Written by Mike Piper

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He made a mockery of the Vegas lines this season here on The Cleveland Fan, picking winners at just under a 70% clip, posting just one losing week (2-3 record) this entire season.  He's put more bookmakers out of business than the FBI.  He's Lead Pipe.  To quote Joe Tait, "it's baaaaaasketball time", and The Lead Man has a bevy of tips and tricks for our readers this morning on how to stay profitable through the dog days of the gambling year.

As Joe Tait would say, "It's basketball time at the Leadquarters." 

Yes players, the days of regular season college football are over. The baseball post season seems in the distant past. Here at the Leadquarters we like to call these the dog days of the gambling year, where the sports that can be beat are now replaced by those that are very tough to obtain an edge. Lead mentioned last week that the coming months are a time to tread lightly, and this is very true, however, from time to time you may find some value. This week Lead is going to show you how to find value in the 2007-08 basketball seasons. 

Many consider Lead to be the Kobe Bryant of basketball wagering. This simply isn't true. When have you seen Lead chucking it at every opportunity, never passing up a shot? When have you witnessed Lead unhappy with a fellow handicapper's success? What evidence do you have that Lead raped hotel clerks or is otherwise morally corrupt? Does Mrs. Lead have The Lead Man on the short leash? Hardly. No players, Lead is the Lebron James of hoops betting. When he enters the arena he makes all those around him better. He will put players on his back and "Lead" them to victory. And most importantly, when he is put in a tough situation in which he has no advantage, he will make the pass. This unselfishness is especially important this time of year. Sure Lead is going to have his share of slam dunks and triple doubles this winter, (As evidenced by last weeks Nevada and Chargers easy covers) but it's the shots he passes up in order to set up a better opportunity that makes him a winner. 

It is with this knowledge that people contact the Leadquarters looking for tips on how to bury their bookie. Well, these players have called the right place, for the Leadquarters has a subsidiary that takes care of all basketball queries, a place that combines the Leadquarters with the hardwood, a place that will chill every God fearing bookie right to his very core when he hears these four words: 

"Gentleman, welcome to Leadwood." 

As you could imagine, in a rough place like Leadwood there are rules that must be followed. Rule #1 - Don't bet NBA sides. The lines are just too tough to beat. Everyone knows the players; everyone is up to date on injuries and roster status. And by the way, to the thousands who have told Lead about the team playing the second game of a back to back, this isn't insider knowledge. Trust Lead, that fact has been accounted for in that day's opening line. When you consider all factors it's pretty clear you aren't going to beat these lines. There is also a reason you won't see a pro capper claiming NBA sides to be his specialty - they can't show a winning record. 

Understand players that the NBA regular season doesn't get nearly as much recreational bettor money. Squares will steam an NFL line irrationally almost weekly. You get no such breaks in the NBA regular season. Now, come playoff time this will change. Square money comes a calling and a sharp wagerer such as the Lead Man can profit by answering the call. 

If you are compelled to wager during the NBA regular season, bet the totals. If you are going to put forth the time and effort into the NBA, concentrate on an area that can be exploited. How does the Leadquarters know for a fact that NBA totals can be beaten? Because Las Vegas told us so. A few years back Vegas was beaten up so badly on totals they started charging -120 instead of the customary -110. They switched back as a result of public outcry. However, the point to take out of that is they were indeed being defeated or they would not have increased the vig. Secondly, you will see a large line movement virtually every day with NBA totals. If the lines were sharp this would not be the case. Lead likes to focus on point guards and key bench contributors. For example, if Michael Redd is out for the Bucks the line will be immediately adjusted accordingly. This large line movement will then affect the total. But if a guy like Maurice Williams is out there is a chance that the slighter line movement fails to budge the total by the proper amount. Know your point guards and lesser known impact players. 

NBA action is FANtastic, but college hoops can be GAMtastic. There are 300 division one teams. The lines makers are not going to get all the lines correct. Focus on an "under the radar" college conference and get to work. You would be surprised how many times key players moving in and out of the lineup does NOT affect the line, when similar injuries would certainly move the line in a high profile game. Also, if your book allows second-half wagering, small conference totals many times fail to be adjusted in a timely fashion. 

Lastly, get a good number. This is much more important in hoops than in football. Games are going to land on the number every night, simply because every number is "live." Football games rarely land on 5 for example; basketball games hit virtually every number. Getting that extra ½ or full point can make all the difference. 

So to summarize; 

• Don't wager NBA sides.
• Do bet NBA playoffs
• Do bet NBA totals
• Do bet small conference college hoops
• Don't accept just any number

In Leadwood every "Do" is done with the appropriate research so as to reveal an advantage. When Lead meets an opponent on Main Street in the middle of town, he ain't holding a cap gun pardner.