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Adam Burke

sportsbookBowl season totals can be one of the most profitable bets of the college football season. Generally speaking, the over/under number is set by taking the average offensive and defensive output for each team. If the two teams score 22.8 and 31.6 points per game, respectively, while allowing 17.6 and 29.5 points per game, respectively, the total will be somewhere in the ballpark of 50-51 points.

However, these numbers have to be taken in context during bowl season. A team that struggled in conference play against quality SEC defenses may now be playing a bad Big Ten defense or a marginal ACC defense. A SEC team that averages 21.8 points per game could be playing a slower, less talented Big Ten defense. That should increase their scoring output, possibly causing the total to be lower than it should be. Similarly, a team averaging 35.2 points per game might be playing the best defense they’ve seen all season and that will slow down their offense.

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Adam Burke

nhlWednesday marked the 20th anniversary of Gary Bettman as Commissioner of the National Hockey League. Bettman has had a lot of ups, a lot of downs, has been praised and vilified, perhaps more than any commissioner in professional sports, during those 20 years. Twenty years that include three lockouts, a labor stoppage with referees, and the proliferation of hockey to non-traditional U.S. markets like Phoenix, Tampa Bay, San Jose, Nashville, Atlanta, and Columbus. Bettman is not responsible for everything that has happened during his tenure, both the good and the bad, but right now, all he is known for is the lockout that threatens the entire 2012-13 season.

Earlier this week, the league announced the cancellation of games through December 30. The next round of cancellations could very well include the rest of the schedule. Negotiations, even those held with a federal mediator, seem to be at a standstill. Talks continue, possibly as a token gesture to fans, because the two sides still appear to be very far apart.

Commissioners in every sport are booed relentlessly whenever the fans are given the opportunity to voice their opinions. Bettman is no different. His reputation will probably be irreparably broken by this lockout, as two good Olympic tournaments and growing distaste for the NBA was taking the NHL to new heights. Rule changes that benefitted the fans, including the institution of shootouts, a tougher stance on obstruction penalties, and other measures to enhance goal scoring, now seem like a distant memory with NHL arenas dark into the holidays.

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Lars Hancock

romeo facepalm

Romeo Crennel comes back to Cleveland this weekend.

I’m really conflicted about this. From everything I hear, Romeo is a genuinely nice guy, the kind of guy you want to succeed. Given the horrible personal tragedy the man personally witnessed last week, you can’t help but feel bad for him. Misery seems to find Romeo, and he seems to be the classic embodiment of the “nice guys finish last” adage.

On the other hand, how good is it not to see him on our sidelines anymore? He led an era of pathetic floundering, where the on-field product was like Boones Farm in a league of first growth Bordeaux wines. There was never any hope, never any competence, never any progress under him, so we’re happy to be rid of the man. Now he’s back bringing his Mad Dog 20/20 to the other sideline.

So do we love the big lug, or loathe the blockhead?

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Adam Burke

sportsbookTis the season to be jolly. No, not Christmas. Bowl Season! Bowl season is the college football bettor’s last chance to show or maintain a profit for the college football season. It’s a very interesting time of year. The opening lines have already been hit and set where a portion of the market thinks they should be. However, what does a line move really mean for bowl season?

Consider that initial bets are either from professionals who think a line is really far off or from public bettors who are trying to act like pros. With early lines, it doesn’t take a lot of money to move the market. One or two limit bets may turn a -2 into a -6, depending on what sportsbook you’re looking at. It’s hard to ascertain where a move is coming from. A lot of professionals will hope to grab middles during bowl season. For example, a line that opens -6.5 may jump to -11. Professionals may have -6.5 and +11 and they have a good shot at winning both plays. For professionals, they want the best number. They won’t necessarily handicap the teams right away, but they’ll grab the best number they can on whatever side the line will move.

The thing about bowl season is that lines become very stale, very quickly. There will be periods of movement, but, eventually, most of the heavy hitters will have taken their positions and the lines will pretty much stay where they are. It’s hard to bet on stale lines, because you’re likely getting the worst of the number, or close to it.

Another difficulty with bowl season is understanding how stepping up in class will affect a team. The Big Ten is an underdog in every one of their bowl games, in large part because most of their bowl games are against SEC opponents. The Big Ten is not a good conference and that is built into the line. Public money is undoubtedly going to come in on the SEC teams in greater volume than the Big Ten. The books have already accounted for that.

Then, there’s coaching changes. When Brian Kelly led Cincinnati to the Sugar Bowl and the #5 ranking in the country in 2009, they were talked about to possibly upset Urban Meyer’s Florida Gators. Before the bowl game, Kelly got hired at Notre Dame. The Bearcats closed a 12.5-point underdog. They lost 51-24, ending their bid at a perfect season. As a different example altogether, Jerry Kill left Northern Illinois before their 2010 bowl against Fresno State for the Minnesota head coaching job. The Huskies, a 1.5-point favorite, won 40-17.

With more coaching changes likely on the horizon, it’s important to determine how much a coaching change matters. It’s all on a case-by-case basis. Bret Bielema left Wisconsin for Arkansas, after hanging 70 on Nebraska and getting the 7-5 Badgers a Rose Bowl berth. Dave Doeren left Northern Illinois for North Carolina State, making it the fourth time in four years that the Huskies have had a different head coach for their bowl game than they did for the regular season. Mark Stoops, the defensive coordinator for Florida State, who will play the NIU Huskies, accepted the head coaching position at Kentucky. Darrell Hazell, who had a very impressive run with Kent State, has left for Purdue. All of these coaching changes will have an affect on the game. It’s up to you to determine that affect.

Another element, overplayed in my opinion, is motivation. People are arguing that the Georgia Bulldogs won’t play with max effort in the Capital One Bowl against Nebraska. The Bulldogs were a play away from beating Alabama and going to the National Championship game, and now, they’re playing a non-BCS bowl game on New Year’s Day. That’s a hard thing to bounce back from. On the flip side, Nebraska should come in motivated after being embarrassed in the Big Ten Championship Game. So, you have two different mindsets and almost a month to determine how the teams will come out and play. Who’s to say that Georgia won’t be pissed off and make a statement against a mediocre Big Ten school?

Western Kentucky is playing in their first ever bowl game, after being snubbed last year despite having eight wins. They play Central Michigan, a team that is just thrilled to actually be in a bowl game after posting back-to-back three win seasons and winning their final three games just to become bowl-eligible. The common thought seems to be that WKU has a lot of motivation and CMU is just happy to play a 13th game. Who’s to say that CMU won’t want to win that bowl game, too?

University of Southern Cal and retiring defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin have had a difficult season. Ranked #1 in the preseason polls, they’re playing on New Year’s Eve Day in the Sun Bowl against Georgia Tech’s triple option offense. How hard will USC prepare, facing a gimmick offense and a very bad defense?

All of these are things to consider for bowl season and there’s no shortage of time to determine what they’re worth and what they mean. Line moves are trickier to read, so you’re better off trusting your own breakdown of the game and crunching the numbers. Next week, I’ll talk more about bowl game totals, as I find that there is a lot of value in being familiar with offensive and defensive schemes and that the long layoff to prepare can be a major deciding factor in whether to play over or under.

Adam Burke

nhlThe owners and the players' association are finally starting to make some progress. Interestingly, the progress is coming without Commissioner Gary Bettman or NHLPA Chief Donald Fehr in the room. Negotiations were headed up by Deputy Commissioner Bill Daly and Steve Fehr represented the players. This appeared to be a last-ditch effort to save the season, with the all-important Board of Governors meeting taking place on Wednesday afternoon. Talks seemed to be positive and both sides left the table hopeful for a resolution.

Six owners were part of the talks, a group constructed of teams who would have varying requests. Three of the owners were from Canadian teams, Toronto, Winnipeg, and Calgary, two were from strong hockey markets in Pittsburgh and Boston, and another was from Tampa Bay. Eighteen players also took part in the meeting, including big names like Sidney Crosby, Shane Doan and Ryan Miller. Neither side would say that a deal was imminent, however, both sides believe some steps in the right direction were made.

At this stage, any bit of good news on the labor front is welcomed with open arms. The closer the lockout moves to the start of 2013, the likelihood of the cancellation 2012-13 season grows. The players, seemingly encouraged with the progress, collaborated with Donald Fehr, the head of the players' association, to finalize a proposal to submit sometime this week. No word on what any of their concessions might be or what the will ask of the owners, however the players taking a more assertive stance on things would be a good sign for negotiations. After all, the players who are in that room are the ones who chose not go overseas and play, so they aren't making any money right now, unlike their breathren collecting paychecks to play hockey.

No details were given by Bettman on what transpired at the Board of Governors meeting. Columbus Blue Jackets President John Davidson said he was "happy with the information that he got". Davidson is still waiting to really dig into the problems that the Blue Jackets have. He was hired in October to serve as Team President and has yet to really be able to dive in. Considering that there's a lot that needs to be done to help the Blue Jackets, Davidson would probably like to get started sooner rather than later.

In any event, it appears that negotiations are moving in the right direction and that a shortened season could soon be a reality. Desperation appears to be setting in on both sides, as it took the NHL a very long time to recover from the lockout that cost the entire 2004-05 season.

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A brief update on the Lake Erie Monsters, who are struggling mightily right now. The team has lost seven of its last nine games and has dropped to eighth in the Western Conference standings. The Monsters have also allowed four or more goals in five of their last seven games, all losses. To show how good the team was playing early in the season, even with losing seven of nine and allowing a lot of goals in the process, the team is exactly even in goal differential.

Mike Sgarbossa leads the way with 19 points in 22 games. The Monsters do not have a player with more than nine goals through 22 games. The goaltending tandem of Sami Aittokallio and Calvin Pickard has dropped off as well, with each guy sporting a goals against average above 2.75. 

The Monsters head to Charlotte for a pair of games this weekend against the Checkers, the Carolina Hurricanes affiliate. 

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