Written by Jerry Roche

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Got your attention, didn’t I? No, I don’t believe the Browns will go winless in 2012. Not even close. I stuck that headline on there to make a point, which we’ll now get to…

The opening of NFL training camps signals the media onslaught of predictions for the coming season—very few (if any) of which will prove to be accurate. But they sure are fun to read or listen to, and that’s what they’re there for.

The “experts” closely look at team histories, personnel (including the draft), schedules and intangibles. They interview scores of players and coaches. They weigh the various factors for relevance, and then they spend hours and hours trying to analyze them. And, it usually turns out, their conclusions aren’t any better than yours or mine, no matter how much publicity they receive.

Take it from someone who has published scores of sports predictions over the past decades: they are almost as much a shot in the dark as the average fan’s. Indeed, most of the so-called “expert” prognosticators don’t even care if they’re right or not. All they’re looking for are readers or viewers or hits. All they want to do is make national headlines—although it’s a plus to their personal résumés if they occasionally hit the nail on the head.

“Bleacherreport.com: Four or Fewer Wins for Browns”
“5Dimes Puts Browns’ Over-Under at 5.5 Wins”
“Browns AFC Champs? 1 in 75, Says Bovada”
“CBS Sports Insider Predicts One Win for Browns”
“We’re Leaning Toward the Under: docsports.com, betdis.com”
“Browns to Go 2-14”

It amazes me when diehard local fans see headlines like those and go postal. Hopefully, most will realize that they're all crapola. What do these so-called “experts” know about the upcoming season that we don’t know? Answer: Not much. You might get similar opinions from some of the naysayers on theclevelandfan.com message boards. Or you might not.

Oh, the so-called “experts” have access to NFL players and front-office personnel, many on a daily basis. So some fans would say that the headlines reflect informed opinions. I don’t. Those guys, in past seasons, have been wrong much more often than they’ve been right.

Here’s a good example.

In February, 2011, ESPN asked their 10 main NFL “experts” to pick the winner of Super Bowl XLVI. These are people that the whole nation turns to for information on NFL goings-on. What teams did they pick? Five—including Michael Wilbon—picked the Steelers. Five—including Rick Reilly—picked the Packers. Additionally, all 14 ESPN.com writers and all 19 ESPN analysts—including Chris Berman, Steve Young and Colin Cowherd—picked either the Steelers or Packers. And what happened? Neither team even participated in the Super Bowl.

Even at NFL.com, the league’s own Website, none of seven “experts” predicted the Giants to win last February’s Super Bowl. For the record, here are their choices: Packers, Saints, Jets, Saints, Packers, Saints, Saints.

Making predictions is an exercise in futility, especially in a sport as volatile and violent as the NFL. Nobody could’ve predicted that Man of Steel(er) Ben Rothlisberger would suffer a badly sprained ankle as the playoffs approached. Nobody could’ve predicted that All-Pro quarterback Aaron Rodgers would be bamboozled by the New York Giants’ pass rush in the NFC Championship. Nobody.

With few exceptions, published prognostications are almost forgotten once the real season begins. And unless the fortune-tellers themselves remind us (in the unusual event that they somehow guessed right), they will be completely forgotten by the end of the season...and next year’s prophecies will begin.

So let me repeat a little secret: Those “expert” opinions mean just about as much as that of “Shuzzbutt” or any other mythical strawman contributor to a wide range of Web comment sections and message boards.

We all have our own personal predictions about how the Browns will do this coming season. I do, too. None of us will be proven right or wrong until the final gun of the final game, and that’s as it should be. As the old saying goes, that’s why they play the games.

In the end, then, what the so-called “experts” are doing is nothing more than drawing the eyes of gullible fans to their publications or programs or Websites. It’s okay to read them or listen to them and have fun with them. Laugh at them, if you like; it’s probably good therapy, and it might even serve to stoke interest in your home team. But if you put more stock in “expert” opinions than you believe in your own heart, you’re whistling in the dark.