Well, the 2011 NFL draft is in the books allowing some of us to get some sleep and check in on the kids. I am one of those sick individuals who can barely sleep during the days leading up to and during the draft because anticipation and adrenaline have me wired like a snot-nose waiting on Christmas.
Let’s put a stamp on the Feeling a Draft series by giving a recap of the draft picks made on the final day, evaluate the execution of the draft, look at the division rivals early picks, and drop some names that I like who didn’t get picked in the draft and could get a shot as an undrafted free agent whenever the lockout is lifted. Let’s first get in some thoughts on the Day 3 picks, and how they could affect the Browns NFL Odds at success in 2011.
The Picks
If you have been following the series you all ready have the breakdown of the Day 1 and Day 2 players:
Onto Day 3:
Jordan Cameron (6-5¼ 254lbs) TE USC 4th Round
Cameron was the first pick the Browns made and he was the top ranked player on their board going into the final day of the draft. Many people were caught off guard by the pick for two reasons:
1. Because TE isn’t a glaring need; and
2. Jordan only played the TE position for one year after starting his career at USC as a WR.
Jordan transferred to USC in 2008 after originally getting a scholarship to play basketball at BYU. He played sparingly at WR in his first two years then he switched his position to TE and played in all 12 games recording 16 catches for 126 yards and 1 TD.
Athletic ability and potential are the reasons why the Browns picked him in the 4th round even though he has limited production and experience at the position. Jordan’s athleticism was on full display at the scouting combine where he finished in the top 5 in every category for the TE position and took first place in 3 of the events. He ran a 4.58 40yd dash, had a 37.5in vertical, and ran a blazing 6.82sec 3 cone drill, which was tops for TE’s at the combine. The guy is an elite athlete with the potential to pay immediate dividends in the red zone. When the ball is in the air he attacks it as if it were an alley-oop and if you have seen the famous Youtube clip you know he dunk the basketball.
His production is low but sometimes when you play TE and WR the production level has nothing to do with your route running skills or your hands. Production is often tied how many times you were targeted. I think this is one of those cases because he actually runs routes extremely well and catches everything.
He has a thinner build so his 6-5 frame could easily handle another 10 lbs which would get him up to 264lbs. That is a more ideal weight to handle the wear and tear of the NFL. With Ben Watson being 31 years old it is a good time to draft a player who can contribute in certain situations but can take some time to develop into an every down player. He has the potential to be a real playmaker in the NFL and I am really interested to see how much of that potential he can achieve.
Owen Marecic (6-0 ½ 248lbs) FB Stanford 4th Round
Owen Marecic was the only two way starter in major college football last year. He started at FB on offense and MLB on defense. He is obviously in tremendous condition in order play an entire game while playing two of the most physical and grueling positions football has to offer. I am not even going to bother with measureables on a player like him. He is the type of player who it truly doesn’t matter how fast the stop watch clocks him at or how many reps he can do in the weight room. He is a football player who simply finds a way to get it done, no matter what the particular task is. He will not ask questions or think twice when told to run through a wall and he is one of the most selfless and team oriented players you will ever find playing football. He doesn’t moan, groan, or give excuses, but rather just finds a way to get it done. He is a solid blocker with good hands and will be a demon on special teams for years to come, no matter what obstacles come his way.
Now, even though I like the player and respect the mentality he will bring to the team I still can’t get myself to buy into picking a FB in the 4th round when the team has other glaring needs. I am one of those people who believe you don’t ever get enough value from a FB to justify selecting him before the last two rounds of the draft. I understand that Lawrence Vickers is potentially a free agent but I won’t buy into the notion that this guy is more of a west coast offense FB than Vickers. The FBs in Pat Shurmur’s offense just don’t get enough touches to make that case. I looked up Shurmur’s offensive stats from the Rams and the FB on the roster, Mike Karney, had 6 carries for 12 yards and 5 catches for 14yards and no TDs. These by no means are stats that warrant a move that would jettison a Pro Bowl-caliber blocker from the team.
This pick actually made me examine the roster a little more and I discovered that we carried 4 TEs the entire year and only ended up dressing 3 on game days. Alex Smith was on the team the entire year but only dressed 3 times for games. So with that information in hand, added to the fact the Browns have already cut Robert Royal and Alex Smith is a FA, I now think it will not be a problem at all keeping both Marecic and Vickers on the roster. Marecic is versatile enough to provide depth as an emergency TE and LB, he probably fits in a H-Back role and he will most definitely be a core member of special teams while only making 4th round money. Also, with the switching of defenses from the 3-4 to the 4-3 you will lose LB roster spots which usually hurts your special teams cover units and Marecic will help there because of his LB lineage.
I also looked at the Rams roster from last year and saw that they had Chris Massey on the roster all year meaning they also essentially had more than one FB.
The value Marecic brings does not have to come at the expense of Hillis’s personal body guard, but only time will tell if the Marecic pick will cost Browns fans one of the most passionate players in recent memory.
Buster Skrine (5-9½ 186lbs) CB Chattanooga 5th Round
Skrine is blazing fast and has been clocked as low as 4.22 in the 40yard dash. He ran a 4.37 after a bad start at the combine and Heckert said they had him clocked as a “low 4.3 guy”. Buster is not only fast, he is quick also, running a 6.44sec 3 cone drill which was second best at any position. He is also incredibly powerful for someone his size which he put on display while pumping out 20 reps of 225lbs. To put that into prospective, the OT the Browns selected did 22 reps and weighs in a 317lbs. He is ideal to play inside against the quick fast players who play slot WR.
Buster Skrine is also one of the players I previewed in the Feeling a Draft series and I actually picked him as a stay away candidate. I previewed him because I like him, but I didn’t think the Browns would get much value from him if they re-signed Eric Wright. If the Browns re-sign Wright, Wright would become the third CB and Skrine would be the fourth. I imagine having him as a fourth CB doesn’t sound bad, but already having a pro bowl returner, the only way for him to get on the field would be as a gunner on coverage teams. However, at his size I think he will struggle to get past the double teams that gunners face.
At the end of the day I understand I am “crying” over what appears to be trivial, but it is another pick that I question whether the Browns obtained proper value. If Buster is capable of actually playing on the outside against the bigger WRs then my questions won’t prove to be valid because that would mean he could actually develop into a good player long term. I just don’t believe he can hang against the bigger WRs in the league. I can’t wait to see him in camp trying to battle a big WR like Greg Little because it will quickly determine if my concerns were valid.
I can’t shake the vision of Joe Haden picking a giant piece of grass out of Skrine’s helmet as he climbs out of the hole his body left after a Greg Little stiff arm and the subsequent face plant. Buster, please be mighty mouse and eliminate the nightmare. I hope the Browns didn’t pull an Al Davis with this pick.
Jason Pinkston (6-3 3/8 317lbs) OT Pitt 5th Round
Pinkston was a college LT that the Browns think can be both a tackle and guard in the NFL. Some experts thought he would move to the right side and become a RT in the NFL and he very well could end up there, but the Browns have stated he will start as a guard when he is able to report. Pinkston has a reputation of being a mauler in the run game which is why some evaluators had him listed as the second ranked guard available in the draft and it also falls right in line with the earlier selections the Browns made in the draft from a physical standpoint.
The Browns really like Pinkston and chose to trade both of their 6th round picks to Minnesota in order to select Pinkston in the 5th Round. Any time a team trades up in order to draft a specific player they have a very high opinion on what the player could be, so the Browns must figure that Pinkston can develop into a starting caliber guard in the NFL.
There are a few concerns I have with him and I hope he works out, but the main concern will be his conditioning and body maintenance. He has a build that looks more like a nose tackle than an offensive lineman and he also needs to gain more functional strength. He needs to stay committed to the strength and conditioning program in order for him to reach his full potential. He has the aggressive mindset you want in a guard which probably stems from his defensive tackle roots, but he needs to add strength and stamina in order to compete every down with the defensive lineman in the NFL.
Eric Hagg (6-1 3/8 209lbs) S Nebraska 7th Round
Hagg is the classic developmental type of player that you often see taken in the last round of the draft. He has good size and clocked a 4.55 in the 40 at his pro day which shows he has adequate speed to play the safety position. He is a player that plays hard and earns the respect of teammates because of it. That respect was evident when his team voted him Player of the Year.
Hagg upped his production during his senior season by recording 5 ints in 2010 after having a career total of 1 when the season started. His best asset is his coverage ability. Despite being a big safety Hagg was the nickel back for the sub defense which meant he covered TEs, RBs out of the backfield, and some WRs in the slot. He performed well in this role by using a combination of strength, speed, and quickness. He is not a “big” hitter but he is a sound reliable tackler who rarely misses an opportunity.
He has the potential to develop into a starter if he adjusts to the speed of the NFL game and shows the mental capacity needed. Worst case scenario in my opinion is that he becomes the new Nick Sorensen.
Draft Execution
When you talk about draft execution let me first talk about a point that I brought up after the first day of the draft regarding draft currency and how the Eagles and the Patriots are two of the best at acquiring it. They then use those acquired draft picks to get specific, targeted players in addition to providing themselves with plenty of draft day options.
If you thought I was selling lemons while promising sweet treats… then think again. Once again the Patriots and the Eagles were two of the most active teams in the draft, making a combined 7 trades involving 22 picks. That included both teams acquiring picks in next year’s draft with the Patriots netting extra 1st and 2nd round picks in the 2012 draft.
In the NFL draft picks are used the same as cash and teams who stock pile cash give themselves plenty of opportunities once the draft begins. Some teams choose to evaluate players, wait their turn, then pick from the list of players available, while other teams choose to target specific players then try to ensure they get those players.
In his second draft, Tom Heckert handled the room and the Browns handled themselves in the same calculated and cunning fashion that was shown during the first installment. Heckert had already proven during his time with the Eagles that he is the type of GM that creates a list of players he wants and will do what he can within reason to get those players.
All teams rank the board and have a wish list but he acquired extra picks in order to use those picks to purchase specific players. I love the aggressive style, whether he is right or wrong, he gets his guys and usually acquires more picks in the process.
Last year he used players on the Browns roster to acquire picks via trade. This year he used the leverage he had when a good team fell in love with a player and needed to move way up the board to get him. By making the trade with the Falcons Heckert ensured that he would have plenty of currency for future drafts as well as acquiring two additional picks in this year’s event.
When the Browns got the extra 2nd and 4th round pick this year it allowed Heckert to then take the two 6th round picks he already owned and trade them for a 5th round pick and select a specific player he had targeted.
Some say that since the Falcons used the pick by taking Julio Jones and the Browns drafted Greg Little with the Falcons pick in the 2nd round that it will be easier to determine who got the better end of the deal.
In reality, it will take much longer to determine that answer because the two picks the Browns have for next year will have to be used to evaluate the full value of the trade. That could get even more complicated if the Browns end up trading those picks.
The other factor to consider is the outcome in Atlanta. If they win the Super Bowl in the next few years, no matter what Jones’s stats are, most experts would say it worked out for Atlanta because the Super Bowl is always the goal.
Hopefully it works out like the Eli Manning/Philip Rivers Trade did for the Giants and the Chargers, with Manning ended up winning the Super Bowl and the Chargers getting quite a few dominant players from the trade.
It will be an interesting after a couple of years to examine the results. I have all the confidence that the extra first round pick next year will turn into something very valuable, no matter if the picks turn into one player or a combination of picks and players.
Evaluation
First, let’s talk about the grades you see the experts give for teams after the draft. Those grades are not meant to be an evaluation of simply how good the players you drafted will be in the NFL. They are a grade based on the overall talent of the players taken, the spot the player was picked, and team needs.
No one has a portal into the future so it is not a measure of what the players will be in the NFL. It is a measure of talent, mixed with value, sprinkled with need. Talent evaluation is not an exact science but it is not junk science either, it is somewhere in between.
Also consider that most draft grades factor in things like trades and picks acquired, so this year you will see a lot of “experts” give the Browns a decent grade just simply because of the value they picked up in the trade.
So once again look at the grade given as an evaluation of talent acquired, when they acquired it, and overall draft execution, not as a simple forecast of the players NFL career. You can give this draft a real grade in about three years.
I won’t asses a grade of any type butI will just state that in general I am on board with the players selected in this year’s draft, and from an execution standpoint, I am once again impressed with the Browns front office and approach.
If you remember in the first article of the series I talked about the goals of a GM when drafting players in the first 3 rounds. The GM is looking for players chosen in the first round to start, which should happen with Taylor, they are looking for the second round players to start at some point during the season, and they hope the third round players will contribute in year one and be able to start sometime during year two.
The Browns took two players in the 2nd round and Jabaal Sheard should start right away.I expect Little to start once he mentally understands the offense.
I don’t expect the rest of the players selected to start this year with the possible exception of Marecic if Vickers is let go. Cameron should contribute in the red-zone and could be used as a flex TE on offense, Skrine’s contribution will be determined by the decision to re-sign Eric Wright or not, and I anticipate Pinkston to get a “redshirt” year unless Shawn Lauvao moves to tackle.
I was surprised the Browns passed up some really explosive offensive players in the 4th and 5th round in order to pick a TE, FB, and CB but then I looked at the Rams roster from last year and realized that they didn’t have a “scatback” either. By bypassing a speed merchant WR the Browns confirmed their belief in Carlton Mitchell’s upside.
All in all Heckert showed great confidence going out and getting his “guys” and he stayed true to the philosophy of picking “big boys” and CBs early, which is what I expected after studying the Eagles draft tendencies from years pasts.
Division Rivals
We wouldn’t be true fans if we didn’t have an eye on the competition and wondered how our division rivals drafts went, so let’s examine what our division mates did with their early picks.
Ravens
The most talented player the Ravens took was CB Jimmy Smith. This kid had big red flags from a character stand point that and that is why they were able to pick him at the end of the 1st round. I hope he turns out to be the knucklehead some say he is because he is a ridiculously good football player. He is a lock-down corner if I have ever seen one. If he plays anything like he did in college we will hate this player with all our hearts. They also got a speed merchant in WR Torrey Smith and another playmaking WR in Tandon Doss.
Bengals
With their first two picks the Bengals picked up an immensely talented WR in A.J. Green and their future QB in Andy Dalton. Dalton finished second to our Colt McCoy in total college wins as a QB and was a four year starter at TCU. His game is much like McCoy’s because his high points are accuracy and heady play. No matter how good he becomes his stats will be boosted by the ultra talented pass receiver A.J. Green. Green is a big time talent and barring injury will be haunting the Browns for many years.
I looked up his stats from the games Florida (Joe Haden) and Georgia (Green) played, and in the two years they played each other, Green combined for a modest 8 catches and 140 yards with no TDs. I will take that all day from a player as talented as Green so keep it up Joe.
Steelers
The team in PA didn’t really do anything splashy because they have the offense pretty much set except for OL.
They did do the despicable and selected a beloved Buckeye in the 1st round in Cameron Heyward….sorry Cam you just fell in a black hole, I will acknowledge you if you can ever climb out.
Heyward will be a rotational guy at first until Aaron Smith or Brett Keisel get their yearly injuries.
They also selected an OT in Marcus Gilbert from Florida that could start for them. They selected CBs in the 3rd and 4th that could be nickel players, but other no skill players to worry about via the 2011 draft. Sadly, most of their offensive skill players are young except for the joker (Hines Ward).
Roster
Considering all the drafted players sign the Browns will still have a few holes to fill. I have said before I think they will resign Jayme Mitchell to play LDE and after that I think they will have to make a decision at safety.
If Abe Elam is not resigned then we will need one for sure. Honestly, with this lockout and not knowing anything more about which guys will be restricted free agents and which ones will be unrestricted, it is hard to say who they will resign or to pin point potential targets. We will save that conversation for another day.
So just considering the players drafted and not anticipating any free agent signings it looks like they would still need a DE and S. If they had to play a game with the draftees and not signing any free agents (including our own) I would say those are the two weakest spots.
Depth at all positions except TE and DT would also be an issue without considering free agents.
Undrafted Free Agents
Well, it is very hard to predict what free agents a team will be interested in but I have formulated a list of players that I like who will be available whenever the lockout is lifted.
Some of these players I have already previewed in the series and think they can make an NFL team. My favorites on the list are Jeron Johnson, Noel Devine, Jeff Maehl, Mark Herzlich, Devon Torrence, Jarreil King, and Ian Williams. I believe any of these guys could make the roster if given a shot and I honestly believe Jeron Johnson is a potential starter in the NFL.
There are some very interesting players that didn’t get drafted and quite a few guys I think can make a NFL roster given the chance and even a few I think could make our roster. Here is a list of some players I like at various positions.
QB- Pat Devlin, Scott Tolzein, Adam Weber, Taylor Potts
RB-Derrick Locke, Noel Devine, Nicholas Grisby, Craig Cooper
WR-Ricardo Lockette, Dane Sanzenbacher, Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, Jeff Maehl, Terrance Tolliver
OT- Jarriel King, Wille Smith, Adam Grant, Michael Smith
DE- Pierre Allen, Steven Friday, Justin Trattou, Dequin Evans, Eddie Jones
DT- Cedric Thorton, Ian Williams, Martin Parker, Adrian Taylor, Lawon Scott
LB- Mark Herzlich, Scott Lutrus, Nick Bellore, Jeff Tarpinian, Mario Addison, Josh Bynes
S- DeAndre McDaniel-LB, Deunta Williams, Joe Lefegod, Mana Silva, Will Hill, Jeron Johnson
CB- Kendirck Burney, Ryan Jones, Devon Torrence, Josh Gatlin, Kevin Rutland
Thanks
So now that the draft is completed and the series is over I would like to thank all those involved with The Cleveland Fan for their help in making the series possible, especially my friend and fellow draft junkie Brian McPeek.
I also would really like to thank all those who followed the series and invite anyone with questions or comments to email me. I look forward to the season, and be on the lookout for future writings as I plan to continue using this avenue to purge my mind of otherwise useless information and comments.
Now it’s on to hoping lottery balls spit out nice treats as our Cavs hope for two top 3 picks.