Written by Jason Askew

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Week 12,         Game 11

When/Where: Sunday 1:00pm Cincinnati, Ohio   Paul Brown Stadium

Opponent: Cincinnati Bengals               Current Spread: Browns +7

This week the 4-6 Cleveland Browns visit the 6-4 Cincinnati Bengals for a rematch of a week 1 matchup that featured the two division foes. In week one the Bengals walked out of Cleveland Browns Stadium with a 27-17 win and started their 2011 season on a good note.

The first game was controlled early by the Bengals who jumped out to a 13-0 lead only to see the young Browns charge back and take control before half and go into the locker room up by a point with a 14-13 lead.

The Browns maintained the lead until the 4^th quarter when the game was changed by a Cincinnati TD pass to rookie WR A.J. Green. The play was not a trick play but it was a change in tempo that created the opportunity. The Bengals moved to the line without using a huddle between plays and the young Browns were caught napping and never got lined up, leaving Green wide open down the sideline for a 41 yard pass play with 4:28 left to play.

The Browns were unable to score and the Bengals added a TD run with 1:49 on the clock that sealed the victory and started their 2011 season on a winning note.

Weather could be an issue in this interstate rivalry and, if so, the game could become a defensive battle as these two teams have the 5^th and 6^th ranked defenses in the NFL.

Let’s take a look inside the game as we try to figure out what to expect on Sunday.

Cincinnati Season Snapshot

So far this season this young Cincinnati team has played well. Many thought they would struggle because they start a rookie QB, but in the early part of the season they have surpassed everyone’s expectations and performed much better than anticipated.

Even though they are coming off losses in back to back weeks, the Bengals played division rivals really close and lost to the Ravens and Steelers by 7 points each.

The defense is 3^rd against the run and 6^th overall and first year QB Andy Dalton is having a solid season in his NFL debut. The offense is 12^th in the league in points scored and the rookie QB has 15 TDs on the year.

The Bengals have beaten the teams they were supposed to beat and nearly won against some of their better opponents. Here is what you should expect from them on Sunday:

Expectations on Gameday

Offense-  The Bengals offense has a much different feel at the is point in the season than it did when they first faced Cleveland. The days of them being a team who can only run the ball are long gone. They are not afraid to line up in multiple WR sets and fling the ball around. Cincinnati isn’t limiting rookie QB Andy Dalton to “managing” the game. They have no problem letting him win the game with his arm.

Cedric Benson is still the lead RB but they have actually been rotating in backup Bernard Scott every few series for a change of pace. They use a power blocking scheme in the running game and run some handoff plays that look like zone stretch plays, but they block them more like power toss plays off tackle. Benson has 634 yards on the season in nine games (not 10 because he served a one game suspension after their bye week as punishment for offseason behavior that the commissioner didn’t like).

When the Bengals put the ball in the air QB Andy Dalton has done a good job of spreading the ball around while still understanding that rookie WR A.J. Green needs more targets because he is a special talent.

Green missed the last game with a knee sprained but returned to practice this week and is expected to start the game on Sunday. He leads his team as well as all NFL rookies in receptions with 41 and TDs with 6. Dalton’s next two favorite targets are WR Jerome Simpson, who is second on the team in receptions, and TE Jermaine Gresham who is second on the team in TD receptions.

The Bengals use multiple WR formations quite a bit and will overload certain sides of the field when they do. Most of the time they overload on the opposite side of A.J. Green so they can force man to man coverage where Green has the advantage most of the time.

As far as a game plan for Sunday’s game expect the Bengals to try and exploit the Browns 29^th ranked run defense and run the ball a lot. When they throw you can expect them to pick on Browns CB Sheldon Brown like they did in the first matchup, and also look for TE Jermaine Gresham to receive a good amount of targets. I expect Cleveland to use CB Joe Haden on A.J. Green so the rookie WR may not get as many targets as he has been used to, but the Bengals have the weapons to still be effective in the passing game.

Defense-  When the Bengals are on defense expect them to continue running the aggressive 4-3 style defense that has earned them a top 10 ranking and has been the backbone of their 6 wins on the season.

The Bengals are a young, aggressive defense that moves side to side with some of the best defenses in the NFL. The defensive line is both stout and agile which is a rare combination for a defense to have. DTs Domata Peko and Geno Atkins are the anchors up front and set the tone. Peko is really stout and physical and Atkins is extremely disruptive. Atkins is a player that needs to be accounted for at all times because he can be seen making plays in the backfield on a regular basis.

The Bengals defense doesn’t use a ton of stunts up front but they send their LBs on blitzes a lot. They can be seen on most pass plays bringing at least one LB, and sometimes two, which leaves the intermediate passing game open occasionally. But if they don’t get blocked you usually don’t have time to wait for the throw so you better have your hot reads set up.

The LB core is really young and fast so most teams have stopped trying to use running plays that stretch the defense side to side because these LBs usually blow those plays up.

The secondary is solid on the edges but gives up plays in the middle of the field. The safeties and CB Nate Clements can get nosey at times so teams have had some success getting over the top plays.

As far as a game plan, expect the Bengals to use many of the same pressure packages they used during the first game. The Browns are still struggling to make teams pay for blitzing so I anticipate the same treatment in the rematch. I also expect pro bowl CB Leon Hall to play the majority of snaps on Cleveland rookie Greg Little. I also think the Bengals will drop one of their safeties in the box most of the day and force Colt McCoy to beat them.

Browns Season Snapshot

The Cleveland Browns season has been filled with mixed results. Their record so far is 4-6 but they have yet to beat a team with a winning record. The offense has struggled to put up points and really struggled to create big plays.

The defense has played much better than expected as a group but they have been inconsistent against the run. They rank 29^th in rushing defense but lead the league in passing defense.

First year head coach Pat Shurmur has also struggled to find his way at times, making some key tactical errors along the way, and, as offensive coordinator, he hasn’t managed to get the offense firing on all cylinders either. The team has also been dealing with the turmoil created by RB Peyton Hillis missing most of the season because of injury and spending the time he has been in pads answering questions about his contract situation.

Cleveland is entering the game on a high note after winning at home last week against the Jacksonville Jaguars after the defense made a late game stand to ensure the win. They will look to keep the positive momentum going this week so let’s take a peek into what we might see on Sunday:

Expectations on Gameday

Defense- The Browns defense comes into the game ranked 5^th in the league allowing 305 yards a game. They also lead the league in passing yards allowed giving up only 166 yards a contest. Defensive coordinator Dick Jauron uses a base 4-3 scheme that emphasizes fundamentals and not gimmicks.

The defense is led by MLB D’Qwell Jackson who is the team’s leading tackler. The front four relies on active and stout DTs Ahytba Rubin and rookie Phil Taylor. The tackles are hard to move and are active against the pass, combining for 7 sacks on the season.

The best overall player on the defense is second year CB Joe Haden who leads the NFL in passes defended. Although he hasn’t managed an interception after snagging 6 his rookie year, the 2^nd year pro gets his hands on more passes than anyone in the league.

The Browns have proven at this point in the year that you can expect the same type of solid play from them on most Sundays. They will rely on their front 4 to get pressure and play solid pass defense behind them. Once the offense gets used to vanilla defenses they will sprinkle in some LB pressures and will even occasionally run some zone blitz schemes with the RDE dropping into coverage.

You can look for the Browns to use safety Usama Young around the line of scrimmage to aide in stopping the run and rely on the best pass defense in the league to ensure rookie QB Andy Dalton doesn’t have a field day.

Offense-  Cleveland’s offense may get a jolt on Sunday because starting RB Peyton Hillis hasn’t played in over a month and backup Montario Hardesty has also missed the last 3 games due to injury. Both players have a chance of playing this week and if the running game gets a boost from their return the entire offense should benefit because of it.

If neither RB can play expect to see more of RB Chris Ogbonnaya, who has filled in for them and is coming off of a 115 yard performance against the Jaguars. Ogbonnaya has decent quickness and can break a few tackles but lacks in speed so the offense isn’t as explosive with him in the game.

The Browns start 2^nd year player Colt McCoy at QB and he has had some growing pains in his first year in head coach Pat Shurmur’s offense. McCoy has struggled with accuracy issues on shorter throw and timing issues when attempting deeper throws. He has gotten better with his accuracy as of late and will look to build upon that on Sunday.

When he puts the ball in the air his primary target is rookie WR Greg Little who leads the team in receptions and yards but has struggled to find the endzone and has been held without a TD this year. Cleveland’s team leader in TD receptions is all pro returner Josh Cribbs and TE Ben Watson is second on the team in receptions.

On Sunday I would expect Cleveland to try and establish the running game that they have found in recent weeks and use play action passes to exploit the Bengals safeties because they tend to get be aggressive in run support.

You can also look for Cleveland to continue some of the spread and empty formations that they have incorporated the last few weeks. If weather permits I also expect them to use some no huddle and sugar huddles to speed up the tempo and isolate the Bengals personnel.

Key Matchups

*Browns Guards vs. DT Geno Atkins- The Browns have 2 first year starters at guard who have both struggled at times during the season. They are both playing their best football right now but Atkins will be a huge test for both. The Bengals DT leads the team in sacks and jumps off the tape when you study the Bengals. He is really active and disruptive so if the Browns want any success on offense it is imperative that they find and block Atkins.

*S Usama Young vs. RB Cedric Benson- In the first matchup Benson pounded the Browns for 125 yards. If the Browns are going to shut Benson down safety Usama Young will have to be a force against the run.

*WR Greg Little vs. Bengals LBs- I know you are probably think this is a typo but it is not. The Browns use Little a lot in the slot and he often times runs short routes against LBs and usually wins easily. The Bengals OLBs are much faster than your average LBs. If Little doesn’t win these battles, Cleveland will miss on a lot of third down plays and the passing game will struggle.

*LDE Jabaal Sheard vs. RT Andre Smith- In game 1 the rookie Sheard played on the right side and was stuck going up against a much better LT than RT Andre Smith. If the Browns want to generate a pass rush I am anticipating this is where it will have to come, from so Sheard needs to win the majority of these battles on passing downs.

*DC Dick Jauron vs. OC Jay Gruden- I expect Dick Jauron will be even better in the second matchup now that Gruden has 10 games of film to study. Coach Jauron has done a wonderful job studying opponents and formulating game plans to stop them so I am interested to see how he handles the improved Bengals offense.

Prediction

I expect this divisional game to be much like the first one. If weather is an issue like some say it will be then the young QBs may get bailed out. But if weather isn’t a factor I know the two Texas natives that start at QB for these teams will be competing extra hard against one another. They have played each other in high school, college, and the pros so they have a heated rivalry. The win in week one was Andy Dalton’s first time beating Colt McCoy and I know it is bugging Colt.

Unfortunately for McCoy I don’t think he gets his revenge on Sunday. The Browns offense is not as good as the Bengals’ and the defenses are close but opposite. The Browns excel against the pass and are inconsistent against the run while the Bengals are good against the run but can struggle in the passing game.

The Browns are not equipped offensively to exploit the Bengals defensive deficiencies but Cincinnati’s offense is perfectly equipped to exploit Cleveland’s weakness. I think the Browns will put up a valiant fight but come away from Sunday 0-2 in the division and get swept by the Bengals.

Well Browns fans, enjoy the game and, as usual when I pick the Browns to lose, I hope I don’t have a clue….Go Browns!