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Adam Burke

sportsbookNow that November is here, a lot will be made about weather, fatigue, and travel in the betting market. One of the biggest keys to staying in the black as it pertains to betting is to avoid overreaction. Weather, fatigue, and travel are all examples of things that bettors overreact to. Determining fact from fiction and knowing how these elements are built into the line is something that takes a lot of practice and a lot of understanding.

First, we’ll look at weather. Snow will start flying, temperatures will start getting colder, making the ball harder, giving the muscles less explosion, and cold rain will make the ball very difficult to grip. A big newsflash about weather? It’s already built into the line. More often than not, adding additional emphasis to weather can get a bettor in trouble. The line, specifically the total, tends to already reflect projected or actual weather conditions. Keep in mind that a changing number for a total may not have anything to do with where the money is being bet, but rather, a change in the forecast.

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Lars Hancock

 

CheatingToday I decided to order for myself the very same synthetic HGH that most of the NFL uses. It is completely legal to buy, yet a banned substance as it is a “performance enhancing drug”.  Today, I officially became a cheater.

I made this decision because I am old. There isn’t a lot of data as to what HGH does to a person, but it is clear that older people produce less than younger, and it p

lays a role in healing, stamina, metabolism, and overall health. There is compelling data that old guys are creakier, more fragile, and 100% more likely to die from old age than young guys, and as an old guy who is feeling older every day, heck, why not put a couple drops of the fountain of youth on my tongue.

Now I’m not doing this for vanity, personal glory, or profit. Though 100% more likely to win the Tour de France than Lance Armstrong, that goal remains 100% impossible, mainly because I refuse to give 110% to anything (being a strict proponent of the laws of mathematics) and the fact I hate cycling and cyclists. True story: the day before I turned 21, I was going out to the bars to press my luck one last time. Next thing I knew, there’s a public safety officer putting a neck brace on me. Apparently a cyclist riding down the sidewalk blindsided me. With post-concussion symptoms, my 21st birthday pub crawl happened without me as I sat at home and watched ESPN with an ice pack on my ankle, and a lifelong loathing for the spandex-clad scourges of humanity that usurp our streets and sidewalks on two wheels. Note that said cyclist may have been a divine intervention in my life, as young Lars on his 21st with the reins removed may, in fact, have died that night. But still, fuck cyclists.

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Adam Burke

sportsbookThe betting world can be cruel. The best in the world hit 55-56% of the time and the greatest approach 60%. That means that they’re wrong 40-45% of the time. Bad luck, bad bounces, turnovers, late injuries, all of these things can turn what seems like a great bet into a loser. A handicapper has to train his mind to focus on the long-term and know that variance is just part of the game.

That’s not easy. Sometimes, it’s just a snowball effect, where every turnover goes against you and you’re getting absolutely no breaks. Periods of time that seem to go on forever. Under bets are screwed by pick sixes and blown coverages. Over bets are ruined by red zone turnovers. Every team you back loses the turnover battle.

One of the strongest weapons that a handicapper has is his mindset. “Scared money don’t make money” is something a lot of gamblers like to say. Betting without confidence can become a real slippery slope. You start to chase. You step out of your comfort zone and bet on teams and games that you are unfamiliar with. You over-extend yourself with the night games, making late wagers trying to recoup some of the day’s losses.

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Adam Burke

davidsonWhile things continue to look rather bleak on the lockout front, Columbus Blue Jackets fans were treated to a beacon of hope on Wednesday afternoon. The team announced that they have hired former St. Louis Blues President of Hockey Operations John Davidson to be the President of Hockey Operations for the Blue Jackets. Davidson, who is widely respected around the league, provides legitimacy to a front office in dire need of experienced personnel.

In Davidson, the Blue Jackets are bringing in a very smart hockey mind that helped the Blues to two playoff appearances and the best record in the Western Conference for the 2011-12 season. Davidson, a former goaltender, believes in building teams from the net out, something that should help the Blue Jackets, who have never had a strong goaltender and defense at the same time. Davidson is also in the Hockey Hall of Fame for his contributions to broadcasting, an honor bestowed upon him in 2009. Davidson is also part of the Hockey Hall of Fame selection committee.

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Lars Hancock

Monkey BusinessTomorrow night I get to go to an 80s party to celebrate my friend’s 40th birthday. I will be donning the Miami Vice look of a white suit, salmon sleeveless and collarless shirt, and wayfarers, which is sure to be awesome and horrifying at the same time. Earlier in the week, however, the costume of choice was going to be a tweed jacket and my Hart for President t-shirt, which my wife reminded me that I had safely tucked away in my closet.

Yes, I have a Hart for president shirt, authentic, from 1987.

To the younger viewers, Gary Hart was the Democratic frontrunner in the 1988 presidential race. The Democrats had just been routed in 1984 by Reagan, and Hart was viewed as the sort of charismatic leader who could restore hope to their party, and early polls indicated such was a reality. However, Mr. Hart couldn’t seem to be faithful to his wife, and in their most glorious moment the National Enquirer (the TMZ of the pre-internet day) broke the news of his longstanding affair with a former Miss South Carolina (who appeared in an episode of Miami Vice), Donna Rice. Back in the puritanical good ol’ days of 1987, such a scandal killed a politician’s career, and when this news broke, Gary Hart dropped out of the race.

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