Written by Mike Piper

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It's bracket week baby.  Regardless of whether you play one $5 entry or fill out 20 and dole out hundreds of dollars in entry fees like me ... we're all hunkering down this week and filling out our brackets for March Madness.  And no Bracket Week would be complete without some words of wisdom from TCF resident handicapper Lead Pipe.  This football season, he elevated all of our lifestyles by rattling off winning week after winning week.  And now ... he tells us how to win our bracket pools. Andy Williams does not live in Northeast Ohio, because if he did the Lead Man assures you he would deem this "The Most Wonderful Time of the Year." The snow is melting, the birds are coming back to roost, spring training is in full swing and most importantly, 48 college basketball tournament games are jammed into one long weekend. Yes players, March Madness is finally upon us. Time to break your cabin fever and get in on the action. This year, courtesy of the Lead Man, you will not only enjoy the games (and the accompanying "sick days" from work) but you will do so as a winner. You see players, Lead isn't interested in action, he's interested in WINNING action, and what follows are some of his most valuable tips on winning the annual office pool as well as winning straight-up tournament game wagers. 

First let's discuss that office pool. You know the one, the one in which the common theme has Jane from accounting taking down the prize after picking her bracket based on uniform colors. Well Lead can assure you one thing - at the offices of the Leadquarters, this is the exception rather than the rule. Why? Because Lead knows how to put himself in the winner's circle. We've seen it time and time again, football, entertainment, playoff baseball, it's the same old story. Jane from accounting ain't doing any winning at the ‘Quarters. She's doing two things and two things only; 

1. Crunching numbers
2. The Lead Man's bidding.

How does Lead continually win NCAA bracket pools at such an alarming rate? He does it by using methods that gain the advantage over other players - not necessarily by his keen handicapping ability. Allow Lead to make one thing clear. This is the most important bit of information in regard to an NCAA bracket contest. It is a bit of info we all know, but very few of us understand. That is, in a pool with 100 players, 8^{th place}, 28^{th place}, 68^{th place} and 100^{th place}, all pay the same - zilch. Lead's goal is never to do well, his goal is to win. More succinctly, Lead doesn't care about having a great record so much as he cares about having the best record. (All of the "Bracketologists" you see on television are not winning office pools. They will wind up being bogged down somewhere in the pack with all the other bracketologists, while someone else moves forward to claim the prize. Don't be one of the many bracketologists out there, be one of the few, like Lead, The Doctor of Cashology). 

It is with this in mind that we at the Leadquarters have established two overall goals; 

1. Pick teams most likely to win.
2. Separate yourself from the pack by selecting teams picked by fewer players.

Goal one is achieved in the routine fashion, by research and handicap. It is achieving goal number two that will give you the edge. Here are a few ways to help you in achieving this goal:   

• Betting lines are more accurate than seedings - Nobody, and Lead means nobody, knows more about these teams than the odds makers, and this includes the committee. Keep your eye on the #9 seed as a favorite over the eight, or even a 10 seed chalk. Also, if these teams are only a one or two point dog, there may be some value. Allow your dopey co-workers to concentrate only on the seedings while you cull from those really in the know.
  
  
•  Don't be misled by a team's straight up record - the record that is usually found on every bracket. Again, allow your co-workers to read that record. You should concentrate on the one number that matters; a team's record against the spread. This number is much more indicative of a team's ability. Show Lead a team that has a good record against the spread, and Lead will show you a team that has exceeded the expectations of the public and the odds makers (and therefore the committee) all season long.
  
  
• When prognosticating the later rounds, look at the future numbers. Let's say you've arrived at your third round and you have a match-up between a 5 seed and an 8 seed. Many will automatically take the fiver. You on the other hand see that Vegas has the 8 seed has almost the exact same odds to win the region. This is a perfect opportunity to separate yourself from the field and give your bracket value.

Remember players, the more players in the field the more value there is in separating yourself from the pack by selecting an extreme bracket. Again, the goal is to WIN, not to do well.

Lead's Bizzaro Upset Method

For those of you that wager games straight up, Lead would like to reveal a valuable trend. Lead isn't much of a trend guy, because many of the trends are derived from skewed stats. That being said, a trend that is on nearly a 25-year run certainly captures the Lead Man's attention. The trend is this; if there are an inordinate number of upsets in the first round, there are very few upsets in the second round. Conversely, if there are many upsets in the first round, it is rare to find upsets in the second.  

The average number of first round upsets since 1985 is about 8. So, if there would be 12 or so upsets in the first round, look for the Lead Man to be wagering the money line on the favorites in the second round. If there are only 3 or 4 upsets in the first round, Lead will go to the dogs in round 2. If the number of upsets is close to average, go UnLeaded. Remember players, Lead isn't into action at the expense of profit. Lead also recommends underdogs that really defend. 

There you have it players, your keys to March Madness success. Instead of Jane from accounting prancing around the office a winner, follow these tips and she'll be in her rightful place; she'll be holding the ladder as you cut down the nets. 

Good luck players!