Now that November is here, a lot will be made about weather, fatigue, and travel in the betting market. One of the biggest keys to staying in the black as it pertains to betting is to avoid overreaction. Weather, fatigue, and travel are all examples of things that bettors overreact to. Determining fact from fiction and knowing how these elements are built into the line is something that takes a lot of practice and a lot of understanding.
First, we’ll look at weather. Snow will start flying, temperatures will start getting colder, making the ball harder, giving the muscles less explosion, and cold rain will make the ball very difficult to grip. A big newsflash about weather? It’s already built into the line. More often than not, adding additional emphasis to weather can get a bettor in trouble. The line, specifically the total, tends to already reflect projected or actual weather conditions. Keep in mind that a changing number for a total may not have anything to do with where the money is being bet, but rather, a change in the forecast.