland is chasing Clausen.

3.  Both the Redskins and Seahawks stay put at 4 and 6.

4.  The Chiefs – or the Seahawks – or really anybody, has already selected Eric Berry.

5.  Both top defensive linemen have already been taken.

6.  Bradford doesn’t channel his inner Eli Manning and spurn the Rams post-selection.

Which brings us to two solid possibilities and one unlikely happening:

9.  BUFFALO - The Bills are one of those teams whose draft will likely be a combination of adding talent, along with building fan support.  Considering that like the Browns, the Bills are far removed from the days of having a Pro Bowl QB on their roster.  Add in the fact that Chan Gailey likes “mobile QB’s”, of which Jimmy Clausen is reported to be, and there remains a possibility that Buffalo could be interested in Cleveland’s seventh pick.  Of course, such a move will likely be predicated on Holmgren’s supposed new interest in Clausen – which seems flimsy at best. 

11. DENVER - Like Seattle, Denver has some flexibility in the first round, since they just acquired a second-rounder from Miami.  Although the Broncos now have both Kyle Orton and Brady Quinn in the mix at QB, something tells me that neither is the long-term answer.  However unlikely a move here is, there remains a possibility.

26. ARIZONA - I’ll admit that this one’s a reach.  However, if the Cardinals are not comfortable with Matt Leinart and DA heading into 2010 – and how could they be? – they could make a play to grab Clausen before Buffalo and Denver have the chance.

The Writing on the Wall: 2010 Draft

Finally, let’s call this one the Smallest Elephant in the Room.  The OBR has continually hinted at Holmgren’s infatuation with Colt McCoy.  Obviously, I have a thousand issues with this – but in the sake of draft speculation, let’s assume that there is some substance to be found here.  If indeed the infatuation is real, such an interest could impact the Browns’ first round, assuming that the following occurs:

1. Both the Bills and Broncos pass on Clausen.

2. Clausen’s fall translates into stalled movement for McCoy.  After all, if Clausen becomes a late first-round pick, then one would naturally think that McCoy becomes an early second-rounder.

3. If the above two scenarios are valid, then the Browns suddenly have a wealth of options in the first round – including trading down – again based on the available status of Eric Berry, or whoever else they have targeted early on.

4.  Any of what I have presented here this morning contains any logic whatsoever.

The Pick

This one’s easy.  In the words of Jim Mora: 

“You really don’t know.  You think you know, but you don’t know.  And you never really will.”