Written by David Regimbal

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The BCeStimation is a weekly column that predicts which 10 teams will make it to the Orange Bowl, Sugar Bowl, Fiesta Bowl, Rose Bowl and National Championship game. 

Halloween weekend provided gruesome deaths for two of college football's undefeated teams. Both Missouri and Michigan State were routed on the road by ranked opponents. I'm not one to gloat, but I just want to point out the fact that I knew this was going to happen and totally called it in last week's article. So if everyone could just shoot me an email and tell me how awesome I am, that'd be great. This writing-machine feeds on props people, so give it up.

As a result of those two losses, the BCS picture becomes a little bit clearer going into November. And when I say a little bit clearer, I mean microscopic. Let's get to the predictions.

Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. Pitt

Florida State makes an awful exit from the BCeStimation this week with their recent loss to North Carolina State. It's like when someone is walking out of a room you're in and farts right before they hit the door. Yeah, all of us reading this article are basically sitting in the mist of a Florida State fart. Something doesn't seem right about that.

Why Virginia Tech? Because Florida State lost. Maybe I'm overreacting a little bit, but the Seminoles have not looked good in the two games they've dropped. Not to say that Virginia Tech didn't look bad in their two losses; as a matter of fact, their inexplicable defeat at the hands of James Madison continues to be one of the worst losses of the season (if not the worst) for any team. But the Hokies play good defense in an ACC kind of way and the offense has been putting up some serious points since the James Madison game. Frank Beamer seems to have that league figured out like Jim Tressel does the Big Ten, and until someone knocks them off, I guess I'm forced to put them in here.

Why Pitt? Because the Panthers were able to shake off a bad start against Louisville with two second half touchdowns, giving them a 20-3 win. After Pitt dropped three of their first five games (with their two wins coming against New Hampshire and Florida Atlantic), the Panthers looked like a character from a Rob Zombie movie post-brutal-death-scene. Ladies and gentlemen, your Big East front-runner! Unfortunately for Pitt, they're about to enter the meat of the Big East schedule... actually, let me rephrase. Unfortunately for Pitt, they're about to enter the lettuce of the Big East Schedule (there is no meat to any Big East Schedule... ever) with road games against UConn, South Florida and Cincinnati, and a home game against West Virginia the day after Thanksgiving. Think about this if you want to give yourself a headache -- we're two Pitt losses and a three-game Syracuse win streak away from the Orange getting a BCS bid. What is this world coming to?

Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. TCU

Remember last week when I said I was running out of ways to introduce / hype this game? Well, this might be the last week these two teams are paired together. TCU jumped Boise in this week's BCS rankings, and if the Horned Frogs notch a big win over fifth ranked Utah this weekend, they'll cement the non AQ pecking order. If this happens, TCU will be going to the Rose Bowl and Boise will have to find a new home.

Why Alabama? Because none of their key players committed any felonies during the bye-week, so they're just as good of a team as they were before. The Tide were able to rest up for what should be a fun night game at LSU this weekend. Of course, because the SEC schedule makers hate Alabama, LSU is coming off their bye-week as well. So if anyone looks tired during this game, it's probably because they're playing at SEC speed, which takes three times the amount of energy that playing at Big Ten speed does.

Why TCU? Because they've been on an insane tear as of late, and that's with taking their schedule into consideration. Over the last five games, the Horned Frogs have held their opponents to under three and a half points a game. That is incredible, regardless of who you're playing. During that stretch, they've averaged a hair under 38 points, so it's not just the defense that's winning games for Christian Texans. As I mentioned earlier, things will get decidedly harder for TCU this week as they travel to Utah to play the undefeated and fifth ranked Utes.

Fiesta Bowl: Ohio State vs. Nebraska

I wanted to throw myself into a depression, so I went back to the preseason edition of this article and looked at the National Championship game I predicted. Wanna take a guess at who I had in Glendale? Yep, Ohio State and Nebraska. Now here we are, nine weeks into the season and I have the same two teams in Glendale, they're just not playing for it all. Sad trombone sound.

Why Ohio State? Because Michigan State lost, creating the crazy four way tie at the top of the Big Ten. This should be one of the most entertaining November's of Big Ten football in recent memory with Iowa, Michigan State, Ohio State and Wisconsin all chasing a piece of the conference title. Ohio State has the hardest path of the four remaining teams, but I like their chances because I think they're the best team of the bunch. And no, I haven't forgotten about Wisconsin... I will never forget about Wisconsin, but it's just my opinion that if those two teams met on a neutral field 10 times, Ohio State would win nine of them (last sentence was inspired by Terrelle Pryor himself). I know that this argument, coming from an Ohio State fan, has all the authenticity of an Olive Garden commercial, but still.

Regardless of what I think, the BCS computers hate Ohio State this year. The Buckeyes have crushed their last two opponents since they lost to Wisconsin and dropped one spot in the BCS poll. After beating Minnesota by 42 points this past weekend, they were leap frogged in the polls by an idle LSU team. Literally, LSU did nothing last week, played no opponent, and they jumped Ohio State in the polls. Any of you holding out hope that the Buckeyes could make the title game should let it go now. The Buckeyes computer average (which is what's holding them back) should improve dramatically if they can go into Iowa stadium and knock off the Hawkeyes. I think the Bucks will do that, finish the season 11-1, and get picked up by the Fiesta Bowl as an "at-large" bid. But if they stumble in November, Ohio State could find themselves in the Outback Bowl.

Why Nebraska? Because Roy Helu Jr. exploded for 307 yards rushing on Saturday, helping Nebraska notch an impressive victory over one of college football's seven unbeaten teams. Some people were looking at Missouri and thinking "Paper Tigers", but regardless of what you think, Nebraska reestablished itself as the top team in the North division. With an inside track to the Big 12 championship game, the Cornhuskers will benefit from an easy back-end of their schedule with contests against Iowa State, Kansas, Texas A&M and Colorado. Although Baylor is leading the South division right now (yeah, you read that right), the Cornhuskers should expect to see Oklahoma in the not-ridiculously-named "Dr Pepper Big 12 Championship Game".

Rose Bowl: Wisconsin vs. Boise State

It might not last long, but as it stands, Wisconsin has the inside track to the Rose Bowl. We won't really know who will get the bid until the last week of November, when all the tie-breakers and BCS standings are set in stone. Boise is also on shaky ground as I already explained with TCU jumping over the Broncos this past weekend. If TCU beats Utah, they'll be smelling roses in the "Week Ten" edition of this article.

Why Wisconsin? Because Wisconsin has a very manageable schedule to close out the year with contests against Purdue, Indiana, Michigan and Northwestern. Michigan State is the other one loss Big Ten team that has an easy remaining schedule, but the Badgers have a huge leg up on the Spartans in the latest BCS poll. Wisconsin is still hoping for Ohio State and Michigan State to drop one more game to solidify their spot here, but right now, Wisconsin is hanging on to the Rose Bowl by a thread. If the Buckeyes win impressively in two weeks against Iowa, the Badgers will probably get jumped.

Why Boise State? Because Boise continues to murder the teams on their awful schedule. Admittedly, I hate on the Broncos quite a bit in this article. The Broncos have always been a team that just annoys me for some reason. But here's the thing; I think Boise is BCS worthy. The way they win games is impressive, and their track record in the BCS justifies them being here. I just have an issue with them getting National Championship consideration. It's not fair to the teams that play a harder schedule. I know that seems backwards because the media always claims that it's not fair that Boise gets left out when it comes to the title game. In a perfect world, we would have a playoff. Until that happens, no one except the two teams invited are going to be happy about it. But to let the Broncos in the title game, it'd be like letting the Indians play through a majority of their 182 game schedule against minor-league teams, including playoffs, on their way to the world series while the Yankees and Red Sox had to play all the big boys. Would that be fair?

National Championship Game: Auburn vs. Oregon

Both Auburn and Oregon survived road games this past weekend, putting an end to the curse of the BCeStimation. Who knew that Cam Newton and LaMichael James were witch doctors capable of breaking curses?

Why Auburn? Because Cam Newton continued his brilliance against Ole Miss this past Saturday with 274 total yards, two touchdown passes and a touchdown reception (last stat was probably inspired by Terrelle Pryor himself). The Tigers polished off the Rebels and only have two SEC opponents left on their regular season schedule. After playing Chattanooga this weekend at home (read -- bye week), they host the Georgia Bulldogs. The following week, they have an actual bye-week before they travel to Tuscaloosa for what could be the game of the year against Alabama.

Why Oregon? Because they overcame a close three quarters of football against USC by blowing the pillars off the Coliseum, scoring the game's last 24 points. The amount of points the defense continues to give up is concerning, but it doesn't look like there's a team in the Pac 10 that has any desire to try and stop the Ducks offense. I guess it'll be a moot point until Oregon reaches their bowl game, just like it did last year. Obviously Auburn isn't a defensive juggernaut, but they still have the ability to come up with some stops, unlike the defenses that Oregon is playing against week to week. Fortunately for Oregon, they get to play a bad Washington team that won't have their best player, Jake Locker, lining up at quarterback (injury)

With Auburn playing Chattanooga and Oregon playing a Jake Lockerless Washington team this week, I'd say the chances of these two teams holding this spot in next weeks article are high, but then again..... this has been a crazy college football year.

BCeStimation Archive:

Week Eight 

Week Seven

Week Six

Week Five

Week Four

Week Three

Week Two

Week One

Preseason