Written by David Regimbal

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The BCeStimation is a weekly column that predicts which 10 teams will make it to the Orange Bowl, Sugar Bowl, Fiesta Bowl, Rose Bowl and National Championship game. 

I just want to throw this out there before we get started -- how terrifying would Michigan be if they had a decent defense? Notice that I didn't say "good" or "great" defense, but decent. Regardless of how you feel about the Wolverines competition so far this season, what Denard Robinson has been able to do with Rich Rod's offense is simply remarkable. If I could close my eyes and picture Michigan stopping any opposing offense from having their way, they would (begrudgingly) be a part of this article. Unfortunately for them, I can close my eyes and imagine an organized and well-coached pack of squirrels getting 200+ yards on the ground and at least 28 points, so there you have it. *Squirrels have great lateral movement and fantastic jukability, but lack "bruising power" and breakaway speed... yeah, I guess they're exactly like Appalachian State. 

Now to the picks -- there is quite a bit of movement in this week's BCeStimation. Let's jump in!

Orange Bowl: Miami vs. West Virginia

Why Miami? Because the Hurricanes have the most impressive resume of any team from the ACC. They were able to overcome some adversity (a 12 point loss to our Buckeyes) and finished their road trip by thumping Pittsburgh and beating one of the better teams in the ACC (Clemson). Jacory Harris continues his push for the coveted Indian-Giving-Quarterback-Trophy; an annual reward for the quarterback who gives his offensive coaches the most hope in any game by tossing multiple brilliant touchdown passes, then taking that hope away with multiple mind-numbing interceptions. He won the trophy last year in a landslide, and is looking to be the second quarterback in college football history to win the award two years in a row (Anthony Morelli, Penn State QB, was the only other repeat winner from 2006-2007).

Despite Jacory's erratic play, Miami looks to be in the driver's seat for the ACC championship. This week's matchup against Florida State is huge, and whoever wins the game will have great momentum entering the meat of their ACC schedule.

 

Why West Virginia? Because they had the best performance of any Big East team last week. It was their bye week, you say? Yeah, I know. I realize I give the business to the Big East pretty much every week, but the conference is pretty awful. Rutgers, a team that many thought could win the league at the beginning of the year, lost to Tulane on Saturday. Cincinnati treats every game as an opportunity to show the nation how much they miss Brian Kelly, and Pittsburgh is coached by Dave Wannstedt. What else is there to say?

A team that West Virginia might have to look out for is South Florida. Other than a second half collapse against Florida, the Bulls have looked mediocre this season. These two teams will meet up in eight days on a Thursday night, so if you don't have yard work or laundry to do, the game will be on ESPN.

Sugar Bowl: Auburn vs. TCU

Are you sitting there thinking, wait, where did Alabama go, they've been slotted in the Sugar Bowl all season?! Logic would suggest two options; one being that they looked unimpressive against Florida and were knocked out of this article entirely, and two being that they looked incredible against Florida and moved up to a better bowl. I'll let that tickle your brain for a little while.

Why Auburn? Because I still haven't decided which team is second best in the SEC; Auburn or Arkansas. Both teams have fantastic quarterbacks and a few questions on defense -- the only real difference I see in these teams is that one of them has already played the SEC's best and one of them hasn't. Arkansas came up short after having a 10-point lead against Alabama two weeks ago, but they looked really good despite the loss. Auburn gets a tune-up game against Kentucky this weekend before they host the Razorbacks the following weekend. That should be a good one.

Note that I didn't mention LSU even though they're technically a top-10 team right now. If anyone has actually watched an LSU game, you'd know I wouldn't attach this article to a 10 foot pole and bring it anywhere near the Tigers. 

Why TCU? Because the media loves little engines that can beat inferior competition! For the second consecutive week, TCU struggled with an opponent they should have blasted. Two weeks ago, they needed a come from behind victory against SMU, and this week they took a meager 6-0 lead into halftime against a three loss Colorado State team. TCU's offense finally came to life in the second half and the defense pitched a shutout, but when you're a non-AQ team trying to fight for BCS respect, every style point counts. For some reason, they remain ahead of teams like Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Auburn in the rankings. That won't last long if this funk continues.

Fiesta Bowl: Nebraska vs. Iowa

This is the other matchup that didn't change from last week. Congratulations to both Iowa and Nebraska for holding their ground.

Why Nebraska? Because they're not Texas, and they're not Oklahoma. I still think Nebraska is going to win the Big 12, and nothing I saw during the Red River Rivalry made me doubt that. It's unfortunate that the Cornhuskers and Sooners don't meet during the regular season, but with the way things look, they'll end up meeting in the conference title game. If Oklahoma keeps winning, they'll force their way back into this article (they've been staring at TCU's slot with lust in their eyes for weeks now). What does any of this have to do with Nebraska? Nothing, but hey, it was Nebraska's bye week. It's not like this paragraph is going to up and write itself, so I have to fill it with something.

Why Iowa? Because head coach Kirk Ferentz continued his dominance over Penn State in a big way this weekend. Iowa throttled the Nittany Lions 24-3 this past Saturday in a game that wasn't even that close. Iowa out-gained Penn State 148 yards to one in the first quarter (yeah, you read that right), and jumped out to an early 17-0 lead. After that, Iowa rode behind their ridiculous defense to an easy victory. That defense will have to rest up and take advantage of the bye week, because the Hawkeyes will be traveling to Ann Arbor  to face Denard Robinson and the the third best rushing attack in the country on October 16. You know that yard work and laundry you were going to ignore so you can watch the West Virginia - South Florida game? Go ahead and get that stuff done during the Big East pillow fight so you can tune into this one.

Rose Bowl: Oregon vs. Boise State

Oregon drops out of the National Championship this week despite their 21 point victory over a top-10 ranked Stanford team. The demotion has less to do with anything Oregon did (although the lackluster defense plays a small part) and more to do with how dominant Alabama has looked so far this season. More on that after I ask "Why Oregon?"

Why Oregon? The Ducks continue to put up video-game numbers on offense, but in their last two games combined, Oregon has given up 62 points and over 1,100 yards of offense. That kind of hemorrhaging is Michigan-like, and the old cliche, "defense wins championships" is cliche for a reason. Seriously, does anyone in the Pac 10 want to perform well on that side of the ball? I'm starting to think the concept of defense was a tangible item during the Lewis and Clark Expedition that fell off the wagon somewhere near the Nebraska-Wyoming border. <~ Historical humor.

Still, the Ducks were able to regain their composure after a horrible start to their showdown with the Cardinal. After being down 21-3 early, Oregon finished the game outscoring Stanford 49-10. It seemed as though Oregon's defense created some momentum for themselves in the second half, so let's see if they can keep that up going into next week's game against lowly Washington State.

Why Boise State? Because they won their game against New Mexico State 953 - 0, or something. It's going to get harder and harder to write new things about Boise State as the season progresses, because it's basically going to be the same thing week after week: Boise wins by a billion KELLEN MOORE FOR HEISMAN! Here's what the next month and a half looks like for the Broncos: Toledo, San Jose State, Louisiana Tech, Hawaii, Idaho, and Fresno State. They have to run through this gauntlet before the totally-not-manufactured-by-the-media-top-25-match-up with Nevada. Can't wait. <~ Sarcastic humor.

National Championship Game: Ohio State vs. Alabama

I can already hear the chants... SEC! SEC! SEC! I'm not saying I think Alabama would win if the Buckeyes were to go up against them, but fans of SEC! teams chant this whether it makes sense or not. And I, like any normal person, hate it. 

Why Ohio State? Because they're still the same exact team they were two weeks ago (minus Tyler Moeller). I honestly can't wrap my mind around the media's sudden panic over the Buckeyes. I watched Jessie Palmer literally rant about how the Buckeyes need to tighten up their passing game, "because if they can't pass for over 100 yards against Illinois, what are they going to do when the real teams start appearing on their schedule?" Really Jessie Palmer? It's like they pay these guys to not watch the games and then have them make asinine comments about the stats. Anyone watching that game could see that Tressel pulled in the offensive barrels because of a variety of factors: the ridiculous wind, Pryor's gimpy leg and Illinois ability to implode. How does one game inspire so much doubt? The media have the memory of goldfish sometimes: What?! They only scored 24 points against Illinois? I'm going to forget that going into this game, the Buckeyes were scoring almost 50 points a game and have one of the most balanced run/pass offenses in the country. I'm going to forget that moving the ball against this team is about as easy as licking your elbow. It's time to PANIC!

Hasty reactions and decisions like these are the reason stuff like this exists.

Why Alabama: Because as much as I hate to admit it, they're the best looking team in the country right now. The offense is looking down right unstoppable with Mark Ingram and Trent Richardson running the ball and with Greg McElroy not throwing a ton of interceptions so Mark Ingram and Trent Richardson can run the ball some more (run-on intended for effect). Their schedule still remains murderous, but it's hard to imagine a team knocking the Crimson Tide off.

An interesting note -- Alabama entered this season ranked number one in the country despite having to replace nine starters on defense. Through five games, the offense has been efficient and the team leads the country in average scoring defense (only allowing nine points a game). Does any of this ring any bells? It should, because that was the exact same case for Ohio State when they ran the table to the National Championship in 2006. I'm not saying these two teams are carbon copies of each other -- Alabama still has a long way to go. But that much inexperience on defense tends to rear its ugly head at the most inoportune times (like in Glendale on January 8, 2007).

Like I said, it's too early to tell if Alabama and the 2006 Buckeyes have a similar DNA. I'm just praying to God that they do.

BCeStimation Archive:

Week Four

Week Three

Week Two

Week One

Preseason