Written by Dave Kolonich

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The closer we get to the start of training camp, the more we return to the promise of last year’s four-game win streak to close out the season.  In a most rare phenomena, the Browns are enjoying a bit of on-field continuity heading into 2010 under the charge of Eric Mangini – who clearly established a team-first approach in 2009.

Although the 2009 season began with three of the most dismal and pain-filled months of Browns football in recorded history, in many ways the final four games of the season offered a sort of salvation that perhaps our team was headed in the right direction.

Oh, also – there’s the whole Mike Holmgren and Tom Heckert hirings.

Anyway, as it relates to the field - there are some reasons for hope.  But memories being what they are, there are a few reasons to temper our late July optimism.  More specifically, numbers being what they are – it’s obvious we have some work to do.  

NFL.com – Lombardi’s Roundup

What Lombardi’s quick reference to first half scoring seems to suggest is that playoff-bound teams build an early lead through the passing game, then rely on their defense and running game for the ultimate victory.

In the Browns’ case last season, the Browns actually outscored their opponents in the first quarter, then began to unravel in the second and third quarters – rendering the fourth fairly meaningless. 

What does this mean? 

1.  For the 8,457th time, I have to state that the Browns’ 2009 passing game delivered one of the worst performances in the history of modern football. 

2.  Having said this – again – it’s hard to build an early lead without completing at least a few passes.

3.  The running game – incredibly average until December – was not enough to counter the above weakness.

4.  It’s obvious by the rapid decline in point differential that the combination of a weak offense and a tired defense spelled doom for the 2009 Browns.

5.  Throughout the season, the Browns rarely played with a lead.  If you compare the team’s few wins to losses – particularly down the stretch – the defense naturally played better with this advantage, along with the running game becoming dominant.

So, in the grand scheme of hope and progress and front office czars – what does this all mean?

There is more than a little work to do.

From improving the passing game/modernizing the attack to establishing an offensive balance to adding/developing more depth along the defensive front, Mangini’s odd sort of honeymoon as coach will no doubt be short-lived…at least if the following numbers are not improved.

Wait, numbers?  This coming from the guy who lampoons fantasy football nerds and has a general disdain for anything that takes away from raw player effort?

What in the world of Kelly Holcomb is going on here?

Anyway – let’s take a look at some numbers that matter.

Or, in other words – as I’ve stated before – I can’t see the 2010 Browns rising above 6-10 or 7-9 in 2010, but perhaps improving on the following numbers could prove a more worthy indicator of overall team success.

118 Passing First Downs

This is compared to the league-leading benchmark of 241, set by the Colts.  Obviously, in no realistic dimension would the Browns’ passing offense even come close to the production level of the Colts.  However, in terms of basic offensive improvement, the Browns have to do better than this.

Hopefully, the combination of a more competent veteran QB and the addition of Ben Watson will help out here.  Along with these two veterans comes the possibility that the Browns’ play action passing game will yield more production in 2010. 

49.4 Completion Percentage

I realize that the Browns’ receivers contributed to this historically awful mark with their share of dropped balls.  However, in a testament to fielding the absolute worst duo of quarterbacks in team history, the inaccurate play of Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson caused complete havoc in 2009.

Despite playing in an offense that was predicated on shorter passes, Quinn and DA managed to set the team’s offense further back than anyone – even the most cynical of diehards – could have ever imagined.

Again – citing the influence of veteran QB play, along with the continued emphasis on the rushing attack – let’s hope these numbers return to respectable levels in 2010.

11 Passing Touchdowns

This stat reflects everything stated above, as well as the sheer lack of playmakers involved among the 2009 offense.  From redzone plays to the occasional downfield strike, the Browns were never really a threat to score through the air.  Of course, this made an already predictable offense even easier to defend.

While the 2010 Browns will no doubt see endless eight-man fronts designed to stop their rushing attack, the hope is that the versatility at tight end and development at wide receiver results in at least a slight improvement.

25 Completions of More Than 20+ Yards 

In a pass-first league – one that often resembles the physicality of flag football – the Browns still only managed this pathetic number of “big plays.”  Granted, the lack of big plays was limited by erratic QB’s and too young WR’s, but in order for the Browns to even have a chance – this number has to be drastically improved in 2010.

Of course, the problem is that with the exception of Jerome Harrison and Josh Cribbs, the Browns don’t feature any game-changing offensive talent.  Beyond the occasional deep pass, the Browns’ offense is still one of the slower units in the league – meaning that even gaining precious (YAC) will be a challenge in 2010.

31.1 Rushing Attempts Per Game

This number looks decent on the surface, as the Browns ranked 5th in the league in rushing attempts.  However, the lack of a passing threat probably inflates these numbers.  Of course, it is worth noting that if this number holds up in 2010 – or even improves – combined with even a modest upswing in the passing game, the Browns’ offense will finally acheive the type of balance and overall competence we have lacked for years.

And if such a thing occurs, then the following will appear less sinister…

144.6 Rushing Yards Allowed

Compare this to the league leading number of 83.3.  More importantly, just realize that without the above mentioned offensive competence – there is little chance of the Browns’ long beleagured rush defense improving in 2010. 

In a cruel NFL irony, this 2009 stat doesn’t necessarily reflect the overall talent level of the defense, but rather the prehistoric nature of the offense.  Simply put, for the Browns’ defense to finally improve, they have to both get off the field occasionally, as well as catch a break from their offensive teammates.

1153 Tackles 

Let’s call this the D’Qwell Jackson of stats.  Even though Jackson missed most of 2009, this number is incredibly inflated.  On one hand, this is a rare stat in which the Browns ranked among the league’s top teams.  However, ranking fourth in the league in tackles simply means that the defense was on the field far too often.

10 Interceptions

Despite the fact that the Browns’ defense had more opportunities than most teams to make a play on defense, it simply didn’t happen that often.

While this almost crippling number can reflect the lack of 2009 secondary talent available to the team, 10 interceptions is also a huge indicator that the Browns played from behind for most of the season. 

Again – citing the stalled offense and mostly tired defense, for this number to improve – the Browns have to play with the lead.  Teams that fall behind throw the ball more, giving opposing defenses more opportunities to make a play.

-12 Turnovers

If you’re going to be a “ball control” offense – also known as an “offensively challenged” one – then you simply can’t turn the ball over.  Despite the increased level of discipline found throughout Mangini’s first season, interceptions still haunted the Browns’ offense, along with the occasional fumble. 

The Pick

Although it is a paradox of Cleveland sports proportions, for the Browns’ defense to finally improve, the offense must show some gains in 2010.  The presence of competent QB play, combined with a semblance of big-play potential – from anyone – along with an increased focus on the running game would be a start. 

While I’m not suggesting that the Browns need to become an offensive juggernaut, at the least the 2010 Browns need to show some basic competence.  Ideally, a strong rushing attack will limit the staggering number of 3rd and Long scenarios the 2009 team offense faced.  The possibility of a more effective play-action attack will clearly help in this area. 

As Lombardi’s numbers reflected – along with all the ones I provided – the Browns’ defense proved ineffective simply based on the fact that they played too much.  Ranking in the top five in total tackles and in the bottom three in interceptions simply tells the narrative of a sorry offense. 

While the defense is not totally excused for their 2009 production, it’s worth noting that even a simple improvement in overall time of possession could prove incredibly beneficial for the overall team.

A competent offense leads to a better-rested defense, while an offense that occasionally takes an early lead could lead to a dramatically improved and sometimes dangerous defense.

Or, in other words – for the 2010 Browns to improve, they have to play as a team.

And yes, this means that it’s time for my first 2010 Theory.  Here it is:  As the Offense Goes, So Goes the Defense.