Written by Dave Kolonich

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More lethal than Ben Roethlisberger sneaking into an all-girls prep school, Dave Kolonich returns after another fake gambling crusade….only this time we’re playing with house money.  Boasting an unprecedented 384-2 mark against the spread, Dave has essentially stolen the panties out of Vegas’ collective nightstand.

But I digress…..let’s go to the book. 

Fool’s Gamble

Washington  (+3) over Indianapolis

Seattle  (+7) over Chicago

So after five weeks of the NFL season, we know these two truths:

1.  Seattle is a division leader.

2.  Washington is a division leader.

And for good measure, let’s throw in another:

1.  Neither team is very good.

I would never remotely consider picking the Seahawks unless they are playing a team who just traveled 16 hours across the country.  As for the Redskins, is there an uglier team in the league?

Ugliest Line of the Week

Tennessee (-3) over Jacksonville

Speaking of ugly….For about the fourth consecutive year, I have to again go on the record and state that I absolutely have no clue regarding any AFC South team.  Last year, the Colts looked fragile, then went to the Super Bowl.  The year before that, the Titans were the best team in the conference.  Jacksonville is basically replaying every moment from their 2009 campaign, while the Texans remain the league’s biggest tease.

Or in other words – just stay away.

Vegas Best/If I Wasn’t Such a Wuss

San Diego (-8 1/2) over St. Louis

Houston (-4 1/2) over Kansas City

Miami over Green Bay (No Line)

New Orleans  (-4 1/2) over Tampa Bay

I’m calling it – this will be a weekend of redemption around the league.  If Pete Rozelle’s dying wish wasn’t already apparent – just think about the likes of the Chargers, Texans, Dolphins and Saints actually losing two straight games. 

Vegas Best/If I Wasn’t Such a Wuss 2 

Baltimore (+3) over New England

Atlanta (+3) over Philadelphia

Please note that I am still not ready to fully endorse Baltimore as an elite team.  Their offense is far too inconsistent for such an honor to be bestowed upon them.  And sorry, but beating a Charlie Batch-led Steelers team doesn’t do much for me.

As for the Eagles and second coming of Kevin Kolb, let’s just say that the national media loves a good storyline.  Also, maybe that Jerome Harrison trade could have been a lot worse.

Guest Lock of the Week – Ben Roethlisberger

“I like being the hunted, rather than the hunted.”

Editor’s Note – Ben must have thought this site was devoted to Relationship Advice.

Surprise of the Week

Denver (+3) over NY Jets

Call it a feeling, but this is what cliched football morons would call a “trap game” for the Jets.  So, instead of citing such a phrase, I’m thinking that the Jets will run out of gas in Mile High.

Toss Up of the Week

Bell over Harrison (No Line)

Really, Tom Heckert?  You couldn’t have squeezed even a sixth-round pick out of your former bosses? 

Ugliest Line of the Week 2

Pretty much the yard line where the 2010 Browns begin any offensive drive.  Have you ever seen a Browns’ team start with consistently worse field position?

The Rest of the Rest

Detroit  (+10) over NY Giants

Oakland (+7) over San Francisco

Dallas over Minnesota (No Line)

I truly hate all of these games from strictly a picks standpoint.  Part of me can see the Giants channel their inner .500 team and get tore up by the Lions’ passing attack.  But then again, Detroit on the road?  As for the Bay Area clash, if you combined these two rosters, the resulting team would still be an underdog most weeks.  As for the Cowboys-Vikings, I’m rooting for a loss by both teams – just to clear up next year’s Prime Time schedule.

Gambler of the Week

Rafael Septien

In honor of our Guest Lock celebrity of the week….if you know what I mean.

Guest Lock of the Week 2 – Ben Roethlisberger

“Though I have committed no crime, I regret that I have fallen short of the values instilled in me by my family.”

Well, all a matter of semantics, I guess.  Of course I’m referring to Big Ben not actually making any picks for us this week.

Fantasy of the Week

In just two games combined this season, Phillip Rivers has thrown for an amazing 886 yards.

Now guess how many team wins the Chargers had during those two games?

Only Pick That Matters

Let’s not circle the wagons just yet.