Written by Jerry Roche

---

Can a general manager really be as astute as the Browns’ Tom Heckert has been over the past 2-1/2 years? Can he be as accurate? Can he possibly hope to draft as well, without selling his soul to the devil? We think we have stumbled upon the reason for his success. Can you say "artificial intelligence"?

January 12, 2010

Like a kid on Christmas morning, the just-named GM unwraps a brand-new CD-ROM and downloads its contents to his laptop. “Team Building, NFL Edition” appears on the screen.

July 12, 2012

Heckert turns on his computer and opens the program that has served him so well. A familiar little image of a business executive pops up, peering at Heckert from his side of the screen, hands on hips. The computer speaks: “Hello, Tom. What can I do for you today?”

Heckert types: SUPPLEMENTAL DRAFT, 2012, into a dialog box.
The words PRIMARY NEEDS: WR, LB, LB, FS, type themselves under the query, in red letters.
Heckert types: JOSH GORDON, WR?
COMPETITION: WASHINGTON, BUFFALO, DALLAS. LIKELY BID: 3RD ROUND.
Heckert types: BID 2ND ROUND?
AFFIRMATIVE.
Heckert types: ARE YOU SURE?
The animated little man starts shaking his index figure at Heckert, and the computer speaks: “Just do it, Tom.”

Beaming, Heckert opens his email program.

Today

If Heckert could carry his performance in the three most recent college drafts to the blackjack tables at the Shoe, he'd soon be the richest man in Cleveland. Whereas only one-and-a-half starters (Mohamed Massaquoi is the half) remain from the dismal 2009 draft class, the 2010 draft has yielded three-and-a-half starters (Colt McCoy is the half) and the 2011 draft an additional five. The 2012 draft promises, absolute minimum, at least four new starters right off the bat and perhaps more by season’s end.

For comparison’s sake, let me remind you of the 2009 draft choices (before Heckert arrived on the scene): C Alex Smith, WR Massaquoi, Brian Robiskie, David Veikune, LB Kaluka Maliava, Don Carey, Coye Francies and James Davis. That’s a yes, two maybes, and five not-on-your-lifers — not a success ratio that bespeaks "Lombardi Trophy."

What has escaped the notice of many impatient fans is that — thanks to Heckert’s somewhat surprising success — the Browns now have an excellent core of young players to build upon; players who can grow and prosper together. If this year’s and next year’s choices pan out as well as the previous three (still a big “if”), the Brownies will be a solid, playoff-competitive team for years and years to come, in the same mold as Pittsburgh and, to a lesser extent, Baltimore.

Next year’s draft will be the fourth under Heckert and club president Mike Holmgren, who wisely claimed from the very beginning that they had a five-year “rebuilding” plan based almost solely on the college draft rather than on trades and free-agent signings. We may be too optimistic here, but it appears that their plan is progressing entirely on schedule, despite moans and groans from many impatient fans who are sick of losing 10 to 12 games a year and want instant gratification via a playoff appearance NOW.

Meanwhile, almost under the radar (if anything relative to the annual NFL draft can be under the radar any more), Heckert has nabbed 12 starters in three drafts — 14 if you count McCoy and Massaquoi, who were starters in 2011 but won’t be in 2012. That's projecting five new starters out of the 2012 draft, including WR Josh Gordon from the supplemental draft.

Here are all the guys that Heckert has drafted who will probably start in September:

OFFENSE (Year drafted, round-pick no.)
OL Jason Pinkston (2011, 5-150)
OL Shawn Lauvao (2010, 3-92)
OL Mitchell Schwartz (2012, 2-37)
WR Greg Little (2011, 2-59)
WR Josh Gordon (2012, supplemental)
QB Brandon Weeden (2012, 1-22)
RB Trent Richardson (2012, 1-3)
FB Owen Marecic (2011, 4-124)
DEFENSE
DT John Hughes (2012, 3-87)
DT Phil Taylor (2011, 1-21)
DE Jabaal Sheard (2011, 2-37)
CB Joe Haden (2010, 1-7)
SS T.J. Ward (2010, 2-38)

Just two players that Heckert drafted over the course of the last three years — Larry Asante (fifth-rounder in 2010) and Clifton Geathers (sixth-rounder in 2010) — are no longer with the team. Biggest disappointments so far have been 2010 second-round pick Montario Hardesty (injury prone in college who became injury prone in the pros) and Marecic (a fullback when the Browns already had a serviceable fullback on the roster, Lawrence Vickers). Beyond those two, Heckert didn’t miss on ANY first- through fourth-round picks. And he might still hit it big with some later-round 2011 picks like Pinkston, Buster Skrine and Eric Haag.

Heckert has not escaped some criticism. He’s been susceptible to the “stretch” pick, for which he’s been excoriated by local fans and the national media. Cases in point: Hardesty, Taylor, Richardson, Weeden, Hughes and even Gordon. But so far, the only valid such criticism is in the choice of Hardesty.

Finally, as training camp opens this summer, there appears to be quite a bit of potential and athletic ability among the non-starters. These are former draftees who could develop into starters or be offered in trade for other needs: WRs Carlton Mitchell and Travis Benjamin, TE Jordan Cameron, DBs Skrine and Haag, LBs James-Michael Johnson and Emmanuel Acho, OL Ryan Miller and DL Billy Winn. Even if none of them ever start a game, it's entirely possible that they could become valuable as reserves — and a strong bench is a luxury that the team has not had since its return in 1999.

Sometime in the near future

HELLO, COMPUTER.
HELLO, TOM. ARE YOU ENJOYING THE VINCE LOMBARDI TROPHY?
IMMENSELY.