Written by Dave Kolonich

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More vicious than a T.J. Ward forearm shiver, I return after another sensational parade of pretend gambling….only this time it’s for real.  The pretend part, at least.  Now standing an incredible 198-3 against all types of spreads, I have bankrupted Vegas and now taken its business offshore.

Or something like that….let’s go to the book.

Fool’s Gamble

Kansas City (+7) over Indianapolis

Dallas (-7) over Tennessee

So here are my revised 2010 NFL gambling rules….along with the inherent reason why I don’t actually gamble with real money.

1.  Always bet on the Colts – except during the times when they play within their division. 

2.  Only take Dallas every other week.  If they aren’t the essence of an 8-8 team, then I have learned nothing from some 25 years of watching the NFL.

3.  No matter what, Tennessee will usually either win or lose by no more than a touchdown.

4.  Here’s something to take to heart….the Browns came pretty close to beating what is now the league’s lone unbeaten team.

5.  Seriously….the Chiefs are the only unbeaten team left?  There goes Mercury Morris’ TV time.

Ugliest Line of the Week

Jacksonville over Buffalo (No Line)

Have you ever seen a more brutal NFL matchup?  Vegas just collectively gave up on this one….and I don’t blame them at all.  Games like these make me feel a little better about being a Browns fan.

Speaking of which, I was delighted by this….

Cold Hard Football Facts – Power Rankings

25. CLEVELAND (1-3)
Last week: 23-20 win vs. Cincinnati
The Cold, Hard Football Facts: Is there any question that the Browns would win the NFC West?

Think about it….at least our Decembers would be interesting.  In fact, how about creating a whole new division to increase our odds?  Just imagine the following:

AFC West-ish

Cleveland

Buffalo

Jacksonville

Oakland

Then perhaps a “Championship Game” with the winner of the NFC West?  Why should our Browns continue to be punished based on simple geography?

Vegas Best/If I Wasn’t Such a Wuss

New Orleans (-6) over Arizona

Oakland (+6) over San Diego

NY Jets (-4) over Minnesota

Detroit (-3) over St. Louis

Either Vegas knows something about the Saints that the rest of us don’t, or they are just begging for some action – probably in order to bump that line up to 10.  After all, the Saints are still really good and the DA era in Arizona has already ended.

Wait a minute – did I just answer my own question?

As for the rest, Oakland is prime to cover a 6 point spread against the still soft Chargers, while Detroit can easily outscore the Rams.  And Randy Moss or no Randy Moss, the Vikings still feature a broken down offensive line and a QB who is not healthy enough to compete at a top level.

Toss Up of the Week

Windhorst (-30) over Papa Bear

Can you only imagine the tension around the PD offices when Windhorst announced he was leaving for Miami?  Or how about the rage Papa Bear showed when he realized that Braylon was no LeBron?

Guest Lock of the Week – General Stonewall Jackson

“Who could not conquer with such troops as these?”

The problem with asking dead Civil War Generals for their picks is that they have virtually no context regarding the contemporary NFL.  I’ll just assume he’s taking a shot at Eric Wright.

Ugliest Line of the Week 2

Carolina (-1) over Chicago

Here’s something for the portion of Browns Nation who are upset regarding Jake Delhomme’s possible return to the starting lineup.  It could be worse….much worse….like Todd Collins and Jimmy Clausen worse.

The Rest of the Rest

Denver (+7) over Baltimore

Cincinnati (+6 1/2) over Tampa

Green Bay (-2 1/2) over Washington

Houston (-3) over NY Giants

San Francisco (-3) over Philadelphia

Even after four games, there are still about a dozen teams that most of us have no clue about. 

1.  I’m not a big Denver fan, but they play close games – and the Ravens have yet to put together two consecutive solid wins. 

2.  Cincinnati tends to play better at home and the law of 8-8 teams suggests they will beat the Bucs. 

3.  Green Bay and Houston are still wobbly at times, but are much better than a field goal spread. 

4.  Finally, this could be the week that the 49ers get untracked….at least until they remember that they are led by a JV coach and CFL QB.

Gambler of the Week

Jim Mora

Also worthy of consideration was Mora staking his coaching career to Michael Vick.  But let’s give Mora a pass.  After all, the following was pretty much epic….

Jim Mora Blows Up Doug Gottlieb

Guest Lock of the Week 2 – General Stonewall Jackson

“Once you get them running, you stay on top of them, and that way a small force can beat a large one every time.”

No wonder this guy lost the war.

Fantasy of the Week

You may know Carson Palmer as the chronically injured QB of a 2-2 Bengals team – one that just lost to the Browns last week.  However, did you know that according to most Fantasy Football nerds, he is also having an unbelievable fake 2010?  Consider the following:

34-50, 345 Yards, 2 TD, 1 INT

25-36, 371 Yards, 2 TD, 0 INT

Unfortunately for Palmer (in reality), his Bengals didn’t win either of these games.  But if you’re some knuckle-dragging fratboy who wouldn’t know the difference, he’s basically the MVP of your fantasy league. 

Only Pick That Matters

You know what to do.